If you’ve heard it once, you’ve heard it 1,000 times: The 2021 MLB draft does not have a consensus top player, so it’s unclear at this point where the Pirates will go with their first overall selection.
What you can do is get familiar with the players the Pirates could take.
Here’s a list and some background on eight of the top players in the MLB draft who the Pirates may be considering.
———
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (Calif.)
Power rankings — MLB Pipeline: 1 / Fangraphs: 1 / ESPN: 2 / Baseball America: 2
Those paying close attention will know that Mayer has been one of the most heavily rumored possibilities for the Pirates with the first overall pick. He is widely considered to be one of the best talents in the draft. Mayer is a lean, 6-foot-3, left-handed hitting shortstop who hit .410 with 13 home runs during his senior season this spring.
Mayer has great tools, as would be expected from a player at the top of the draft. He is thought to have very good plate discipline offensively, able to cover all parts of the zone with his big frame. There also seems to be a thought that he could develop great power once his body fills out, with multiple outlets saying an optimistic comparison could be Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Corey Seager.
If there is a real downside, it’s that as he fills out his frame, it may mean that he won’t project to play shortstop down the road. As of right now, that doesn’t appear to be too meaningful of a concern, but it will surely play into the Pirates’ decision-making.
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit High School (Texas)
Power rankings — MLB Pipeline: 3 / Fangraphs: 5 / ESPN: 1 / Baseball America: 1
Lawlar appears to be slightly more of a sure thing than Mayer, in part because Lawlar is older. He will turn 19 on July 17, whereas Mayer will be 18 until December. That can be a good thing. For instance, it seems that the consensus is that Lawlar is the most likely high school shortstop to remain a shortstop in this draft class. He is faster than Mayer and has an above-average glove and arm.
His hitting is solid, too. He hit above .400 in all three seasons of varsity baseball, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel notes that he performed well playing in a summer wooden bat league. The concerns here are that Lawlar struggled with strikeouts out of nowhere for a bit in the spring, though that changed drastically over the rest of the season.
There is also a thought that, because of Lawlar’s advanced age and body build, he may not develop the same sort of power that Mayer could. If the power does develop, though, the other tools could carry him to becoming a truly elite shortstop.
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Power Rankings — MLB Pipeline: 2 / Fangraphs: 3 / ESPN: 3 / Baseball America: 3
Anyone who watched college baseball this year, with the knowledge that Leiter was considered a top pick in the draft, probably fell in love with him. The son of longtime MLB lefty Al Leiter, Jack had a 2.13 ERA in 110 innings, with 179 strikeouts and 45 walks in that time.
The 6-foot-1, 21-year-old righty burst onto the scene in 2020 because of his electric fastball, which sits around 94-97 mph and gets a ton of swings and misses. He also employs a very good, 12-6 curveball as his main secondary pitch with a slider and change-up alongside.
The thought with Leiter seems to be that he could use some work on his control and could stand to add some definition between his curve and slider, while also making his change-up more adept. The common phrase with Leiter is that he isn’t a sure thing like Washington Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, but he has ace potential down the road.
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Power Rankings — MLB Pipeline: 5 / Fangraphs: 2 / ESPN: 4 / Baseball America: 4
Davis hit .370 with 15 home runs and a 1.145 OPS this season. That is very good. He has an unorthodox swing, but the results speak for themselves. He makes contact well, has plenty of pull power and has walked more than he has struck out in his Louisville career.
The concerns with Davis come defensively. He is not the most nimble player you will ever see, and Fangraphs points out that his actual, physical crouch behind home plate is not very low to the ground. On the plus side, everyone agrees that he has an absolute cannon for an arm.
One of the more interesting things to note is that Davis has some questions about his receiving ability behind the plate. However, that point may be moot, as computerized strike zones appear to be fast-approaching in the majors. Fangraphs calls Davis the “safest” pick in the draft. If his offensive prowess in college translates to the pros, that would make him a premium player at catcher.
Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (N.C.)
Power Rankings — MLB Pipeline: 4 / Fangraphs: 4 / ESPN: 7 / Baseball America: 6
Fangraphs’ scouting report of Watson reads like a fan page. “Electricity personified,” they say. Watson, while standing at 5-foot-9 right now, is a great athlete. He is extremely fast, and while his sheer size and arm strength may require a move to second base down the road, there seems to be a consensus that he will remain a middle infielder.
The second thing to know is that Watson swings for the fences, or in Fangraphs’ terms, he “has a badass uppercut swing.” That has resulted in more power than one would expect from a smaller player like Watson. It should also be noted that there doesn’t seem to be a concern with his plate discipline. He has still shown a good feel for the zone even with his big swing.
The knock here is that Watson’s swing could hurt him against better pitching in the minor leagues. But the upside seems to be, well, electric.
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Power Rankings — MLB Pipeline: 6 / Fangraphs: 8 / ESPN: 6 / Baseball America: 5
You may remember Rocker from his College World Series no-hitter against Duke in 2019 or the #TankForRocker push in 2020. Well, here he is: In all of his 6-foot-5, 245-pound glory.
Rocker at his best is elite. His fastball touches 99 mph and his secondary breaking ball, a slurve, got a ton of swings and misses in college. He’s flashed a cutter and a change-up, as well.
There are some concerns about his stuff, though, in that it has not been as consistent as one would like. The fastball velocity has dipped into the high-80s, low-90s at times. His stuff may not play as well at the next level, either. The other concern is that he is not as projectable as, say, Leiter, since he has already filled out his frame at this point. The ceiling remains very high, though.
Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Ga.)
Power Rankings — MLB Pipeline: 8 / Fangraphs: 6 / ESPN: 5 / Baseball America: 7
Here is the fourth of the elite high school shortstops in the draft. He is probably the most powerful-looking, standing at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. Given that, it makes sense that his raw power appears to be the strongest tool, along with elite arm strength.
The problem is that House struggled in the summer of 2020, striking out more than anticipated — though when he does make contact, it is well-struck. The prevailing thought seems to be that House is the likeliest of the shortstops to move positions, either over to third base or into the outfield with that rocket of an arm.
McDaniel noted that House had one really good game, going 3 for 3 against RHP Dylan Lesko, the top prep arm in 2022, in front of a ton of MLB scouts. As odd as that sounds, those things make an impression. At the same time, there seems to be some level of risk here, given the contact concerns.
Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Power Rankings — MLB Pipeline: 11 / Fangraphs: 9 / ESPN: 9 / Baseball America: 9
Frelick hit .359 with 17 doubles, six homers and a 1.002 OPS this season with the Eagles. He is also a very good athlete, named the Gatorade Player of the Year as a Massachusetts high school quarterback in 2018.
However, Frelick is a bit of an unknown, as a knee injury kept him out of the end of the 2019 season. He does not have much power right now, but his hands appear to be very good. And with a small strike zone, standing at 5-foot-9, he covers the plate well and has the ability to beat out infield hits fairly regularly.
Baseball America calls Frelick “one of the safer college hitters in the draft, with a chance to be a dynamic spark plug who hits at the top of a lineup and plays good defense in the middle of the field.”
