The first round of France’s presidential election on Sunday has shown how the country’s political landscape, once dominated by the traditional social democratic and conservative parties, has shifted to a more polarised direction. While Emmanuel Macron, the sitting President, came top with 27.8% of the votes, Marine Le Pen, a far-right, anti-immigrant leader, finished second with 23.1%. The conservative and socialist parties crumbled — with a combined 6.7% vote — while the far-right and leftist candidates won more than half of the polled votes. The run-off, on April 24, will determine who is to lead the European Union’s second largest economy. Opinion polls suggest that the race will not be easy for Mr. Macron as Ms. Le Pen, whose popularity was at 16% in February, has gained a lot of ground. If in 2017, Mr. Macron defeated Ms. Le Pen in the run-off with a whopping 32 percentage point margin, his lead now, say polls, is between two to six points. While resentment over inflation and the rising cost of living remains high, Ms. Le Pen is offering a cocktail of hard nationalism and anti-establishment politics to win over disaffected voters without losing her far-right base.
Five years ago, there was large-scale consolidation among the voters from across the political spectrum, often referred to as the ‘republican front’, behind Mr. Macron. They wanted to defeat Ms. Le Pen’s dangerous politics, which they believed was against the French republican values. The biggest challenge he faces today is in keeping this coalition intact while facing a more powerful rival. Leaders of the conservative and leftist parties have endorsed Mr. Macron for the run-off, but it is not clear, given the political changes under way, whether their voters would follow suit. In 2017, Mr. Macron was a new face — an outsider with a liberal, progressive heart. But as President, his pro-business policies have alienated leftist voters, who supported Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round. Mr. Macron’s decision to close down some mosques and crack down on religious organisations have also led to cracks in the social coalition that backed him in 2017. Ms. Le Pen, already powered by the anti-immigrant hard nationalists, is trying to win over the anti-capitalist voters angry with Mr. Macron. She has also taken a nuanced view of the Ukraine war. While she has condemned it, she is critical of the sanctions, which Mr. Macron supported in coordination with the EU and the U.S. Her argument is that the sanctions are hurting French consumers. She also wants to take French troops out of NATO’s military command. A Le Pen win would alter the character of France’s polity and challenge the combined efforts of the EU and NATO in opposing Putin’s war on Ukraine. This possibility is what makes the April 24 run-off one of the most consequential presidential elections in France in decades.
