More than 4.5million GCSE results will be awarded using the controversial algorithm which downgraded thousands of A-level results, new analysis has shown.
According to the Observer, 4.6million of GCSE grades - which is around 97 per cent - will be worked out using the same method which was devised by exam regulator Ofqual, as opposed to teacher assessments.
Natalie Perera, executive director of the Education Policy Institute think tank, warned that Ofqual could place greater emphasis on the algorithm at GCSE level as the exams have more participants than A-levels and are often harder to predict.
"We will almost certainly see a repeat of the many problems seen with A-levels, only with GCSEs they could be more severe," she told the Guardian.
It comes after nearly 40 per cent of A-level students were downgraded last week after exams could not take place due to coronavirus lockdown.
The Government faced criticism after teacher assessments were not taken on board in the final grades and it promised to cover the cost of appeals.
Ministers are preparing for a fresh backlash later in the week when GCSE results for England are announced on Thursday.
Like the A-level results, they will initially be based on teacher assessments and then “moderated” by the Ofqual algorithm to bring them in line with previous years’ results.
Mr Williamson has said the process was necessary to prevent “grade inflation” which would render the results worthless after actual exams had to be abandoned due to the coronavirus outbreak.
However critics have complained it has led to thousands of individual injustices, disproportionately penalising students from schools serving disadvantaged communities.
Geoff Barton, general Secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said the Qfqual document was “surreal and bureaucratic”.
He urged the Government to follow the example of Scotland – where there was a similar outcry – and abandon the moderated results and go back to teacher assessments.
“That would be a better approach than this appeals system as it would mean students would get revised A-level grades immediately on the basis of the teacher assessments already conducted, which draw on the very evidence that is now proposed as part of the appeals process,” he said.
“We don’t blame Ofqual for the bizarre nature of the appeals criteria. The regulator has been given a hospital pass by a government that is in disarray.
“It is time for ministers to stop the chaos and fall back on teacher-assessed grades rather than prolong this nightmare.”
