ORLANDO, Fla. _ A low-pressure system in the southeastern United States has an 80% chance of tropical development as it moves toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said Monday. If it becomes a storm, it would be named Tropical Storm Barry.
"A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a couple of days," the hurricane center said in its 2 p.m. EDT update. "Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast."
Forecasters predict a 30% chance of tropical system development by Wednesday, as of the 2 p.m. update. Chances grew from the 10% chance of development originally issued at the 8 a.m. update.
Forecasters added: "Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system."
After first setting the odds of the system developing into a storm at 40% in a Sunday morning update, the hurricane center raised the odds to 50% at midday, 60% on Sunday night and then 70% early Monday morning.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are very high right now, which could help fuel any area of disturbed weather entering the region.
"It's about 85 degrees in the 'loop current,' which is the warmest part of the Gulf," said WOFL-Fox 35 meteorologist Glenn Richards. "This trough is going to pass over the 'loop current,' and the northern Gulf. I'm confident this will turn into a tropical depression."
Richards said odds are low that it will strengthen into a hurricane.
A reporting station in the Gulf south of Mobile, Ala., reported a water temperature of 86.9 degrees Monday morning while one northwest of Tampa Bay reported a temperature of 86.2 degrees. One station in the middle of the Gulf reported a temperature of 87.3.
