SNOWBALL effects are a very real phenomenon in electoral politics.
Although Scotland was no more than an onlooker in the recent round of English local elections, the TV coverage of both the campaign and the results was beamed into Scottish homes on a daily basis, and it therefore always seemed possible that the momentum generated for Reform UK would make itself felt in any new Scottish poll.
Nevertheless, the scale of the Reform breakthrough suggested by the latest Survation poll for True North is causing surprise, because it would transform a party with no real Scottish organisation or leadership into the main opposition to the SNP government after next year's Holyrood election.
It's important to stress that, even if the poll is accurate, Reform's second place is far from secure. They are actually only tied with Labour for second place on the constituency ballot, and it's their statistically insignificant two-point advantage over Labour on the list ballot that pushes them clear of Anas Sarwar's party on the overall seats projection.
Sarwar can perfectly reasonably hope that once the hype over the local elections and the Runcorn by-election subsides, Labour may be able to re-establish themselves as the closest challenger to the SNP. But even if they do so, it'll almost certainly be as an extremely distant challenger, and they'll still constantly have to worry about Reform nipping at their heels. That'll be a far cry from the position less than a year ago when Sarwar was being touted as the nailed-on next First Minister.
For the Scottish Conservatives, the threat is far more existential in nature. On both the constituency and the list ballot, Survation suggest that Reform are closing in on having double the support of the Tories. This hasn't come out of the blue – in numerous local government by-elections in Scotland over the last few months, the Tories have polled far behind Reform. Even as early as last July's General Election, there were pockets of Scotland, most notably the city of Glasgow, where Reform had already overtaken the Tories as the leading right-wing party.
For decades, the prospect of a "Tory-Free Scotland" has been speculated about, but there were always two missing ingredients – an alternative political force capable of attracting the substantial minority of genuinely right-wing voters in Scotland, and the absence of a total collapse in Tory support south of the Border which would end any realistic chance for Scots to vote for a Tory government at Westminster.
The first of those ingredients is now undoubtedly in place, and the second is at least moving into play, as Reform extend their advantage over the Tories in the latest batch of Britain-wide polls. The seats projection from the Survation poll suggests that Reform would have eight more Holyrood seats than the Tories, and if that happens, it might move the remaining Conservative voters in Scotland closer to the tipping-point where they conclude that their party no longer serves any real function and should be abandoned.
A key question now is what the reaction of liberal Unionist voters will be if Scottish politics increasingly becomes a straight fight between the SNP and Reform. They might demand the right to opt out of that choice altogether, which would open up a potential opportunity for the Liberal Democrats, who according to Survation are already polling relatively strongly and are on course to double their current tally of five Holyrood seats. To take full advantage of that opening, though, Alex Cole-Hamilton (below) and his troops would probably have to break out of the SNP-bashing comfort zone they have been stuck in for more than a decade, and train their fire on a Unionist opponent instead. It remains to be seen how willing and able they are to do that.
The dream scenario for the independence movement would be if Unionism itself becomes so closely identified in the public imagination with Reform, and with hard-line Reform policies such as withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, that many No voters decide that a viable liberal Unionist option no longer really exists.
Already Survation have the SNP and Greens on course to retain a small pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, so any substantial increase in the number of Unionists "cross-voting" for pro-indy parties could make that majority quite sizeable.
