My normal advice would to not bet this weekend. Don’t do it — especially before knowing every teams’ situation since the late games have some large dependencies on the early game results. The problem is that I am two games below .500 and we have to get to at least .500. Last year, it was a 59-59-2 finish. This year the standings currently sit at 55-57-2.
The problem is that isn’t a win. Let’s say we put a unit on every bet — a unit is your standard bet and it can be $5 or $500 — then we’d lose the vig or 10 percent. A $100 wager on every bet would mean down at least $570. That’s not the case since we had some big moneyline underdogs hit and a parlay here and there. We’ll be using units next year.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Let’s get to it.
10 Point Three-Team Teaser
New Orleans Saints -2.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 over Miami Dolphins
GREEN BAY PACKERS -5.5 over Detroit Lions
Here’s what you should do if you absolutely have to bet on Week 17 of the season — and we must because soon there will be no football to bet on and that is going to make us all sad pandas — and it’s bet on games where teams that absolutely need to win are facing teams that wouldn’t mind losing to keep a better draft slot.
The Saints need to beat the Panthers to have any shot at a bye in the NFC. Well, 12.5 points is a lot of points even for a Panthers team that is probably going to start Will Grier and only focus on Christian McCaffrey’s personal accolades. So, tease it down to a field goal game. It’s not difficult to win by just three points when a bye in the playoffs relies on it.
Which brings us to New England. Their offense didn’t look bad last week against a good defense. The problem is that 15.5 points are too much against a Dolphins team that will play hard for coach Brian Flores. Flores also knows the Patriots system. A touchdown seems like the right spread.
Finally, it’s the Packers. I’ve been down on the Packers all year. Their offense moves in fits and starts. They haven’t showcased Aaron Jones enough to my liking. The thing is they did that last week. They also are going up against David Blough. There’s no way they don’t win a home game by less than a touchdown.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -1.5 over Atlanta Falcons and Over 48
Because this is exactly what the Falcons would do. They would close out their season on an outrageous hot streak looking like the team that made the playoffs — and the Super Bowl — in the past few years and then they would lose the game immediately after Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff’s jobs’ were announced to be safe in 2020.
Because the Bucs would drop 35 points on an Atlanta defense that actually looks good the past few weeks. Jameis will probably have six touchdown passes and four interceptions. That’s how this all works. It’s so not obvious that it’s too obvious.
Three Team Parlay
New York Jets +1.5 over BUFFALO BILLS
CINCINNATI BENGALS +3 (-135) over Cleveland Browns
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3.5 over Indianapolis Colts
You want to get nuts? Let’s get nuts.
The Jets win this game outright because the Bills have nothing to play for and should be resting their entire defense. Basically throw out all the backups and let Sam Darnold and company cook against you, Buffalo. That probably keeps Adam Gase around for another year anyway.
The Bengals win because it would be very Bengals of them to do so. Cleveland has given up on the season. They are playing out the string. There’s no way Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry can get Freddie Kitchens fired if they win this game and finish 7-9 . . . but 6-10 looks a lot worse. The Bengals already have the top pick in the draft locked up so Joe Burrow will be going to Cinci regardless of a win or loss here.
As for Jacksonville, this is a big celebration of the firing of Tom Coughlin game for all the players on the team who did not like Coughlin but still love Doug Marrone and his bologna sandwiches.
Is this a smart bet? Absolutely not. This will be the bet that puts us under .500 for the season. I know it. It’s fine. Like I said, let’s get nuts.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7 (-145) over Los Angeles Chargers
Buy it all the way down to seven points for posterity’s sake. There’s no way the Chiefs blow this game unless they would rather play the Bills at home in the first round of the playoffs and immediately go and play the Ravens in the second round. That would help them avoid the six-seed but the only reason to avoid the six seed is to avoid the Titans and they’d have to trust the Texans to win that game. Look, this is Chiefs all the way. The Chargers have looked horrible. Philip Rivers could be done. The Chargers have little to play for. It seems too easy.
Tennessee Titans -4.5 over HOUSTON TEXANS
Once the Chiefs beat the Chargers in the early session, the Texans will have nothing to play for. I’ve been told the Titans are the third-best team in the AFC for weeks now. Prove it.
Pittsburgh Steelers – BALTIMORE RAVENS Under 38.5
I want to take the Ravens getting points here, bad, but I won’t do it. I will take the under. The bloom is off the Duck Hodges rose. The Steelers offense can’t do anything. Please don’t put them in the playoffs to be sacrificed to the Chiefs. The Steelers defense is one of the best in the NFL and T. J. Watt needs a few strip-sacks to get him DPOY.
The Ravens aren’t starting their best offensive players. Don’t be afraid of taking the under in this rock fight.
Oakland Raiders +3.5 over DENVER BRONCOS
This is one team that has something to play for and the other team does not and the team with something to play for is getting points bet. Take the points. Just take the points. It’s not even “just win, baby!” Just cover.
The Raiders need about four different things to happen for them to make the playoffs, but those things could happen. Derek Carr will be the good version of himself instead of the bad version. Josh Jacobs may even play although he had a skin infection on his league and a badly banged up shoulder to deal with all week. I’ve just seen too many Drew Lock games at Missouri. The second you want to trust Lock, he does the opposite of what you expect.
Two Team Six-Point Teaser
DALLAS COWBOYS -4.5 over Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Cowboys will beat the Redskins this weekend because the Redskins should have absolutely zero interest in winning this game and losing out on the chase for Chase (Young).
As for the Eagles, this one is a bit scarier. This is the exact game the Eagles lose to allow the Cowboys to get into the playoffs. So, let’s tease it down. If they lose, they will lose in some heartbreaking fashion by a point. Well, we teased it to get a point and a half.
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 55-57-2
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
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