I enjoyed reading George Magnus’s article (Why Peak China may finally have arrived, 11 August). However, focusing on peak economic growth misses the bigger picture and underestimates China in ways that could weaken western policy responses. China’s central goal is national power, and we are far from its peak national power.
The Chinese economic miracle has taken place under the US-led global system. China built factories along its coast, filled container ships, and sent its goods to developed markets, effectively plugging into an existing network of shipping routes, ports and railways. However, just as easily as China joined this system, so too can it be forcefully unplugged.
This is a core national security concern and, for more than a decade, China has been building an alternative to this US-led order. The belt and road initiative has created new trading networks across the global south; the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (Cips) allows China and its partners to move money beyond the gaze of the US government; the “Made in China 2025” policy has established China as a global leader in science and technology; and the modernisation of its military will allow China to project power beyond its borders.
On his first and only visit to the US since the pandemic, Xi Jinping declared to Joe Biden that “Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed”. Policymakers should understand this as a statement of intent. Even with slower growth, the party commands enough of the nation’s wealth and resources to pursue its ultimate aim: a parallel, China-led global system.
Andrew J Sinclair
Visiting assistant professor of finance, California Institute of Technology
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