Home teams in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Three Team 10-Point Teaser
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5 over Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens +0.5 over CINCINNATI BENGALS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1.5 over Miami Dolphins
This is my favorite bet of the week which means there is no way it wins. Usually the most obvious three-team teaser figures out a way to not hit.
The Saints are coming off a bye. Everyone is healthy. They are looking to get the top seed in the NFC. Their defense has been great after the first few weeks of the season. In fact, the defense really carried the team during Brees’ absence.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are an absolute dumpster fire. They still haven’t fired Dan Quinn even though he is on the hottest of seats. The Falcons defense has been bad all year and that’s supposed to be Quinn’s specialty. The offense finds a way to move the ball, but somehow not score touchdowns. Devonta Freeman has looked a step slow this season and they no longer have Tevin Coleman to spell Freeman in the backfield. Maybe the Falcons come out with a new offense that relies heavily on Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, but they may have to score 40 to win this game. The half-point scares me, but the Saints should roll at home.
The Ravens-Bengals game screams letdown for Baltimore after last week’s huge win for the Ravens over the Patriots. The thing is, the Bengals don’t have the team to take advantage of that letdown. You’re telling me that Ryan Finley is going to throw against a Ravens secondary that is finally healthy? Good luck. The obvious thing for the Bengals to do would be to run the ball to ease in their rookie quarterback, but they have a historically bad rushing offense this year.
The Colts seem like a gimmie no matter who starts at quarterback. They simply have a better team. The Dolphins got their win last week and may play a bit more relaxed this week. The Colts should be able to run the ball against the Miami defense. The Dolphins lost their best offensive weapons this week now that Preston Williams tore his ACL and Mark Walton is suspended.
CLEVELAND BROWNS -2.5 over Buffalo Bills
It makes no sense that a 2-6 team is favored over a 6-2 team even if the Browns are at home. It makes even less sense picking the 2-6 team that is favored over the 6-2 team, but here we are.
I can’t quit picking the Browns. They are too good on paper. Here are some other reasons to pick Cleveland this week:
The Bills have played an insanely easy schedule and haven’t had a dominating win yet.
Baker Mayfield can’t get any sadder than he looked in the now infamous sad quarterback picture after Cleveland’s loss to Denver.
The Bills offense just gave up more than 100 yards rushing to Adrian Peterson. The Browns have Nick Chubb who is much better than Adrian Peterson. They also get Kareem Hunt back from suspension.
The Bills offense hasn’t looked great. Josh Allen is in the bottom third of almost any quarterback metric — standard or advanced — that’s out there.
Las Vegas knows something if the 2-6 Browns are essentially equal to the 6-2 Bills.
Arizona Cardinals / TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Over 52.5
The Cardinals are supposedly getting David Johnson back which gives them a dangerous one-two punch in the backfield with Johnson and Kenyan Drake. The problem for Arizona is that the Bucs don’t give up yards on the ground. Expect Kliff Kingsbury to use Johnson and Drake in the passing game out of the backfield.
The Cardinals will play at a high pace, but this over really relies on if we will see good Jameis Winston or bad Jameis Winston. The Bucs offense relies on the passing game. That means this game could stretch and the Bucs will put up points against a mediocre Arizona defense.
GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 (-155) over Carolina Panthers
This is a gut-feel pick. The Packers lost ugly last week. They will come back home and need to win this game to stay in the playoff-bye race. Kyle Allen is playing his first real cold-weather game. It will be below freezing and there might even be some snow. That won’t help Allen’s ball security.
So why buy it all the way down to three? The Packers don’t have a great rush defense and they happen to be going up against one of the best running backs in the NFL. Watch for McCaffrey running left and up the middle — per Warren Sharp.
DALLAS COWBOYS -2.5 over Minnesota Vikings
This is simply a bet against Kirk Cousins in a primetime game. We have to do it. Cousins isn’t the same quarterback in primetime. He’s not the same quarterback against good teams.
The Cowboys only beat themselves. They have a rough end of season schedule and need to win this game. The Vikings should regress back to the mean. This seems too easy.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3.5 over Los Angeles Rams
Under 44.5
The Steelers defense is ranked in the top-five in DVOA this season. They have talent all over the place. Their front is strong. T.J. Watt provides a nice pass rush off the edge. Minkah Fitzpatrick has been a revelation in the defensive backfield.
The Rams are coming off a bye so they should be prepared, but it’s hard to trust Jared Goff in cold weather and the entire east coast should see a dip in temperature this weekend.
As for the under, the Steelers offense isn’t impressive with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. There are a lot of early-down runs that lead to difficult third and long situations. Aaron Donald is coming home to Pittsburgh so expect a big game from him.
Seattle Seahawks +7 (-135) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
Teams may not be able to pass the ball against the Niners, but they can run the ball against them. Their wide-nine setup allows for natural running lanes. The Seahawks want to run the ball so this should work well for Seattle.
Plus the Seahawks have Russell Wilson and the MVP can make things happen when he is pressure — which he will be since the Niners defensive line is nightmare fuel for offensive lines.
The Niners are bound to have a game where they slip up. This might be last week’s Patriots-Ravens game.
NEW YORK JETS +125 over New York Giants
The battle for New York is a game between two of the worst teams in the NFL. Normally, this would be a stay-away game, but there’s too much novelty to this game.
The Jets will come back after losing to the Dolphins and be a bit more focused this week. They have to be. Loser gets to fire their coach.
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 22-31
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
