Nils Pratley hits the nail on the head (Lobbyists may be having a field day justifying HS2’s burgeoning cost, but a rethink is long overdue, 21 January). In 2009 I reported to the promoters that the benefits of high-speed rail beyond the south-east would require a well-integrated national plan for complementary measures (transport and non-transport). Without such a plan – and a regional delivery mechanism – high-speed rail risked making regional disparities worse.
Fast forward to today: such limited regional mechanisms as existed have been dismantled, while the concept of high-speed rail has given birth to the present scheme. The case for HS2 rested heavily on the economic benefit of user time savings, making speed vital. This led to a higher speed specification than elsewhere in Europe, adding to the cost and environmental impact, while reducing flexibility in routing.
The business case was shored up by arguments based on capacity to enable increased patronage (and fare income). It was only after this was challenged on grounds of practicality and cost-effectiveness that regional development got top billing. These changes in fundamental purpose should have triggered a rethink of the specification and routing, but did not. Instead, effort has focused on beefing up estimates of regional benefit.
It is to the credit of HS2 Ltd that in 2016 it commissioned me to peer-review an innovative model of the scheme’s regional impact, in spite of the sceptical viewpoint summarised above. While I cannot divulge the review’s conclusion, the fact that HS2 Ltd did not publish it (or another at the same time from a distinguished academic economist) is significant.
Before his death in 2014, Sir Peter Hall (a longtime supporter of high-speed rail) quoted my views in his passionate argument for a rethink of HS2. This rethink is long overdue.
Alan Wenban-Smith
Birmingham
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