The number of candidates scheduled to run in the next House of Representatives election was 836 as of Dec. 31 2020, including those in the process of being approved, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun tally. The ruling and opposition parties are hurrying to make preparations for the dissolution and a general election as the term for lower house members expires on Oct. 21 this year.
When Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga was asked about the dissolution at a press conference on Dec. 25, he stressed, "For the time being, we will do our utmost to deal with the novel coronavirus." As the spread of infections continues unabated, he intends to prioritize measures to combat the virus and then find a time to dissolve the house.
The lower house has 465 seats. According to The Yomiuri Shimbun's count, 770 people have indicated their intention to run in single-seat constituencies (289 seats), and 66 people in the proportional representation race (176 seats), excluding candidates who are running for both.
So far, the Liberal Democratic Party has unofficially nominated candidates in over 260 constituencies, while Komeito has announced its intention to field candidates in 10 constituencies. The focal point for the LDP and Komeito is the coordination of candidates in Hiroshima No. 3 constituency, after former justice minister Katsuyuki Kawai left the LDP in a bribery scandal over the 2019 House of Councillors election, and Komeito decided to back deputy party leader Tetsuo Saito without the LDP's approval. The Hiroshima prefectural chapter of the LDP reacted by filing a petition with the party's headquarters to nominate Rintaro Ishibashi, a prefectural assemblyman who was selected through an open recruitment process. If the confrontation drags on, it may affect cooperation between the LDP and Komeito in elections nationwide.
The LDP is also competing with multiple candidates in seven other constituencies, including Gunma No. 1 and Niigata No. 2 constituencies, and is hurrying to make arrangements.
The opposition parties, on the other hand, are facing the challenge of consolidating their candidates. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Japanese Communist Party are currently coordinating their official candidates in 203 and 125 constituencies respectively, but in 67 constituencies, the two parties' candidates overlap. The CDPJ, in cooperation with the Democratic Party for the People and the Social Democratic Party, is poised to field more than 233 candidates, which is equivalent to a majority of seats in the lower house. But in three constituencies it is also competing with the DPFP, which has candidates in 21 constituencies.
The opposition parties are aiming to work together in the double supplementary election for Hokkaido No. 2 constituency in the lower house and the Nagano constituency in the upper house, which will be held on April 25. In both constituencies, the CDPJ has a certain footing, and it hopes to gain momentum for the next lower house election by uniting the opposition candidates and defeating the LDP candidate.
Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), which keeps its distance from the opposition coalition, has informally nominated candidates in 58 constituencies. In addition to its stronghold in the Kansai region, the group will actively field candidates in the Tokyo metropolitan area, hoping to make the leap to becoming a national party. The Social Democratic Party, NHK kara Jikokumin o Mamoru To (The Party to Protect Citizens from NHK), and Reiwa Shinsengumi are also aiming to expand their parties.
There are whispers within the LDP about the timing of the dissolution and the general election. Potential dates appear to be: on the same day as the double supplementary elections to be held on April 25; on the same day as the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election to be held by July; or after the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics.
After the Suga administration took office last September, many in the LDP had hoped for an early dissolution while the Cabinet approval rating was still high. However, the resurgence of the coronavirus outbreak and the "politics and money" issues involving former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and former agriculture minister Takamori Yoshikawa have caused the party's approval rating to plummet, so the timing of the dissolution is now being narrowed down to spring or later.
The success or failure of infection control, including the progress of vaccination, is likely to affect the dissolution strategy.
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