"Do we really need all these graduates?" is a frequent cry whenever Tony Blair's target of getting 50% of young people into university is discussed. Will the graduate jobs be there to be filled? As the number of graduates rises, so the value of having a degree will fall, argue the sceptics.
A report today from Scotland ought to convince the doubters - though, human nature being what it is, probably won't. It shows graduates being absorbed successfully into work despite the massive jump in their numbers - 43% over the past decade.
The study by Futureskills Scotland (part of Scottish Enterprise) compares the position of graduates in Scotland with the early 1990s. Remember that throughout this period about 50% of school leavers were going into higher education - and if you take all people under 30 which is the definition for the purposes of the UK government target then the percentage is higher still.
So if there was going to be a graduate glut it should have happened in Scotland - but it hasn't. The graduate employment rate has remained at 89% - higher than for those without degrees - and 84% are in graduate-type jobs.
"Put simply, Scotland's economy needed more graduates and that is what we got," says Stephen Boyle, director of Futureskills Scotland. "When we compare the early 1990s and the early 2000s, it is clear that the substantial rise in the supply of graduates has been absorbed by an increase in the demand for graduates."
Graduates still earn a wage premium - in 2001/03, average annual graduate earnings were around £28,000 (in 2003 prices) - around 50% more that the earnings of people with Highers or sub-degree qualifications. The wage premium was similar to 1993/95, says the report.
That is not to say Scottish graduates necessarily walk into jobs - a higher proportion report unwilling temporary work than south of the Border. But it still pays to get a degree.
