Fade me. Last week, I continued a bad year in NFL picks by going 2-5. So bet against me. I am almost trying to do the same this week.
Everyone who picks games on Sundays gets this feeling at some point. Everything they pick is wrong. The research they’ve done doesn’t matter. There pick games on gut feelings. Then they start flipping all their picks.
Last week I broke down how underdogs were on an absolute tear in the 2019 NFL season. I then went on to take three favorites. All of them lost outright. In fact, the Browns game actually shifted to Cleveland as the favorite so that’s 0-4 on favorites last week.
The scary thing is that this week there are a ton of interesting underdogs. A lot of teams getting points could win outright. That also means that this could be the week that underdogs finally don’t cover. Creating a coherent strategy is tough when your confidence is shot and you’re losing every weekend. That’s not an excuse to take a week off. The only way to get out of a hole is to keep digging. Just be forewarned. The smart thing to do here is to take the opposite of what follows — if recent history is an indicator.
Home teams in CAPS, and we are moving to Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Arizona Cardinals +135 over NEW YORK GIANTS and Over 49 (-135)
The Cardinals are on a two-game winning streak coming into New York. Their offense has looked better. Kyler Murray is playing like the first overall pick in the draft. Arizona’s wins came against the Bengals and Falcons. Are the Giants that much better?
The Cardinals rushing offense has been ranked at the top of the league in some advanced analytics statistics. They are ranked fourth by Pro Football Outsiders. The only real concern with the Cardinals is that David Johnson and Christian Kirk will both be game-time decisions. The offense can afford to miss Kirk. It can not afford to miss Johnson.
New York does get Saquon Barkley back which adds a whole new dynamic to the offense, but it also is the first time the coaches will have to juggle getting the ball to Saqon and keeping Daniel Jones in rhythm. The Giants had 10 days to prepare for this game after losing to the Patriots on Thursday night in Week 6.
Speaking of that Patriots game, it was supposedly a game where the Giants gave one of the best teams in the AFC a game. As a reminder, the Giants gave up 427 yards of offense and 35 points. If that’s a good performance by the Giants and their defense, then I’d hate to see what a mediocre or bad performance looks like.
The Cardinals defense isn’t much better which is why we’ll take the over — buying the half point down to bring it to 49 for insurance. Murray and Jones will have the battle between the two highest picked quarterbacks in 2019 and Murray will come out on top.
Houston Texas +3 (-155) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
This is when someone says, “Hey! This game is actually a 1.5 point spread.” Well, this is a time you can buy points. It will cost you extra money — at the ratio of $155 to win $100 — but it’s probably worth it.
This spread makes no sense. The Colts are coming off a bye and they are home, but should they really be favored against the Texans — a team coming off a huge win in Kansas City?
Here’s the only logic that works with this spread. The Colts beat the Chiefs in Kansas City by using a pounding physical offense and an athletic defense that matched up well with the Chiefs. The Texans are basically the AFC South version of the Chiefs. The Colts are at home. The Colts should be favored.
That’s fine but the Texans defense is slightly better than the Chiefs defense. Deshaun Watson is also slightly more of a threat to run than Patrick Mahomes. He’s been bending defenses and finding receivers all season. Mahomes has been slowed with an ankle injury.
So why buy the points? Insurance. Let’s buy it up to three. It makes the bet more expensive — or lowers the return if you use a standard unit — but it’s worth it. You’ll be thanking me if you get a push on a last-second Indy field goal.
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The only thing the Redskins have going for them in this game is that it’s homecoming. Yes, an NFL has a homecoming game. It is a homecoming game after one away game in October. It’s all very weird.
For anyone doubting San Francisco, the Niners are good. They are very good. The only team close to as good as the Niners in defensive DVOA is the Patriots. That’s it. Those two teams are in the league of their own.
There’s nothing that makes this game different from the Patriots-Redskins game two weeks ago. That was the game where the Redskins had no answer for the Patriots defense and New England won 33-7. The Niners defensive line is absolutely going to wreak havoc against the bad Redskins offensive line. Washington won’t be able to do much. This is also a Kyle Shanahan revenge game. The Niners are going to win big. This game needs to be at two touchdowns.
10-Point Three-Team Teaser
San Francisco 49ers +0.5 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Miami Dolphins+25.5 over BUFFALO BILLS
Miami Dolphins/BUFFALO BILLS Under 49.5
Let’s take the Niners game and move it into a situation where all San Francisco has to do is win. That sounds good.
As for the Bills-Dolphins game, this is a decision based strictly on Buffalo’s personality as a team. They aren’t the type of team that explodes on offense and puts the game out of reach early. They are more like a python, slowly squeezing their opponents with their powerful defense and grinding out yards on offense. They want to make games slow. They want to win ugly. They trust their defense enough to do that.
A nice trick sharps like to do is take big spread teams when there is also a low under. The idea is that if you love the under, the underdog getting a ton of points makes sense because there won’t be a ton of points and the big spread will be tough to cover. A touchdown means that 21-7 or 23-10 ends in a cover. What we did is take even more points on the big underdog and the spread.
The Bills will win this game. They may win this game easily. Covering more than three touchdowns is tough in any situation.
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 over ATLANTA FALCONS
Normally I am not a fan of betting against home underdogs. It’s just a personal thing. Well, the Falcons are home-dogs.
The Falcons also have one of the worst passing defenses in the league and the Rams offense is coming into Atlanta to get right. They won’t have to worry about Jared Goff facing a ton of pressure because the Falcons rarely get pressure on the quarterback. Goff plays well when he is not harassed in the pocket. One of his bigger problems is holding onto the football, but he can do that if the offensive line keeps him clean. The Falcons also looked like a team that didn’t know their coverages last week in Arizona.
The Rams will have their shiny new toy at cornerback. Jalen Ramsey will match up with Julio Jones — if Ramsey plays — and that means the Falcons will have to find offense elsewhere. They have the weapons to do so, but it will be interesting to see who steps up and what the new-look Rams defense shows on the field this Sunday.
The Rams need this game. They could really put any chances at making the playoffs in peril if they lose. That’s why they win by three and cover.
Oakland Raiders +5.5 over GREEN BAY PACKERS
No one seems to believe in the Raiders. They are coming off a bye this week. They’ll have a good gameplan. They will try and keep things close.
The plan will involve running the football because that is something Oakland does well. Their offensive line is built to pound the football. The Packers run defense is that unit’s weakness. It will be tough to move the ball through the air, but Josh Jacobs should be able to grind out yards.
As for the Packers, this was going to be a bit of a trap game. They were supposed to have their focus on the Chiefs next week. That isn’t the case anymore due to Patrick Mahomes’ injury, but now the Packers could relax and think two wins are set up for them. The Packers look good early in games when they have their plays scripted and then let teams creep back into things. If they aren’t prepared, the Raiders could surprise them.
Here’s another reason I am taking Oakland. I looked at this game and immediately wanted to put all the money on Green Bay. Maybe take out a loan, sell off some belongings, figure things out later. That type of confidence is scary. We are pulling a Costanza and going the other way with this bet.
DALLAS COWBOYS -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles
A lot of people love the Eagles this week. They like Philadelphia getting 2.5 points. They like Philadelphia on the moneyline. They like Philadelphia in a boat. They like Philadelphia wearing a coat.
The Cowboys are falling apart after a hot start. They haven’t defeated any team that can even be characterized as good. Jason Garrett is going to be replaced by Urban Meyer if we believe recent rumors. The Cowboys are overhyped.
That isn’t the case. Dallas has one of the deeper teams in the league. They have a ton of talent at multiple positions. Their defense is good. Their skill players are complementary. Their offensive line should be better this week because it looks like Tyron Smith and La’el Collins will both be back on the field.
That means that Dak Prescott may actually get some protection. There’s no point in trying to pound the ball against the Philly front so the Cowboys will have to win through the air. The Eagles defensive backfield is not good right now. Injuries have taken its toll.
The Cowboys defense should play better at home. It might not be an easy win, but the Cowboys take this home.
10-Point Three-Team Teaser
Los Angeles Rams / ATLANTA FALCONS Under 64.5
New Orleans Saints / CHICAGO BEARS Over 27.5
NEW YORK JETS + 19.5 over New England Patriots
Alright, let’s great crazy.
The normal thing to do here would be to tease the Rams-Falcons total down and take the over. The Falcons defense has been bad all year and the Rams should be able to move the football. The Falcons offense is good and the Rams are going through a defensive makeover getting rid of both their starting corners and losing a safety. So the over is the right play. Wrong. The 64.5 number is pretty high and one of these offenses will disappoint.
The same logic is being used in the Saints-Bears total. Both teams haven’t been able to move the ball. Their defenses have carried the team. Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook are out for the Saints. Teddy Bridgewater has no weapons. The Saints defense has been lockdown since Drew Brees went out with injury. The Chicago offense isn’t anything to write home about. Tease it up and go with the under. Except we are doing the opposite. The thing is that 27.5 points are not a lot of points to get over.
Also, why not simply tease the Patriots down to +0.5 and walk away with a win when New England takes home an easy victory in New Jersey. Well, we are fading my original thought process so there is one reason. Another reason is that the Jets are a completely different team with Sam Darnold at quarterback. The Patriots offense has huge holes. They will be playing without either of their tight ends that received the majority of snaps this season — which might not matter — and Josh Gordon — who has disappointed anyway. They also face a Jets defense that is getting healthy. This feels like the Patriots-Bills game all over again and that means it’s safer to take the 19.5 points.
Now I’ve got everyone’s mind in a pretzel. I said to fade me, but I faded myself in some picks. Good luck.
2019 Record: 11-17
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
