One of the most important things about gambling on football is to know when you are on a hot streak. For example, in Week 9, we eeked out a winning week. That’s apparently what we needed to catch fire in Week 10 because last week’s picks went 7-2 with an outright moneyline winner. The only losses were with a teaser — makes sense — and the Cowboys somehow blowing a chance to beat the Vikings.
So when you’re hot, it’s not a bad idea to press. Maybe increase the number of units you have on a game. Maybe just bet a game you have a slight feel on instead of games where you’re completely confident. It’s part of the deal. There are ups and downs so when there are ups, hop on and ride that hot streak.
Let’s get to Week 11. Home teams in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Atlanta Falcons +5.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS
We are starting with the hottest of takes. The Falcons may win this game outright. I don’t know how Atlanta pulled me back in, but they did after last week’s performance.
This bet already sounds dumb in my head. The Falcons will need to stop the only non-quarterback MVP candidate and it might be tough to do so since no one stops Christian McCaffrey.
The thing is we need to take an underdog somewhere and the Falcons are frisky underdogs. Their defense looked better last week. Matt Ryan is back. They don’t have Devonta Freeman but that could be a blessing. Brian Hill will start and he looked good during his time last week. The Falcons played a ball-control offense. The Panthers may just let them do that.
Kyle Allen didn’t look bad last week and he should get credit for bouncing back after some people — read: me — gave up on him earlier in the year. The problem for the Panthers is that Allen is simply a game manager. He’s not going to win games and the way to beat the Falcons is through the air. Allen’s not going to do that.
The Panthers probably win this game, but it’s a field-goal contest.
Buffalo Bills – MIAMI DOLPHINS Under 40.5
The Buffalo Bills defense is good. The Miami Dolphins offense is not so good. The Buffalo Bills offense is also not good.
See, the Bills go under a lot because they can’t create big plays. Josh Allen has one of the worst — actually the worst — quarterback ratings on deep passes. Their offense relies fully on their ability to move the ball on long drives. That’s good if you have their running backs in fantasy. It’s bad if you take the over.
The Dolphins are almost on a three-game winning streak which would’ve sounded outrageous if we said that five weeks ago. That doesn’t mean they will put up numbers against a very good Bills defense. It’s time for Ryan Fitzpatrick to come back down to earth. The last time Miami played a very good defense, the Steelers dominated the game — after a shaky start.
Two Team Six-Point Tease
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -4.5 over Denver Broncos
Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
This is very simple but never bet against the Vikings in Minnesota. They play at a different level. Their defense is scarier — if that’s possible — and Kirk Cousins absolutely loves playing home games. The 10-point spread is a bit scary, but teasing it down should make things fine. Brandon Allen isn’t going to do much for Denver when he plays in Minnesota.
The Jaguars bet is more of a feel bet. They are coming off a bye. Nick Foles is returning. They have a defense that should keep things close. The Colts wide receivers are all injured outside of Zach Pascal, and with 9.5 points we would love for this game to turn into both teams handing the ball off. The Colts also play at one of the slower paces in the league which helps the teased up spread.
New Orleans Saints (-240) Moneyline over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
This doesn’t seem like a big bet, but I don’t like the Saints giving the points they are giving — 5.5 points — on the road against the Bucs. I also can’t bring myself to bet on Jameis Winston in any circumstance unless it’s an over total or I want to have a heart attack.
The Saints offense is explosive in reputation only. Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Brees rank toward the bottom of the league when it comes to passes traveling through the air to their receivers. They don’t stretch the field and that’s a problem since the way to beat the Bucs is through the air. Still, the Saints will figure out a way to win this game. They have to win to stay in the race for a bye. It would also be shocking to see them lose back to back games.
Arizona Cardinals – SAN FRANCISCO 49ers Over 45.5
The last time these two teams played they scored 53 points. That’s it. That’s the main reason to take this over.
Also, Kyler Murray is rounding into form and he’s one of the most fun quarterbacks to watch every Sunday. The Cardinals now have Kenyan Drake and David Johnson which should scare Niners fans who worry about San Francisco’s run defense.
The Niners should score against a bad Arizona defense even with George Kittle and Matt Breida out. They do need to find someone for Jimmy Garoppolo to throw to if Emmanuel Sanders doesn’t play. Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis have been disappointments this season. Deebo Samuel could end up stepping up this week. I thought about betting on the Cardinals getting 11.5 points as well.
New England Patriots -3 (-135) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Patriots are 3-2 coming off a loss and a bye in the Belichick era. I would’ve thought the Patriot had a much higher level of success coming off a loss and a bye, but they apparently don’t lose that much and the loss-bye combo doesn’t happen as much as one might think.
In any case, I am taking the Patriots. Yes, the Eagles are getting healthy on defense, but the Patriots should be able to figure out ways to move the football through the passing game.
The Eagles are not as healthy as Alshon Jeffery has already been ruled out of this game. That actually shouldn’t worry Philadelphia that much since the trick to beating the vaunted Patriots defense is to run the football. The Eagles have done that well in their past few games. That’s exactly why I think Belichick will concoct a defense to stifle the run and force Carson Wentz to beat him through the air. That won’t happen.
LOS ANGELES RAMS -6.5 over Chicago Bears and Under 41.5
Taking the favorite and the under is always a risky proposition. Usually, the underdog and the under go hand in hand.
The Rams simply need to win this game. If they lose, any hopes of making the playoffs will be gone. Todd Gurley needs to show up somehow. If the Rams were resting him for the stretch run, this is the time to let him run wild. The real problem for the NFC Los Angeles team is that their offensive line has issues. That’s not great when you’re facing Khalil Mack. That’s part of the reason why I like the under. The other reason is obvious.
The Bears offense is bad. We know this. Mitch Trubisky has regressed. The Bears can’t throw to their tight ends. They struggle running the football. They have Allen Robinson and that’s about it on offense. Someone must’ve kidnapped Tarik Cohen. The Rams defense is good. So I don’t expect the Bears to put up a ton of points.
Los Angeles figures things out this week and wins 28-10.
Kansas City Chiefs -182 Moneyline over Los Angeles Chargers (Mexico City)
For the first time since the creation of these picks, I am going with two favorite moneyline winners. Yes, it means putting up more money to win, but it’s worth it. I’ve given out some underdog outright winners so it’s time to get the record back to .500.
The Chiefs are getting healthy. Patrick Mahomes will be one week better. Plus, their loss last week was a fluke. It pushed the spread down, but we still aren’t betting the spread because anything can happen in Mexico City.
The Chargers are done. They lost their loser leaves town match against Oakland last week. The thing about the Chargers is that Philip Rivers is always in some game-ending drive where he has to chance to win or tie. That’s why we will stay away from the spread and take the Chiefs to win outright.
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 29-33
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
