In the betting markets at least, Donald Trump is crushing Hillary Clinton.
On Monday and Tuesday the Republican candidate outshone his rival in terms of both the number and the volume of wagers, according to figures Ireland's largest bookmaker Paddy Power Betfair Plc. Just shy of 100,000 euros ($111,000) in bets came in, with 91 percent of that for Trump.
"This election's been a serious betting anomaly" said Feilim Mac An Iomaire, a spokesman for the company, confirming that data in a phone call. Even before Oct. 28, when FBI Director Jack Comey announced the discovery of new emails potentially related to a probe that has troubled the Clinton campaign, money placed on a Trump victory amounted to almost the same as that bet on his rival, despite her lead in opinion polls.
"You don't normally see so much placed on the outside candidate but I think the shock of Brexit is fresh in people's minds," Mac An Iomaire said.
The U.K.'s June referendum bruised professional pollsters by dealing an unexpected blow to the status quo. Yet another lesson of that vote is that betting flows are not a foolproof indicator, with bookies reporting a surge in bets that the U.K. electorate would choose to remain in the European Union on the morning of the vote. The next day, the "Leave" camp emerged triumphant.
Still, bookmakers' data appear to be echoing moves in financial markets, with the Mexican peso, Credit Suisse AG's "ultimate market indicator," weakening more than 3 percent since Comey's letter, as Trump's improving prospects jolt the currency.
The probability of a Trump victory implied by offshore bookmakers' odds are now at 28.5 percent, according to Convergex market strategist Nicholas Colas. That's roughly the same as flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row, and matches estimates by professional polling analysts. For Paddy Power, which reports third-quarter earnings on Friday, the stakes are higher than most. The company announced it would start paying out on a Clinton victory in mid October, having initially offered a Donald Trump presidency at 100/1.
