Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) just dropped one of the most eye-opening economic datapoints of the season — and it didn't come from the Fed, BLS or Treasury Dept. It came straight from Home Depot CEO Ted Decker, who said housing turnover is now at "40-year lows… at 2.9% turnover."
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For an economy that looks healthy on paper, this is the kind of structural slowdown that doesn't show up in GDP — but absolutely shows up in home improvement demand.
Why It Matters: If No One Moves, No One Remodels
Decker didn't sugarcoat it. Even with strong indicators like GDP and PCE, the real choke point is the housing market — specifically, the lack of movement.
As he put it, "housing has been soft for some time… higher interest rates and affordability concerns," but the real surprise is that turnover hasn't just slowed — it's collapsed. When homes don't trade hands, renovation cycles stall, projects get delayed, and discretionary upgrades get pushed off.
And consumers aren't the problem. "We still believe we have one of the healthiest consumer segments in the whole economy," Decker said. What's missing is the spark — the catalyst that gets Americans back into the market.
Storms Didn't Hit, Housing Didn't Move And Demand Flattened
The slowdown isn't just macro. Home Depot noted the lack of storm activity — "truly zero… we saw that most acutely in October" — further pressured comps. But the deeper issue remains housing inertia: no storms, no mobility, and no new inventory entering the system.
Beneath the noise, Home Depot says the underlying business comp is holding at around 1%. But without a rebound in turnover or a meaningful drop in mortgage rates, the company doesn't see a near-term catalyst: "We just don't see the catalyst to increase that underlying storm-adjusted demand in the market."
The Silent Economic Headwind Going Into 2025
For investors, this is the real story. Not inflation. Not the consumer. Not promotional intensity.
It's turnover — or rather, the historic lack of it.
A 40-year housing freeze keeps the entire home improvement ecosystem stuck in neutral. And until affordability improves, mobility rises, or rates fall meaningfully, the sector is going to feel like it's pedaling hard without moving very far.
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