2020 could have been a quiet offseason for Houston Texans coach-general manager Bill O’Brien.
His team has been subtle in free agency, re-signing cornerbacks Bradley Roby and Vernon Hargreaves while bringing in under-whelming safety Eric Murray from the Cleveland Browns and wide receiver Randall Cobb from the Dallas Cowboys.
In fact, Houston was able to make waves amidst the quiet sports background of COVID-19 with the signing of Philadelphia Eagle Tim Jernigan on Wednesday. The defensive tackle comes on a cheap, incentive-laden deal and certainly has the talent to make up for some of the production lost when D.J. Reader signed for $10 million per season with the lowly Cincinnati Bengals.
However, rather than quiet, unassuming, or maybe even a somewhat pleasant offseason for Texans fans, the spring thus far has been labeled total Armageddon.
O’Brien, in his first full offseason with total front office powers, already under massive scrutiny for his handling of player situations with Kareem Jackson and Jadeveon Clowney, “Nuked” the franchise — he made the executive decision to move on from All-Pro wide receiver Deandre “Nuk” Hopkins by trading him to the Arizona Cardinals.
Hopkins, a three-time All-Pro since being drafted in 2013 by Houston, had become a fan favorite and a staple of the franchise post-Andre Johnson. The dynamic wide receiver is relatively notorious for having the stickiest hands in the league and had developed quite the rapport with franchise quarterback and fellow Clemson alumnus Deshaun Watson.
In return, Houston received a 2020 second-round pick, a 2021 fourth-round pick, and the massive contract of running back David Johnson. Johnson, who emerged with the Cardinals as an All-Pro back in 2016 racking up over 2,000 total yards, has since failed to rush for 1,000 yards in any of the past three seasons. In 201, Johnson rushed for a mere 345 yards and was benched in favor of Kenyan Drake midseason. To add insult to injury, the seemingly declining running back comes with a hefty cap hit of $14.2 million dollars.
Understandably, Houston fans have been livid and no place has the nuclear carnage manifested more so than social media. Scrolling through any team related article, tweet, or free agent whispers, the ridicule of O’Brien and the front office is widespread and possibly well-deserved. Even quarterback Deshaun Watson took to Twitter following the trade to voice his displeasure, tweeting cryptic lyrics that left many to question what his relationship is with the franchise and moving forward.
Las Vegas sportsbooks have Watson as the odds-on favorite to start for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots in 2021.
It is among this uncertainty an argument could be made for the vastly unpopular O’Brien. Like the current seemingly indefinite nature of the COVID-19 “stay-at-home” orders, many fans feel the same way about O’Brien’s term as both Coach and General Manger of the Texans. However, beyond this fact there are major reasons for optimism moving forward into the 2020 regular season.
Bill O’Brien: the general manager
To begin, O’Brien as the general manager, easily the more controversial of his dual-positions, should be discussed. It’s easy to forget that it was only eight months ago when fans were similarly outraged regarding the departure of Jadeveon Clowney. Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo and a third-round pick were the measly return from the crown jewel of Houston’s disaster of a season in 2013.
Three weeks into free agency, Clowney remains unsigned. Sources consistently indicate that Clowney’s asking price is too high for the production he represents as a pass-rusher. His presence in Seattle further confirmed the belief that, although incredibly explosive and a force against the run, Clowney is an inconsistent player who still struggles to get to the quarterback. Even with Mingo released, Texans fans certainly must feel more comfortable with the growing Jacob Martin and a third-round pick compared to shelling out $18 million dollars next year that only gathered 3.0 sacks for Seattle in 13 games. The lack of production, even in a new environment, combined with an absurd asking price from Clowney’s camp may explain the relatively shallow market last September. Not to mention Clowney was allowed to nix his participation in the Miami deal.
The day before Clowney packed his bags for Seattle, O’Brien was allowed to make his staple on the franchise (serving as de facto general manager) when he sold the farm to Miami. Sending two first round picks, a second rounder, and two players who weren’t locks to make the roster, the Texans acquired LT Laremy Tunsil, WR Kenny Stills, and two late-round picks (fourth and sixth round.) Following 2019, where the Texans pick ended up being 26th overall, it’s hard pressed not to argue this trade was a masterpiece.
Deshaun Watson’s sack rate dropped immensely and despite any CBS-touted ‘Tunsilitis’ (Read: Laremy’s proneness to off-side penalties), Tunsil was widely considered one of the best left tackles in the league of 2019.
When speedster wide receiver Will Fuller went down, Stills was able to stepup into that role and work to limit the needed offensive changes. When the trio of Hopkins, Fuller, and Stills were all active, such as a dominant win over New England in Week 13, the offense was lethal.
This week, Tunsil has come out and stated his intent to be the highest paid offensive lineman in the league. Considering that left tackle is debatable the most important position other than quarterback (an argument could be made for edge rusher) Houston fans should be overjoyed that they’re in a position to write that check. Meanwhile Stills is under contract for what should be another productive season working with Watson. If Watson is the franchise, which many believe he is, the picks will not matter when we reflect after Miami makes their second-round selection in 2021. This was a home run.
Before finally discussing the departure of Deandre Hopkins, the midseason acquisitions are worth noting. O’Brien brought in talented players such as Duke Johnson, Gareon Conley, and Vernon Hargreaves. All were factors in a great 10-6 season and project to have even larger roles in 2020. When looking at the cornerbacks Conley and Hargreaves, these players dramatically improved upon joining the Texans. There has always been a direction to acquire affordable talent that fits the scheme, which leads to Nuk.
Last season, Sammy Watkins (Chiefs), Odell Beckham Jr. (Browns), Brandin Cooks (Rams), A.J. Green (Bengals) and Allen Robinson (Bears), T.Y. Hilton (Colts) and Jarvis Landry (Browns) were the seven highest paid wide receivers of the 2019 season. Of those seven receivers, only Watkins made the playoffs and everyone recognizes Super Bowl MVP Patrick Maholmes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill had far more to do with that than the expensive wideout. Simply put, massive wide receiver contracts generally do not correlate to wins in the National Football League. There is a reason Vegas sportsbooks don’t value any position other than quarterback to be worth more than 1-point to the spread.
Reports say that Hopkins, still having three years left on his contract, was planning to sit out the 2020 off-season in pursuit of a larger contract ranging between $18-20 million per year. With J.J. Watt set to make $15.5 million in 2020, Tunsil preparing to set the market at left tackle, and Watson rapidly approaching what could easily be a $40 million per year extension, Hopkins was no longer an economic reality for the Texans.
The departure of No. 10 for Houston fans is certainly a painful one but one that must also be embraced considering the context of the situation. The Texans must avoid entering a salary scenario similar to that of the Los Angeles Rams or the Dallas Cowboys, who are now severely hamstrung with several massive contracts. The Rams were forced to cut-bait this offseason, releasing Todd Gurley and now actively Brandin Cooks. Dallas is in a precarious situation where depth is nearly nonexistent due to the massive extension of every star on their roster.
Position matters in the NFL. Eating the contract of David Johnson for one year before cutting him in the 2021 offseason at a mere $2 million dollar cap hit is more economically sensible than attaching to Hopkins. O’Brien learned in New England that help can be found everywhere at wide receiver assuming you don’t go too cheap. Randall Cobb is a far more reasonable option in 2020 when considering the long-term assembly of the team.
The Texans are building the right way. They are prioritizing finding stars at positions that directly correlate to wins and refusing to be beholden to players who don’t fit that criteria. Houston should still field an above average receiving core in 2020 with Fuller, Cobb, Stills, and a second or third round draft pick. Football is about the quarterback and the Texans are set to hit all three criteria.
- Have a quarterback (Watson)
- Protect your quarterback (Tunsil and Tytus Howard)
- Attack their quarterback (Watt and Whitney Mercilus)
Moving on, let’s delay hitting the panic button on current roster construction and discuss coaching itself.
Bill O’Brien: the coach
To start here, I will admit that I have never been impartial towards O’Brien. It was the absolute ineptitude of the 2-14 squad in 2013 that sparked my interest to watch football more closely and begin watching rookies myself as the Texans held the first pick in every round for the 2014 draft. Since then, O’Brien has fielded a competitive squad in nearly every season. Watching the team scrape together wins despite the presence of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallet, Brock Osweiler, and even Tom Savage during his first three years left a lasting impression.
FS1 host Colin Cowherd often uses the same parameters when discussing how good someone is at their job. When you remove someone’s best year and their worst year and then average everything out, you should have something close to the truth. This is a good tool when discussing businessmen, quarterbacks, and, in this case, O’Brien. The Bill Belichick disciple is 52-44 with Houston since joining in 2014. This has included four playoff appearances and four AFC South titles. If the strong 2018 campaign and its nine-game winning streak were removed, and the disastrous, injury-laden 2017 campaign (4-12), these numbers look slightly better. In those four seasons, O’Brien has a record of 37-27, winning 58% of his games.
Considering Watson was only present for one of those qualifying seasons (2019), it’s not a stretch to say O’Brien represents above average NFL-coaching. That said, everyone has their qualms with O’Brien’s game management throughout the years. This offseason, he’s addressed that.
At the NFL Scouting Combine last month, O’Brien announced that offensive coordinator Tim Kelly will be calling plays. Anthony Weaver has replaced the tenured Romeo Crennel as defensive coordinator. Both of these two should breathe new life into the Texans both schematically and from an energy standpoint. This should allow O’Brien to better serve as both a talent-evaluator and the ultimate clock manager for the Texans moving forward. This will certainly not be the same team from 2019.
Still, there is one final reason to trust O’Brien moving forward.
Bill O’Brien: the czar
There is no choice. The McNair family is clearly infatuated with O’Brien’s leadership and vision for the organization. As long as O’Brien continues to win AFC South titles and keep the Texans in at least preliminary conversations regarding Super Bowl contenders, there appears to be no clear path for his exit. If O’Brien can “drop the Nuk” and still advance with full support of ownership, it is uncertain what else could derail his current power grab.
The return on the Hopkins trade is questionable. The Clowney situation seems to be handled poorly. O’Brien’s decision making is as annoying as the flooding on I-45. However, now is probably not the time to think about dwell on it.
All Texans fans can do is buckle up, because no one is sure when the O’Brien regime will be over.
