There's good reason to be downright giddy about the possibilities entering North Carolina's football season. The Tar Heels' first Orange Bowl appearance last season only left them wanting to mingle more in the spaces normally reserved for the college football elite. And there is a real chance they could make it happen, thanks in part to some of their experiences last season.
UNC wasn't ready to handle seeing itself ranked fifth nationally, which explained how it lost to an unremarkable Florida State team in the fifth game of the season. The Tar Heels believe they are better equipped to handle expectations this season.
UNC held a lead or trailed by one score in the fourth quarter of matchups against No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 5 Texas A&M. The Tar Heels feel better prepared to finish games this season.
UNC entered the season having lost 10 straight against teams ranked in the top 10. The Tar Heels pummeled No. 9 Miami, 62-26, on the road to secure a spot in the Orange Bowl.
Carolina returned all but one starter from its Orange Bowl loss to the Aggies. The Heels have the depth, the experience, and most importantly the talent, to take the next step and contend with Clemson for the ACC crown and potential College Football Playoff berth that could come with it.
Now they must, as coach Mack Brown has reiterated, stop accepting the pats on the back and perform.
Carrying the load
— QB Sam Howell, junior. Sitting at the top of the myriad reasons why Carolina is so confident heading into coach Mack Brown's third season of his second tenure, is the return of its third-year starter at quarterback. Howell, who is on pace to obliterate school records for career passing yards and passing touchdowns, could become UNC's first Heisman Trophy winner. At the least, he'll be a serious contender to be its first finalist since running back Charlie "Choo Choo" Justice was the runner-up in 1949.
— LB Jeremiah Gemmel, senior. Gemmel has started every game the past two seasons at linebacker. He's the leading tackler returning on the team with 78 after finishing second to Chazz Surratt. Beyond what he brings to the defense physically, he's one of the team's most respected voices in the locker room. Gemmel is a veteran presence that his teammates listen to, as evidenced by being voted a team captain last season.
— LB Tomon Fox, graduate. Fox made a last-minute decision to postpone turning pro in order to play one more season with the Heels. His ability to rush the quarterback will be a key for the defense this season. Fox is currently tied with legendary linebacker Lawrence Taylor with 21 career sacks, which is good for fifth in school history. His 33 starts are the most of any current UNC defender.
— CB Tony Grimes, sophomore. It may be too early to declare Grimes as a player "carrying the load," but if so, not by much. Grimes could potentially be as big a star at cornerback as his position coach Dre Bly once was at UNC. After reclassifying to enroll at school a year early, Grimes solidified his spot in the starting lineup after a solid performance in reserve against Wake Forest. He started the last four games and recorded his first interception against Miami in the regular-season finale.
— RB Ty Chandler, graduate. Chandler, a graduate transfer who played three seasons at Tennessee, brings lots of experience and should help fill the void left at running back. He's proven to be effective both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. Chandler can also give UNC a boost as a kickoff returner. He left the Volunteers after placing fifth in school history in all-time yards with 3,245. Brown was especially complimentary of how Chandler immediately bought into the culture.
Areas of concern
— Replacing the skill positions. The biggest unknown for Carolina heading into this season is at running back, where Michael Carter and Javonte Williams rushed for 1,000 yards each last year on their way to the NFL. Carolina certainly doesn't have to duplicate its success running the ball from last season, but it has to be effective enough to keep defenses honest. Some of Howell's best performances passing the ball came after UNC established the run and killed opponents with play action passes.
Replacing the production of receivers Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown, who combined to have three 1,000-yard seasons in the past two years will also be difficult. The difference in Carolina's crop of receivers have had more opportunities to show what they can do.
A healthy Khafre Brown can be the big-play receiver his brother Dyami was last season. Sophomore Josh Downs came up big in the Orange Bowl catching two touchdowns. Senior receiver Beau Corrales and tight end Garret Walston each decided to run their senior seasons back again.
— The pass rush. Carolina placed third in the ACC with 36 sacks last season, which, on the surface would seem to signify a good year. But Mack Brown has stated over and over his desire to be able to generate a pass rush without having to scheme for it with blitzes. He wants his front four to be able to do it.
As confident as the Heels are with their secondary, the players in coverage will look a lot better if they're getting pressure upfront and not being left vulnerable in isolated coverage.
The emergence of sophomores Kaimon Rucker, Myles Murphy and Kevin Hester Jr., may be critical to establishing the kind of pass rush Brown desires.
— Creating turnovers. Carolina ranked last in the ACC, recording just 11 takeaways last season including just three fumble recoveries, which tied N.C. State for last in the league. Brown has made turnovers a point of emphasis throughout spring drills.
The Heels' eight interceptions were down from 14 picks during the 2019 season. The secondary didn't have any continuity until late last season. It started when Myles Wolfolk, a fifth-year senior safety, was declared ineligible after one game and starting cornerback Storm Duck suffered an injury in the second game that kept him out the rest of the season.
UNC to start a different group in the secondary nine times last season. That shouldn't be a problem this season — as long as the secondary can stay healthy. Duck is back and with sophomore Tony Grimes and junior Kyler McMichael, UNC believes it has three players who can cover receivers one-on-one.
Brown's hope is that more depth and experience will lend to generating takeaways this season because if the Heels are to become the elite team he envisions, they can't rely solely on having an elite offense.
Can't-miss game
— Miami, Oct. 16
The Heels' trip to South Bend, Ind., to face Notre Dame on Oct. 31 will be big stage on national television and how they play then will shape more casual observers' perspective of UNC. But the a more important date is just before that game against Miami because of its potential impact in the Coastal Division race.
The Heels destroyed the Canes in the regular-season finale in Miami when Williams and Carter ran roughshod through their defense for 544 rushing yards. The win earned UNC the program's first-ever Orange Bowl bid.
The stakes should again be high when the two teams face each other this season in Kenan Stadium. The winner will likely take frontrunner status to claiming the Coastal and playing in the ACC championship game. Carolina was picked by 147 voters in the ACC's preseason media poll to win the division. Miami was picked to finish second.
The game will feature arguably the league's two best quarterbacks in Howell and Miami's D'Eriq King, and has the potential for plenty of offensive fireworks.
Since Mack Brown returned to Chapel Hill, he's beaten the Canes in both meetings including a dramatic, fourth-quarter rally in 2019 that ended with Howell throwing the game-winning touchdown pass to Dazz Newsome with 61 seconds left in the game.
A successful season is ...
This will be a season where winning games isn't satisfactory enough. There's no room for moral victories for a program looking to take the next step into competing and being respected nationally. The Heels have to win and win big.
Winning the Coastal Division in and of itself won't be good enough if it turns out UNC has inconsistent outings like it did in losses at Florida State and Virginia last season. But winning the division for just the second time in school history is probably the baseline for success at UNC.
Anything less than at least a 10-win season is going to seem like a disappointment. And even then, it'll depend on which opponents the Heels beat. A nine-win regular season coupled with a bowl win probably won't cut it, because it'll likely mean Carolina missed out on both winning the division and appearing in a major bowl.
For production to match expectations, UNC has to go head-to-head with Clemson in the ACC title game and find itself again playing in a New Year's Six bowl again.
