The fate of Thailand’s prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is hanging in the balance after only ten months in office. A recent flare-up in a historical border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand could become her ultimate undoing.
Paetongtarn has been criticised for her handling of the conflict after tensions escalated in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a fire exchange with Thai troops.
One of Paetongtarn’s sore points is the longstanding close relationship between her father Thaksin Shinawatra and the former Cambodian prime minister and current president of the Senate, Hun Sen.
Thaksin spent 15 years in self-imposed exile after he was ousted as Thailand’s prime minister in a 2006 military coup. Hun Sen enabled Thaksin to use Cambodia as a frequent base for meeting political allies during his exile. He even named Thaksin his special advisor.
Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.
Following Thaksin’s return to Thailand in August 2023, after which he spent six months in detention, Hun Sen visited Thaksin within days of his release on parole. This further buttressed the relationship between the two.
Conservative Thais have used this closeness to criticise Paetongtarn and her government for being “too soft” in their dealings with Cambodia. But things turned particularly ugly on June 18 when an audio recording of Paetongtarn’s 17-minute phone call with Hun Sen was leaked via his official Facebook page.
In the recording, Paetongtarn refers to Hun Sen in familial terms as “uncle” and offers to “take care of” anything he might want in exchange for a peaceful resolution to the border conflict.
She also disparages a senior Thai army general, Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang, who oversees the border region. This is a dangerous move in a country where the military has considerable political clout and a history of successful military interventions against the Shinawatras.
The leak has had a chilling effect on the close personal relations between the Shinawatras and Hun Sen. Its domestic effects have also been nothing short of disastrous for Paetongtarn.
It came at a time of deteriorating relations between Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai party and Bhumjaithai, its largest coalition partner. Bhumjaithai used the leaked audio recording to exit the ruling coalition on June 18, leaving Paetongtarn with a slim governing majority amid a major political crisis.
She is now facing a string of popular protests from across the political spectrum and mounting calls by the opposition to resign.
Paetongtarn has issued a public apology and arranged a call with Boonsin to explain her conversation with Hun Sen. On June 20, she also made a hasty trip to the border area to appear alongside Boonsin in a show of unity.
But none of these actions are likely to repair the damage. Paetongtarn now has three options.
Paetongtarn’s three options
Her first option is to dig in and continue as prime minister, a path she seems to have settled on for now. This won’t guarantee her long-term survival. Her coalition, which has been cobbled together on the back of political necessity and controversial dealmaking rather than loyalty and shared policy agendas, is still fragile.
In the wake of Bhumjaithai’s exit, other coalition partners held internal party meetings to discuss whether to follow suit or continue to stick with the embattled prime minister. For now, all remaining coalition partners have pledged their support, probably in exchange for some of the cabinet positions left vacant by Bhumjaithai.
The current cabinet reshuffle, due to be unveiled by June 27, might paper over the coalition cracks. But it won’t resolve all problems. At least three MPs from the Democrat party, Pheu Thai’s third-largest coalition partner, have signalled they would resign should their party stick with Paentongtarn.
Pheu Thai’s new largest coalition partner, the ultra-conservative United Thai Nation (UTN) party, might also cause further trouble.
The party was initially set to push for Paentongtarn’s resignation in exchange for preserving the coalition arrangements. This ultimately did not happen, but Paetongtarn cannot rest on her laurels. UTN is internally fractured, and one faction’s exit could destabilise the entire government.
Even if Paetongtarn manages to keep the coalition together, she could still be brought down by legal means. Several Bhumjaithai-aligned senators have lodged respective petitions with the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate Paetongtarn for ethical misconduct.
This could lead to her impeachment and eventual dismissal, as in the case of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin. Other legal challenges are also mounting.
And then there is always the possibility of another coup. The military brought down the governments of Paetongtarn’s father and later her aunt Yingluck in 2014.
Paetongtarn’s second option is to resign, making way for parliament to select a new prime minister. The selection would have to be made from a list of prime ministerial candidates submitted to the Election Commission before the 2023 election.
Pheu Thai originally fielded three prime ministerial candidates, the maximum number permitted by law. With Srettha and Paetongtarn out of the game, Chaikasem Nitisiri would be Pheu Thai’s only prime ministerial option.
However, Chaikasem is rumoured to suffer from a long-term ill health, and Pheu Thai would still need to muster sufficient support from its coalition partners. This could prove difficult as UTN is one of the only coalition parties left that still has a viable prime ministerial candidate. It could use this situation to try and take over the premiership.
Under the third option, Paetongtarn could dissolve parliament and call a snap election. This is perhaps her least attractive option.
The People’s party, the progressive successor of the Move Forward party that beat Pheu Thai to first place in the 2023 election, is enjoying a considerable surge in popularity. Going to the polls could prove too risky, not only for Pheu Thai but also for the entire conservative establishment.
Read more: Thailand's conservative elites oust prime minister and ban opposition
None of these options are particularly promising, but they carry an important lesson about the volatility of political dealmaking. Whether Paetongtarn and – more crucially – her father will learn this lesson remains to be seen. In the meantime, all eyes will be on Thailand and the country’s military.
Petra Alderman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
