The American League West and the final AL wild card place
Practically speaking, not mathematically speaking, there are four teams, the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins, trying to squeeze into the two remaining playoff spots: this is the week we finally figure out who wins the AL West and who becomes the second AL wild card team ... unless of course, it stretches into next week. Stick with me.
First off, depending on how things break early in the week, the upcoming four-game series between the streaking, better late than never Angels and the hosting Rangers could become a crucial showcase. Los Angeles, currently just two games behind Texas and a half-game behind the wild card leading Astros, began their week at home with a walk-off win against the Oakland A’s while the suddenly slumping Rangers lost their first of three with downtrodden Detroit.
The Astros, currently just 1.5 games behind Texas are on the road where they are just 30 and 46 - first in Seattle where they won the series opener 3-2 on Monday, and then at Arizona, where they’ll have the pleasure of potentially playing with their season on the line without a designated hitter (sweet!).
The Twins, now 1.5 games behind Houston, started their series in Cleveland by beating the Indians 4-2, further dampening the slender but not mathematically impossible playoff hopes of the Tribe. The Twinkies finish off with four games at home against the Kansas City Royals.
Still following? OK, let’s start with what what happens if the Rangers, Astros Astros, Angels and Twins finish all with the same record. If that scenario played out the galaxy would likely burp us all up into deep space, but after a short regrouping period, there’d be quite a bit of baseball to play.
Because the Angles have the best combined record against all the teams involved, they will have a choice of opponent for the additional games played on Monday 5 October: play at home against Houston or host Minnesota (they could also play on the road against Texas but that would be silly).
Choosing to face the Astros means probably having to face Dallas Keuchel, who is a 19-game winner (I know we’re not supposed to mention wins anymore but still) with a 2.47 ERA, and that’s not really recommended. So, let’s assume LA plays the Twins and their less imposing starting pitching options which doesn’t include Ervin Santana, (he’s undefeated in September but not eligible thanks to his PED suspension), putting Houston away to Texas for the biggest game in the history of that rivalry.
If the Twins beat the Angels they become the final AL wild card team and the winner of Texas/Houston are AL West champs. But if LA beat Minnesota, they’ll play on the road against the winner of Texas/Houston on Tuesday. Whoever wins that game would become AL West champs, while the loser would be the final wild card team. That would almost certainly means a date with the Yankees in New York, likely on Wednesday the 7th, in what would be one crazy bit of pre-playoff travel mayhem.
Other only slightly less intense two-team tie-breaking scenarios include:
The Astros hosting the Angels in Houston because they beat LA in the season series.
The Twins and Astros playing a tiebreaker game in Minnesota because Houston had a worse intra-division record.
The Angels hosting the Twins in LA because they beat Minnesota in the season series.
Now, if you thought the four-way tie was complex, there are no fewer than three, three-way tie scenarios, and if you want details of all of them, at your peril, I suggest you click here.
Dissecting the division of death
That is, of course, the National League Central, whose teams have combined to win a ridiculous 283 games this season. One thing that’s virtually certain is that the potentially curse-busting Chicago Cubs won’t be playing inside the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, at least initially. They’ll be in St Louis or Pittsburgh for the winner-take-all one-game super death match wild card contest. If they win that they’ll face, you guessed it, Pittsburgh or St Louis, and more on that in just a bit.
Whichever team they play, the Cubbies will be in tremendous shape because Jake Arrieta and his insane 1.82 ERA will be waiting. Pittsburgh got their latest taste of Arrieta, who has had himself one heck of a second half, on Sunday evening in Chicago when the hurler had Buccos batters on their knees, begging for anything they could handle with the ace taking a perfect game into the seventh inning (he also hit a home run, just for fun). The thing to love about the Cubs is that they’ll be resting some of their every day players this week, all while keeping their horse in a perfect baseball rhythm: Arrieta will take his turn on Friday in Milwaukee, and then be on exact rest heading into the big game on Wednesday, and that doesn’t bode well for his opponent.
Meanwhile, on Monday, the Pirates and Cardinals dueled in Pittsburgh with the Buccos more-or-less needing to sweep first place St Louis to have any decent shot at overtaking the team they’ve been chasing all season long. The Cardinals, still playing without all-star catcher Yadier Molina, scraped out a 3-0 win during which they may have lost another spark-plug: Stephen Piscotty, who suffered a head contusion during a scary seventh inning outfield incident. If Pittsburgh can win Tuesday with Charlie Morton on the hill, ace Gerrit Cole is lined up for the series finale on Wednesday. The Cards, who now lead by the Bucs by four games and could be on the verge of getting Adam Wainwright back from his Achilles injury, will finish the season up in Atlanta against the Braves while the Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds for three games.
If the teams are tied at the end of the season, they’ll play a game on Monday 5 October in the park of whoever wins the season series between the teams (right now the Redbirds lead 9-8), to determine the division winner and who will lose to have to face the crazy intense monster that lives deep inside Jake Arrieta. Gulp.
Settling home field advantage and playoff seeding
Generally speaking, teams go all out to reach the post-season but let the chips fall when it comes to home filed advantage and seeding. Are the Mets going to go pedal to the metal to make sure they have an extra home game in Queens? That’s unlikely: instead, the New York’s final games against the folly-filled Washington Nationals, once circled as potentially season-deciding encounters, will be more about resting up those young, innings challenged pitchers than anything else. The same can be said for their NL Division Series opponents, Don Mattingly’s, Yasiel Puig-less Los Angeles Dodgers, that is, when and if they wrap up their third consecutive NL West title with a single win during their upcoming four-game series in San Francisco against the Giants. Their No-Cal rivals staved off elimination for one more day at least, outlasting LA 3-2 in 12 innings.
Over in the AL, the one-seed is still to be decided. The Toronto Blue Jays, who have 91 wins, are closer to wrapping up the division after beating Baltimore Monday, now holding a five game advantage on the Yankees who lost to the Boston Red Sox 5-1, are likely resigned to hosting a wild card game barring a any baseball miracles. Masahiro Tanaka, recovering from a hamstring suffered during the recent Subway Series against the Mets, will likely take the ball against their mystery wild card opponent next week. AL Central division champion Kansas City also have 90 wins. Since the Royals and the Jays, who should have Troy Tulowitzki back in time for the playoffs, have assured home field advantage in the Divisional Series, none of these teams are going to risk anything to assure an extra home game during a Championship Series they’re not even sure they’ll reach.
