The world of sports gambling is a tough one, but it is a billion-dollar a year industry. Each individual bettor makes their money by looking for (and identifying) discrepancies in betting odds.
When you find the odds you like, it is then having the courage to trust your instincts and bet accordingly. Now, you should never bet more than you can afford to lose, and you should treat it as entertainment only.
Before I get into the picks, a couple notes I wish to cover for those of you who don’t partake in the world of sports betting.
Inside the parentheses for each particular bet are two numbers. The first indicates the current over/under spot, meaning that is the number we are betting on. If the number is 16.5, as it is with CJ Henderson, and we take the under, that means we think Henderson will be picked anywhere from pick 1 through pick No. 16. Anything from pick No. 17 onward would constitute a loss.
The second number indicates the odds. -110 means you have to bet $110 to win $100. Unfortunately, the house (casino, sportsbook) makes their money on that -110, which they call the rake, vig, or juice. The rake can be different for every bet. If you see odds that are greater than -110, that means it’s the favored side and you pay a premium for taking that side.
Additionally, if you see odds that show a +, that means you are taking an underdog. +120 means you would bet $100 to win $120. Lastly, I have included a confidence meter, 1-5, with 5 being my most confident picks.
So, without further ado, here are my favorite picks, identified from BetMGM:
CJ Henderson, CB, Florida (16.5, -110) – Under
Henderson has separated himself as the favorite to be the second cornerback to be selected in the draft. Cornerback has become a critical position, with teams looking to build their defense with edge rushers and cornerbacks.
The Jaguars pick No. 9, and they traded away Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye in the last year. The Jets pick at No. 11 and need help pretty much everywhere. The Raiders pick at No. 12, and their two biggest needs are at cornerback and wide receiver.
With the depth of the receiver class, Henderson has become a prime target. The 49ers are also in the market for a cornerback at pick 13, and Henderson is definitely on their radar. I’d be thoroughly shocked if Henderson fell outside of the top 12-13 picks.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 5
Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame (44.5, -110) – Over
Kmet may be the best tight end in the draft. And while there aren’t any premier prospects at the position, there are a handful of second-tier guys that could be rated similarly. Kmet, Adam Trautman, Hunter Bryant, Brycen Hopkins, and a few others are all relatively interchangeable. Their draft position would just depend on what you really want from your tight end.
The Bears pick at No. 43, but that is their first selection and they just gave Jimmy Graham a large contract. The Colts pick at No. 44 and did just lose Eric Ebron in free agency, so they are the one team that scares me with this particular bet.
I still think they would be better suited waiting on tight end and taking one a little later.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 4
Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama (24.5, -110) – Over
McKinney may be the most complete safety in the draft. He’s very good around the line of scrimmage and shows enough athleticism to play on the back end or in the slot. The problem is the depth of the position and the needs of the teams picking in that range where a safety would make sense.
The Cowboys, picking at No. 17, have a need at safety, but they did sign Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix. The Raiders will draft a safety at some point, but not at 19. Not with last year’s first-round pick Johnathan Abram coming back and the signing of Damarious Randall on Thursday night.
The Jaguars pick at No. 20 and could certainly stand to upgrade, but they have a lot of needs as a true rebuilding team and safety should not be a priority. The Vikings pick at No. 22 but have far too many needs at other positions, like receiver and cornerback, to spend the first of their two first-round picks on the position.
Players projected to go on the first two days of the draft at the safety position include McKinney, Grant Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr, Jeremy Chinn, Kyle Dugger, Terrell Burgess, Alohi Gilman, Brandon Jones, K’Von Wallace, and XFL alum Kenny Robinson Jr.
Despite McKinney being a very good prospect, there are too many potential starters for McKinney to land in the top 25 picks.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 3
Josh Jones, OT, Houston (27.5, -110) – Under
Jones had a phenomenal Senior Bowl week in Mobile, solidifying himself as a first-rounder. Pro Football Focus also has graded Jones with the top grade in both run blocking and pass blocking.
He’s athletic and happens to play the position NFL teams covet the most along the offensive line. There are four offensive tackle prospects that could go in the top 10-14 picks (Jedrick Wills, Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs, and Andrew Thomas), but Jones shouldn’t be too far behind them.
The Dolphins could certainly take Jones as soon as pick No. 18, but they also own the No. 26 pick. The Vikings have holes all along their offensive line and pick No. 22 and No. 25. The Patriots could be in the market as well, picking No. 23 overall.
There are simply too many teams looking to upgrade at the position to let a player of Jones’ talent level to fall too far.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 5
Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama (27.5, -110) – Over
Diggs is a very good player, but he happens to be scheme-specific. I’m not sure he has the speed to play in a true man-to-man defense. He would be best suited in a cover 3 where he can jump routes and use his elite ball skills to create turnovers. The problem is that there just aren’t a ton of landing spots for Diggs.
One of his primary suitors was sure to be the Vikings, but they just traded away big brother Stefon, so I can’t imagine that pairing coming to fruition. The Seahawks are definitely a fit, but the cornerback position isn’t close to being the biggest need for Pete Carroll and company.
Plus, there are too many other cornerbacks that possess all of the traits you want in a potential lockdown corner for Diggs to be picked this high.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 4
Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina (13.5, -121) – Over
Kinlaw has been getting some buzz as a top-10 player in the draft. I just don’t see it. While I am a big fan of his talent, the production doesn’t match up with what teams want with an interior penetrator. There is an injury history here, with Kinlaw having hip surgery after the 2018 season.
The Cardinals, picking at No. 8, and the Jaguars, picking at No. 9, both make some sense for Kinlaw, but those teams have other needs that they certainly should be addressing first. The Buccaneers pick at No. 14, which constitutes a win for this bet, are my favorite to take the plunge.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 3.5
Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU (34.5, -110) – Under
Gladney is a personal favorite in this draft class. He’s a dog, and in football terms, that’s exactly what you want. He thinks he’s the best player on the field every time he steps foot onto the gridiron. He’s aggressive, he’s fast, he has the short-area quickness, and he plays through the catch point.
Teams picking in the late teens, such as the Raiders at No. 19, Jaguars at No. 20, Eagles at No. 21, Vikings at No. 22 or No. 25, 49ers at No. 31, and Chiefs at No. 32 are all in play for Gladney’s services. This is a player that teams will fall in love with on tape and through the (online) interview process.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 4.5
Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma (21.5, -110) – Over
Murray is an athletic linebacker that loves to get downhill and be physical. The biggest knock teams will have on Murray is the lack of tape of him dropping into coverage. He simply wasn’t asked to do that too much at Oklahoma, and that could move him down draft boards. This is not to say he cannot cover, but teams will have questions.
In addition, LSU linebacker Patrick Queen seems to have jumped Murray in the linebacker pecking order, and there simply aren’t enough teams seeking linebackers for Murray to go inside the top 21 picks.
The Cowboys, picking at No. 17, have done their homework, but they should be prioritizing cornerback and edge rusher over linebacker (as should just about every team). The Eagles, picking at No. 21, also make sense, but they need perimeter help on offense and defense, and drafting a linebacker can wait a round or two.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 5
Total Linebackers Selected in 1st Round (4.5, -250) – Under
UNDER. UNDER. UNDER. Please take the under. I know the line is a little steep at -200, but this one is worth it. There simply aren’t enough linebackers worthy of being drafted this high. Now, make sure your book considers Chase Young and Julian Okwara defensive ends, but this should be fairly routine. Isaiah Simmons, Kenneth Murray, and Patrick Queen are all nearly certain to go inside the top 32 selections.
Wisconsin EDGE/LB Zack Baun should also go. But the next true linebacker probably isn’t going inside the top 50 selections, making this a pretty safe bet. Even if Okwara is considered a linebacker, he doesn’t have the first round buzz that these other guys to. Lay the money. Lay it.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 5
