A-level exams will go ahead in Wales next summer, but not GCSEs or AS-levels, if recommendations from Qualifications Wales are accepted by the Welsh Government.
If agreed, GCSEs and AS grades would be awarded by coursework and a new form of assessments set externally and marked by exam board the WJEC.
At A-level, one exam per subject would be sat with assessment and “set tasks” would also be used to help reach grades.
The proposals add that there should be a backup opportunity for students to take the exam if they are ill or self-isolating.
Questions asked would be similar to those already used in exams and there should be a “clear basis on which to appeal results”.
The recommendations are set out in a letter to Education Minister Kirsty Williams from the independent regulator.
It warns: "The current public health crisis means that we cannot be confident that timetabled examinations will be able to take place as usual next year."
Qualifications Wales say new assessment arrangements should be agreed with exam board the WJEC. They would not be the same as this year’s Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs).
Qualifications Wales, which was largely blamed for this summer’s grading fiasco after exams were cancelled, said it believes its recommendations are the fairest way forward after learners missed large amounts of school due to the pandemic.
CAGs, as they are known, were used to award grades this year after there was public outcry over downgrading by the Qualifications Wales agreed algorithm which was used to standardise results so they would be similar to previous years.
But the regulator warned the minister that “changes to the way qualifications are assessed are not a panacea that will address the underlying issue of lost learning”.
Inequality and class closures have both been flagged up by headteachers and parents as major issues for students. As well as schools being shut in the first lockdown many have been told to stay off school to isolate this term - some for longer periods of isolation than others.
There are also fears that children don’t have equal support with remote learning or equal access to devices, despite a programme to provide them.
Qualifications Wales said its proposals give schools and colleges greater flexibility in when to deliver assessments and provide more certainty for 2021 without the need for additional contingency arrangements.
The regulator said not running GCSE and AS exams “ensures all learners are treated fairly” and “gives certainty about what will happen next year”. Exam board the WJEC has also "indicated" the changes are deliverable within the timescale.
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In the letter to Ms Williams, signed by Qualifications Wales Chair David Jones and Chief Executive Philip Blaker, the regulator warns: “In these extraordinary times learners, teachers and centres are facing significant challenges, which are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
“It’s important, however, to acknowledge from the start that there are limits to how changes to qualifications can help to address these challenges.
“A qualification gives a measure of the knowledge, skills and understanding that a learner has at the end of a programme of study; it cannot in itself address inequalities in teaching and learning."
It also said that parity with previous years and across the UK remains and was the issue which caused so many problems and the u-turn on grading this year.
The letter adds: "If our proposals are accepted, there are other significant issues that we will need to consider and would welcome discussion on.
"These include whether outcomes should be consistent with those seen in 2019 or 2020, or somewhere in between.
"This is something that should be considered on a UK basis so that there is comparability and fairness for all learners taking the GCSEs and A levels across jurisdictions."
On vocational qualifications, Qualifications Wales said it is working with counterparts in England and Northern Ireland for how the three nations will award those next year.
At the same time the minister is being advised by an independent review not to have exams in Wales at all next summer.
The interim findings of an independent review into last summer's exams, commissioned by the Education Minister, are also being published today and recommend that no exams are held.
Louise Casella, director of The Open University in Wales, was appointed to chair the review which has been asked to make recommendations by the end of October and a final report by December.
The interim report makes five recommendations:
* In 2021, qualifications should be awarded on the basis of robust and moderated assessment undertaken by the learner’s educational setting and not through an exam series.
* Decisions on awarding grades in Wales in 2021 should prioritise the needs of, and fairness to, the learners who are being assessed by acknowledging the challenging circumstances in which their learning has taken place through 2020 and 2021
* Welsh Government establishes an independently chaired Delivery Board to oversee and steer the revised approach to qualification in 2021
* Robust centre assessment methods are developed so that learners are awarded fair grades whilst ensuring the integrity of qualifications
* Assessment methods should be developed in consultation with key stakeholders and the key decisions should be communicated clearly to all involved
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The education minister, who has announced she will not be standing at the next election, said she will consider both pieces of advice before announcing her decision on next summer's exams on November 10.
That was delayed from the original timetable of later this month. Last week the minister said she wanted to wait until all affected pupils were back in school after an extended “fire-break” half term for those in year nine and above.
Whatever she decides will also have an effect on exams in 2022, and possibly beyond, some education experts have warned.
It has already been confirmed that November's GCSE re-sits for maths, Welsh and English language will go ahead.
