The UFC is in Chicago on Saturday for the UFC 238 pay-per-view, which features two title fights – and a “people’s main event” – at the top of the card.
In the headlining bout, flyweight champion Henry Cejudo looks to become a two-division UFC champion when he faces former World Series of Fighting bantamweight champion Marlon Moraes for the vacant 135-pound title.
In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko puts her women’s flyweight title on the line for the first time against the surging Jessica Eye.
As for the contest the UFC is advertising as “the people’s main event,” that three-round lightweight bout pits former interim champion Tony Ferguson against Donald Cerrone.
There are also a few fights on the card that could determine title challengers in the bantamweight and women’s strawweight division.
UFC 238 takes place Saturday at United Center. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
Inside, check out nine burning questions about the fight card.
1. Do I hear the death knell?
If you peek at the official UFC flyweight rankings, you’ll find the division has only 12 ranked fighters and a champion. The reason for that? The UFC has been actively culling its herd of 125-pound male competitors. With Cejudo, who is the No. 1 ranked fighter in the USA TODAY Sports/MMA Junkie MMA flyweight rankings, taking a run at the vacant bantamweight title at UFC 238, the question mark surrounding the future of the promotion’s flyweight division is now bigger, bolder, italicized and underlined more than it was in January when UFC president Dana White refused to comment on the future prospects of the weight class.
Not long ago, Cejudo said he was trying to keep the 125-pound division a going concern, but with the ongoing roster cuts he feared he would, “have a belt with nobody in my weight class.” Cejudo said that before the most recent roster purge.
It’s not out of the question that the UFC could dissolve the flyweight division if Cejudo (14-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) defeats Moraes (22-5-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC), who is ranked No. 2 at bantamweight, in Chicago. And if Cejudo loses? Well, there’s still no guarantee the division has a long-term future.
2. What about those title fights?
If I were one of the four fighters competing in the two title fights at the top of this card, I might be carrying a Giant Rock sized chip on my shoulder entering UFC 238. Why? Because the UFC saw fit to release a standalone video preview for the bout between Ferguson and Cerrone not long after that contest became official. As of this writing, there are still no standalone promos for either of the title fights on the UFC’s YouTube page. Meanwhile, the Ferguson (24-3 MMA, 14-1 UFC) vs. Cerrone (36-11 MMA, 23-8 UFC) promo video is closing in on 350,000 views.
I’m not saying that Cejudo, Moraes, Shevchenko and Eye will see that marketing gambit as a slight, but I am saying they should.
3. Will the change be for the best?
Eye made a significant change in 2018 when she moved from bantamweight to flyweight. The hope was the drop to the 125-pound division would allow her to put a run of four straight losses behind her. It worked. Eye (14-6 MMA, 4-5 UFC) won three consecutive fights in 2018 and she is now the No. 3 ranked fighter in the women’s flyweight division. More important than that, Eye’s run at 125 pounds secured her a shot at Shevchenko (16-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC), who is the No. 1 ranked competitor in the division.
So, if one change worked out, why not make another one ahead of the biggest fight of her career? Eye did just that when she left her team at Strong Style Training Center, packed up and moved approximately 2,100 miles to Las Vegas. Eye now trains at the UFC Performance Institute. By the sound of things, she couldn’t be happier.
Eye’s strategy is a bold one and if it pays off and she wrests the title away from Shevchenko she will pull off one of the biggest upsets in the history of UFC title fights, the odds against her defeating Shevchenko are as high as 16-1.
4. Should we be worried?
Look, we’re all happy that Ferguson, who is the No 2 ranked lightweight fighter and the No. 4 ranked Cerrone are fighting each other at UFC 238. That’s undeniable, but the question here isn’t will this fight be exciting and incredible, we know the odds are good that it will be, the question should be, should this fight be happening right now?
It wasn’t that long ago that Ferguson’s estranged wife, Cristina, detailed some disturbing and frankly, frightening behavior from the former interim lightweight champion that dated back to January 2018, when she filed for a temporary restraining order. That restraining order later expired without incident.
Ferguson has said the UFC and his management team have been helping him with the help he needs, but questions remain if this fight is good for Ferguson’s well being.
Fighter health and safety should not stop with the physical side of MMA, it also needs to include the mental health of the competitors.
5. How will the bantamweight division shakeout?
Don’t be surprised if the next bantamweight title challenger comes out of UFC 238. Before the main event fighters get down and determine who will be the next 135-pound champion, four competitors who are all ranked in the top 15 face off in two high-stakes bantamweight contests.
On the prelims, the No. 4 ranked Aljamain Sterling (17-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) faces Pedro Munhoz (18-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) who checks in at No. 6, while on the pay-per-view portion of the event, No. 5 ranked Jimmie Rivera (22-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC) meets the No. 12 ranked Petr Yan (12-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC).
Sterling and Munhoz, who are both on three-fight winning streaks, angled for the title shot that went to Cejudo and Moraes. Yan is unbeaten in his four UFC fights and on a seven-fight winning streak overall. Rivera is the long shot. He is 1-2 in his past three outings.
If you’re like me, you enjoy when the UFC books things in this manner. It’s a way for the promotion to almost guarantee the fights will be must-watch affairs.
The gold ring (or is that octagon shaped belt?) is hanging out there, it’s up to one of these guys to make a violent grab for it.
6. Will Suarez or Ansaroff secure a title shot?
Before she won Season 23 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Tatiana Suarez did not have a spot in the women’s strawweight rankings. Today, after three stoppage wins in her four UFC outings, including a recent TKO over ex-champion Carla Esparza, Suarez (7-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is sitting at No. 4 in the division and could be next in line for a shot at the 115-pound title. Standing in her way to that potential title fight against Jessica Andrade is Nina Ansaroff (10-5 MMA, 4-2 UFC), who went from fighting for her job after two straight losses to the No. 9 spot in the division thanks to four consecutive wins.
There is a wildcard in this situation and that comes in the person of Michelle Waterson. Waterson, who is ranked No. 12, in the division, is clearly a favorite of the UFC and its ownership group. If the matchup between Suarez and Ansaroff does not deliver a bonus-worthy performance than it would not be at all surprising to see Waterson leapfrog to a title fight. If Suarez and Ansaroff have paid attention to the goings on in the division, they are both aware of what they need to do in Chicago.
7. Is this where things turn serious?
Tai Tuivasa more or less cruised through his first 10 fights on toughness, charisma and power, but mostly power. In his 11th fight, he ran into ex-UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos, who possessed the same traits as Tuivasa, but who also had the benefit of skill and experience on his side. Dos Santos put the first blemish on Tuivasa’s record via a second-round TKO in December.
In February, Tuivasa told MMA Junkie that the loss was a learning experience and that his next opponent should watch out. The affable Australian, who might be better known for imbibing beer from random footwear than for his scrapping skills, added that the time was right to start to take this whole fighting in a cage for money thing more seriously.
Tuivasa (8-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC), who is ranked No. 12 in the heavyweight division, makes his return to action on the PPV portion of UFC 238, where he faces the No. 13 ranked Blagoy Ivanov (17-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC).
At 26, Tuivasa could have a bright future ahead of him, but he needs to show that he’s more than a powerful dude with a somewhat questionable, in terms of hygiene, gimmick.
8. What was the plan here?
We shouldn’t be surprised by this, but UFC president Dana White allegedly told both Joanne Calderwood (13-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) and her opponent at UFC 238, Katlyn Chookagian (11-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) they would serve as a back-up for the women’s flyweight title fight that sits in the co-main event position of UFC 238. Now, unless both Shevchenko and Eye had both fallen out of the bout and the UFC had stripped Shevchenko of the title, we all know that it’s nearly impossible for two fighters to serve as a back-up plan for one fight.
And that begs the question: What was White thinking?
Perhaps White was dangling that carrot to both fighters in the hopes that it would send a jolt into their Reptilian Brains and get them ready for the toughest fight of their career thus increasing the chances that the curtain jerker for UFC 238 will deliver spectacular performances from both fighters. Or maybe White was just saying stuff. Me, I’d prefer to believe it was the former and that we’re in for a competitive and fun fight between the No. 6 ranked Chookagian and the No. 13 ranked Calderwood.
9. Has Angela Hill found her niche?
Angela Hill has struggled to find her place in the UFC. The former Invicta strawweight champion is 3-4 with the promotion and has yet to put together two straight victories. She hopes to do just that when she faces Yan Xiaonan on short notice at UFC 238.
If you’re thinking, didn’t Hill just fight twice? You are correct. Randa Markos submitted her on March 23. Hill then accepted a short notice bout against Jodie Esquibel on April 27. Hill won that fight by decision. When Felice Herrig dropped out of UFC 238, Hill (9-6 MMA, 3-4 UFC) raised her hand to face Xiaonan (10-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC).
The UFC matchmakers have a soft spot for fighters like Hill who want to stay active and always say yes to a challenge no matter when the call to accept a fight comes in. If that’s a role Hill is willing to fill, and it seems like she is, it could prove to be a pretty smart way to keep herself on the UFC roster. It also doesn’t hurt that Hill, who is an honorable mention in the women’s strawweight rankings, has a great personality and is a marketable commodity.
For more on UFC 238, visit the UFC Rumors section of the site.
