Cyclones have been notoriously hard to predict over decades, but a new scientific model could prove to be a circuit-breaker, particularly in the cyclone-battered Pacific.
The University of Newcastle, in collaboration with New Zealand's National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, has released a new predictive tool call Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP), which can forecast cyclones up to four months in advance.
Current modelling only produces forecasts one month in advance, while actual cyclone paths may not necessarily follow predicted paths.
Traditionally, tropical cyclones have been hard to predict but the new model captures the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere to provide an outlook for the number of tropical cyclones that will occur during the cyclone season.
"We consider the most recent changes in ocean and atmospheric variability, and that enables us to refine the outlooks based on what's just happened," Andrew Magee, a specialist in climate change's effects on extreme weather events at Newcastle University, told the ABC.
Dr Magee added this could buy Pacific governments lifesaving time to prepare for the region's annual cyclone season, which runs between November and April.
There are already nine tropical cyclones predicted in the south-west Pacific for the upcoming season.
New tool could be a Pacific life-saver
Earlier this year, category five Cyclone Harold tore through Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, and the Solomon Islands, leaving a trail of ruin and killing more than 25 people.
For ship captains like Eddie Varou from the Solomon Islands, any progress in cyclone forecasting is exciting and would benefit many in the region.
"Those islands depend entirely on fruits, so if you can predict which months cyclones can come, then these people will have three months to prepare their food, their rice, so when the cyclone hits, they are already ready," Mr Varou said.
"I hope our Government can take this on."
Neville Koop, a meteorologist from Na Draki Weather in Fiji, said the research was a "major step" in helping authorities solve community-based issues such as disaster preparedness leading up to cyclone season.
"This provides the expert level much more information about likely scenarios for cyclone activity, both short term … over the course of days and weeks, right out to seasonal and into annual [forecasts]," Mr Koop said.
