The Super Bowl is the last gasp to bet on football — outside of the XFL — and this is the time with most bets possible. People love player props — and books like them too since fans usually lose money on them — and we have a few to review for the Chiefs. Take a look.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Over – Under 295.5
Well, this is a tough one. Mahomes averaged 287.9 yards per game in the regular season. Pro Football Reference has him projected for 314 yards in the Super Bowl. Mahomes has thrown for 321 yards against the Texans and 294 yards against the Titans.
The Chiefs will have to attack the Niners defense through the air. The Niners have shut down opposing rushing attacks the past two games. If Andy Reid is smart, he’s going to let his all-world quarterback win him this game. Take over with Mahomes. Always take the over.
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards
Over – Under 74.5
If we are taking Mahomes over 295 yards, we almost have to take Hill over 74.5 yards receiving. The Chiefs have Travis Kelce, but he’s not going to put up over 200 yards receiving. Hill can wreak havoc on defenses that play zone. He finds a soft spot and then his speed kicks in giving him great yards after catch stats. Plus, he catches shovel passes off of jets sweeps. Sure it looks like a run, but it goes in the books as a reception.
The Niners don’t have anyone who can match up with Hill one on one and they play a lot of zone. Andy Reid will have a nice scheme to get the ball into Hill’s hands with space in front of him. Take the over.
Travis Kelce Receptions
Over-Under 5.5
San Francisco has given up 4.44 receptions per game to tight ends this season. Their season-high given up is nine but they’ve only given up more than five receptions to a tight end six times — including the playoffs.
But they haven’t faced anyone of Kelce’s caliber because the other best tight end in the NFL happens to play in San Francisco. Kelce is a huge part of the offense and is still one of Mahomes’ main targets. He has been dropping the ball recently — or at least it feels that way — so there is some concern with the over here.
Here’s the thought process: San Francisco will either focus their efforts stopping Kelce or stopping Hill. If we take the Hill over, we may want to take the Kelce under. Seems fair. Kelce will catch five passes, which means it’s the under.
Damien Williams Receptions
Over – Under 3.5
Williams played in 11 games and have 30 receptions. That’s right around the number. Except, in the last game he caught five passes. The Niners defense gives up 4.33 receptions to running backs this year. They’ve given up more than 3 receptions 12 times. The Packers moved the ball down the field when they used Aaron Jones in the passing game.
The Chiefs will do the same. Expect Williams to act as a safety valve in the offense. When the pressure gets close to Mahomes, he can fling the ball out in Williams in open space. We’re taking the over.
Tyrann Mathieu Tackles/Assists
Over – Under 5.5
If you’ve watched Mathieu play at all this season, you’d know he’s been all over the field. He’s everywhere. He’s coming up to the line to stop the run — and he will have to do that this week — and he’s making plays down the field in the passing game. He rarely misses tackles in the open field.
This one almost seems too easy. Take the over and don’t think about it. The Chiefs should use Mathieu’s ability close to the line to stop the Niners running game and make life difficult for George Kittle.
Will Patrick Mahomes throw an interception?
Yes +105, No -135
Mahomes is going to be throwing the ball a lot — or at least that’s what we are expecting with our other bets. That means more chances to throw a pick, which he hasn’t done very often this year. He’s had five interceptions all season. He hasn’t thrown a pick in the playoffs.
This is where the odds come in. That +105 looks juicy and the Niners do put a ton of pressure on the quarterback. That could force Mahomes to throw the ball into coverage, but the Niners only have three interceptions all season.
Yes, the +105 looks tasty and Mahomes may be due, but it’s tough to take the Yes here so we will go with No.
Longest Reception for Tyreek Hill
Over – Under 27.5
The cover three defense the Niners play should limit big plays from Hill, but if Hill catches it in open space, he will have room to run. We’ve already taken his over on yards, so we might as well take the over here as well.
Players to record a sack
Frank Clark -120
Chris Jones -120
Let’s take both. One of them is going to have to have a sack. It’s the only real option for the Chiefs since we aren’t going to rely on Terrell Suggs to get to the quarterback.
Harrison Butker
Over – Under 8.5 points
The Chiefs want to score touchdowns. They do not want to kick field goals. The Niners defense would love if the Chiefs start kicking field goals. Right now the Chiefs offense is a machine. He’ll kick some extra points, but betting on field goals will be tough. Under 8.5.
