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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Guy Clapperton

A fair wind for the moment

There's been a lot of comment on the economy just lately - hardly a surprise as the focus turns to Gordon Brown, Prime Minister in waiting. The Guardian is saying he's heading for trouble because of rules he made up in the first place.

Well, yes. But some of these rules - like the one about the Bank of England deciding on the base rate so the chancellor can never use it to political advantage - have been wholly beneficial. The coming months and years will undoubtedly be tricky, but I'm 40 years old and can't recall a period of consistent growth and prosperity like this during my lifetime. The real difficulty is that the credit-based nature of our economy seems at last to be catching up with us, and people are focusing on paying credit cards and loans back. This is a good thing but it does mean a slowing High Street, which will set Brown's economic forecasts back.

I'm predicting another rise in National Insurance at the next or next-but-one budget. My own, no doubt biased and naive view, is that we'll still be better off than we were in the days of mass unemployment and soaring inflation, which people seem to forget dovetailed completely in the 1980s.

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