Our Chicago family hosts from Arlington Heights were gracious and engaging, as they proudly showed us the Windy City in 2011.
You find the real America in the suburbs.
Their family histories often contain stories of a flight from oppression and hardship, followed by a struggle to make a new beginning in a raw land. In much of America, it has produced a conservative people who have held onto traditional values, particularly in the west and the south - the old 'Confederacy' - Trump territory.
Since visiting Chicago, we have stayed in touch with the family, who believe Trump may win, despite his shambolic handling of COVID-19.
John Martin's response below provides a powerful insight into why more than 40 per cent of Americans have doggedly stuck with Trump throughout his erratic presidency.
He might yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
"Please understand, what you might be missing is the mood of our electorate. There is a certain amount of 'Trump Fatigue' out there, but there is also what I would call a rebellion against the political establishment. For all his faults, real or perceived, Trump has exposed much of the DC swamp for what it truly is; a self-serving corrupt bunch of people, who are misusing power for their benefit while accomplishing almost nothing for the majority of Americans. Our two-party system has a lock on power, so even if you vote for one side of the coin, you still get the same old coin.
This is why we support Trump over here. He is an anti-establishment outsider and actually wants to accomplish something for the country. Biden, by contrast, is viewed as yesterday's news with little to offer. Who benefits from a Biden presidency, the insiders or the people? The political system is dragging our whole country down. Trump is attempting to do something about it. Many here feel they finally have a champion. Despite COVID-19 and everything else, he has a good chance of being re-elected, because the average American voter now feels enfranchised and truly represented. The political culture must change in the United States, and he is our best hope."
This is why we support Trump over here. He is an anti-establishment outsider . . .
But with Trump consistently behind in the polls, will he be given a chance to complete his mission of 'draining the swamp?' Last month, I noted (Opinion, NH 10/10/20) that in the US Electoral College (EC) system where 270 EC votes are needed to win the presidency, Trump may still achieve this and win four more years in the White House.
He still has a very narrow path to victory. But how?
The vast majority of states have a predictable outcome in this winner-take-all system. For example, the Democrats always win California (55), and the Republicans always win Texas (38). But on election night, watch what happens in the few remaining 'swing' states, which between them hold enough EC votes to determine the outcome.
It will come down to who wins in Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16) and North Carolina (15). Trump won all these marginal states in 2016. If Biden wins two back, say Florida and Ohio, he will probably claim the 270 EC votes needed for victory. If he wins more, the Trump era will end. On current trends, this is likely.
However, one other feature of the US voting system could upset these calculations - non-compulsory voting. During American election campaigns, considerable effort is put into getting out the vote. In 2016, only 56 per cent of eligible voters did so, but this year a record voter turnout is predicted. In 2020, Trump's core support is still very solid and above 40 per cent.
Team Trump are more committed to their candidate and have done intensive door-knocking in the swing states to sign up and sway potential supporters. The Biden campaign is focused on remote contact with voters, via the internet. This could be a fatal flaw in the Democrat campaign strategy. Also, support for the politically moderate Biden is softer, and disillusioned Democrats, who initially backed the left-wing Bernie Sanders in the primaries, may not vote.
For Australians who plan to back a horse in the Melbourne Cup, where any horse could win, perhaps the US 'two-horse' presidential election is a better bet.
In 2016, our former US Ambassador Andrew Peacock, a keen punter, put an early bet on Trump at odds of 16 to 1. At the time of writing, the best you will get for a bet on Donald Trump is 2.75 to 1. Longer odds than Joe Biden at 1.50 to 1. Obviously, the bookies think the Democrats will win.
But have they factored in, the twists and turns of the US electoral system?
A better Republican voter turnout in a few swing states could yet again propel Trump to victory in the Electoral College, and another four years in the White House.
God help the USA and the rest of us.
Newcastle East's Dr John Tierney AM is a former Hunter-based federal senator for NSW
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