If numbers were all that mattered, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) should not have much to worry about in Varkala this Assembly election. But the scenic constituency famed for its tourist draws and the Sivagiri Madhom has always been a complex battlefield during elections.
A quick glance through the statistics reveals that the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] have won the most number of elections in Varkala since 1957.
Sitting MLA
In the 2016 Assembly elections, V. Joy of the CPI(M) won Varkala for the LDF by defeating Varkala Kahar of the Congress by a margin of 2,386 votes. The LDF and the CPI(M) are hoping for a repeat performance in 2021.
But this is also a constituency which, between 2001 and 2011, gifted three victories in a row to Varkala Kahar of the Congress, a feat which gives confidence to the United Democratic Front (UDF) as it prepares for the April 6 polls. That said, CPI’s T.A. Majeed and Varkala Radhakrishnan of the CPI(M) hold the record for having represented Varkala the most number of times. Mr. Majeed won in 1957, 1967, 1970 and 1977, and Mr. Radhakrishnan in 1980, 1982, 1987 and 1991.
BJP factor
The emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a keen player over the past five years adds a new element in the pollscape.
It could transform the battle into a three-cornered affair, as was amply evident in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the local body elections in December 2020.
In the 2016 Assembly polls, Aji S.R.M of BJP-ally Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) had cornered 19,872 votes — 15.5% of the total votes polled.
Three years later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP leader Sobha Surendran who contested from the Attingal Lok Sabha constituency polled 34,343 votes in the Varkala Assembly segment. In the local body elections to the Varkala municipality in December last year, the BJP improved its tally from just three seats in 2015 to 11, finishing behind the LDF and pushing the UDF to third spot.
Regional, State issues
In 2021, all the three fronts are expected to take up regional development alongside State-level issues to garner votes in Varkala. The revival of the tourism sector, which took a hit during the COVID-19 pandemic, also will come under the spotlight.
As per the final voters’ list published on January 20, Varkala has a little over 1.83 lakh electors, with 85,078 men and 98,778 women. (The numbers are liable to change as the supplementary list is under preparation).
Tough battles
A two-member constituency (general and reserved) in the 1957 and 1960 elections, Varkala has witnessed some tough battles ever since T.A. Majeed and K. Sivadasan of the CPI won the 1957 elections to the State Assembly.
It was in Varkala that Varkala Radhakrishnan defeated G. Karthikeyan of the Congress by 7,261 votes in 1980.
Mr. Radhakrishnan continued his winning streak from the constituency in 1982, 1987 and 1991. Varkala Kahar won the 2001 elections by defeating CPI(M)’s P.K. Gurudasan by 1,988 votes. Mr. Kahar won in 2006 and 2011 as well. V. Joy reclaimed the constituency for the LDF in 2016.
