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Wales Online
Wales Online
Sport
Matthew Southcombe

A heartbreaking 60 seconds dissected as fatal decisions and an exposed kick-chase result in yet another last-minute disaster

Losing big Test matches in the dying moments is becoming a painfully familiar reality for Welsh rugby.

Without thinking too hard, examples of missed opportunities flood back. The almost comical tour of Australia in 2012, the Kurtley Beale try in the autumn of that same year, Elliot Daly in Cardiff in 2017, South Africa at the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

Then, more recently - and perhaps pertinently - the Grand Slam showdown in Paris in 2021, where Les Bleus denied Wayne Pivac's side the clean sweep in heartbreaking fashion. Again, at Loftus Versfeld, Wales were unable to close the game out.

READ MORE: Players square up and ref escorted from pitch in unseen Wales incidents

Admittedly, in this scenario a draw is all that is on the line but it would have been an infinitely creditable one, having been at 'Fortress Loftus', the altitude, the world champions... the four yellow cards. Alas, the Boks found a way.

What will sting the most is that Wales have possession on their own 10 metre line with just 20 seconds to go and the score locked at 29-29. How did things go so wrong from there?

It's worth remembering Wales are down to 13 men with Rhys Carre and Louis Rees-Zammit in the sin bin. That detail will become important.

The big decision

When Faletau secured the lineout, Wales had two options - kick or keep possession and run down the clock. Two phases of possession, possibly even one, would have been enough to see the seconds tick by, giving Williams a chance to boot the ball off and take the draw.

The other choice is to kick it away and back your defence to pin South Africa down and possibly even force an error or win a kickable penalty for the win.

Williams has copped flak in the last 24 hours for kicking the ball away because it ultimately led to the penalty that cost Wales the game. But there are a few factors to consider before the decision is slated.

Referee Nika Amashukeli had penalised both teams consistently throughout the game for going off their feet on their own ball and sealing off. Wales had just two phases, maximum, to survive but how often do we see teams penalised in the dying moments for sealing off? It will have played on players' minds.

There is also some scar tissue. In that Grand Slam match last year, Wales had 90 seconds to see out with a three-point lead. They tried to keep the ball but were penalised with less than a minute to go. The offence? Sealing off. From there, France scored against 13 men.

The scrum-half that night? Tomos Williams. The similarities are impossible to ignore.

Yellow card costs Wales

This time, the decision is made to kick. The first problem Wales give themselves, which is easy to identify in hindsight, is the way they chase the kick.

Rees-Zammit is off the field after being yellow carded, so before Williams kicks, fly-half Dan Biggar runs to the blindside to chase in the channel that would usually be filled by the winger. This is a decision that proves fatal.

Biggar is one of Wales' best in the air, so if the kick is a contestable one, then having Biggar in that channel is not the worst thing in the world because the chances are he will regather it or at least cause a Springbok to drop it.

But the kick is long and pins South Africa deep into their 22. Again, this is not catastrophic in itself but problems are beginning to appear in Wales' defence. Because Biggar has chased up the narrow side, Wales are short of numbers on the open side and South Africa expose it.

When Willie Le Roux spins and starts the counter-attack, Wales, though a man light, are in decent shape to smother any threat because they have chased hard. But a hop, skip and miss pass from Le Roux beats the three red jerseys chasing on the openside.

Cheslin Kolbe gets the ball on the outside of George North and now Wales are in full scramble mode. Pausing things here. If Rees-Zammit is on the field and Biggar chasing in his normal channel, roughly up the middle of the field, Wales probably don't get beaten so easily because there are four chasers on the openside instead of three.

The 60-metre gain

North is beaten by a pass but looks to have the angle on Kolbe and is making a good fist of turning and chasing the Springbok speedster down. But Liam Williams, the last man who probably feels he needs to make a big shot, gets twitchy and jams in on Kolbe.

The pass gets away to Lukhanyo Am on the touchline. Now North, in the 80th minute of his first Test match in 18 months, at altitude, has to corner flag around 50 metres, having just run 40 in the other direction.

By the time the Welshman gets Am to the ground, Wales are back on the edge of their own 22. What is worth emphasising here is, with 20 seconds remaining, Wales kicked the ball away on their own 10 metre line. The next ruck was South Africa attacking on the edge of the Welsh 22.

A series of painful events

We all know what happens next. Almost exactly one minute after Williams kicks the ball away, Biggar is penalised for slapping the pass down and Damian Willemse steps up to break Welsh hearts.

The decision to kick the ball away is questionable but not catastrophic in isolation. The yellow card forces Wales to re-organise their chase, leaving them exposed. Should they have protected the openside? Does Biggar go to the blind side expecting a kick to compete?

If the decision was always to kick long, would Wales have been better served letting the forwards fill in the blindside from the maul and have the backs protect the open space?

Shoulda, woulda, coulda at this stage but the video will be painful to watch on Monday morning and it is the latest in a growing list of examples of Wales failing to close things out in a tight game.

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