In this new weekly column that endeavors to merge fantasy with reality, Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar looks at eight on-field situations and tells you what they mean from a fantasy perspective.
Be more cautious about Jared Goff than the Rams were.
If you read this very long tape piece I wrote after the Rams signed Goff to a ginormous contract extension last week, you’ll know that I was underwhelmed by the deal. Goff is an average-to-very-good quarterback with very few truly great moments through his first three seasons, and given the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong in Week 1 against the Panthers, he did no such thing. Goff completed 23 of 39 passes for 186 yards, one touchdown and one interception against a fair Panthers secondary, and though the stats indicate a lot of checkdowns, Sean McVay gave Goff every possible opportunity to exploit that secondary with the deep ball. Goff was apparently having none of it.
Of his five deep passes, one was caught — by Carolina cornerback James Bradberry. Goff’s own receivers were less fortunate, as their quarterback was heaving inaccurate helium balls all over the place. Goff has New Orleans’ defense next Sunday afternoon in a rematch of last season’s NFC championship game, in which Goff did make multiple impressive deep throws. But he’ll need to be sharper than this.
If your quarterback is Matt Ryan, run faster than Matt Ryan can.
The thought was that even though Ryan was pressured on 14 of his 34 preseason dropbacks and sacked three times, Atlanta’s offensive line would figure it out in time for the regular season. Not so much. Not only was Ryan sacked four times against the Vikings, and three of those sacks came with less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket, per Pro Football Focus, but he was constantly pressured, and his efficiency suffered as a result. The Falcons were particularly vulnerable on the edge, but against the Eagles in Week 2, it won’t matter — Philly defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will be all about pressure, as he usually is. Ryan threw two touchdown passes against Minnesota after Mike Zimmer had called off the dogs; your best advice with Ryan in the long term would be to take those gifts and punt. This looks like a season-long liability for the Falcons.
When Two Become One: Tyler Lockett and JuJu Smith-Schuster
Every No. 2 receiver worth anything wants to become an alpha target. It’s an inevitable part of the competitive process. Reality can be far less appealing than fantasy in this case. When it happens, these newly crowned top receivers often need time to get used to being bracketed by coverage combinations and matched up with an opponent’s best cornerback. Two receivers who are undergoing this abrupt and uncomfortable transformation are Seattle’s Tyler Lockett and Pittsburgh’s JuJu Smith-Schuster — probably the NFL’s best secondary recovers in 2018.
But with Doug Baldwin retired and Antonio Brown very much out of the picture, Lockett and Smith-Schuster found things a bit more difficult in Week 1. Lockett caught just one pass for 44 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, and he had just two targets. Part of this can be laid at the feet of Seattle’s regressive play designs, in which the Seahawks want to party like it’s 1973 and pound the ball with the occasional deep shot off play-action, but another part was that the Bengals bracketed and focused on Lockett as they would have done to Baldwin if he had been there.
Smith-Schuster was limited to 78 yards on six receptions and eight targets against New England’s lockdown secondary. The Steelers and Seahawks get each other in Week 2, and neither secondary looks set up for success, which may be the saving grace for one or both players here.
Take the over on Dallas’ sub-targets.
On Sunday against the Giants, Dak Prescott became the fourth quarterback in NFL history (Ken Anderson, Kurt Warner, Jared Goff) to post a perfect passer rating of 158.3 with 30 or more passing attempts. His brilliant stat line (25 completions on 32 attempts for 405 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions) was partially the result of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s brilliant game plan, but Prescott had just as much to do with it. Clamped down by Scott Linehan’s restrictive passing game in the past, Prescott finally had a playbook that worked to his strengths, and you can expect that to continue against the Redskins in Week 2.
You can also probably expect the distribution to be most equitable — Prescott attempted passes to eight receivers, with complete passes to seven. If you have any hope of getting Michael Gallup on your team, do it. Now. He’s going to have a monster season as Amari Cooper’s understudy. Tight ends Blake Jarwin and Jason Witten each caught touchdown passes on Sunday, as did Randall Cobb.
Green Bay’s Smiths could be singing ‘Barbarism Begins at Home.’
In an effort to improve their defense, the Packers went after two Smiths in free agency — former Redskins edge rusher Preston, and ex-Ravens end Za’Darius. Against Chicago’s offensive line in the 2019 season opener, the Smiths were absolutely transcendent, totaling two sacks and 16 total pressures between them — by far the highest total for a tandem in Week 1. This twosome gets the Vikings at Lambeau Field on Sunday, and don’t pay any attention to the fact that Minnesota offensive tackles Riley Reiff and Brian O’Neill gave up no pressures against the Falcons in Week 1. Kirk Cousins attempted just 10 passes, and most of them were quick passes. Give these Smith guys a few more opportunities, and factor in Green Bay’s upgraded secondary against a quarterback in Cousins who regresses quickly under consistent pressure, and the Packers’ defense is one you should pick up if you are able.
Benefit from Oakland’s post-AB situation.
The Raiders shocked just about everybody on Monday night, beating the Broncos and Vic Fangio’s allegedly stout defense in a 24-16 upset. Derek Carr completed 22 of 26 passes for 259 yards and a touchdown, often throwing the ball very quickly to make up for an offensive line that had its difficulties. But the most important thing to consider about the Raiders in the post-Antonio Brown landscape from a fantasy perspective is that Carr has a couple of estimable targets in speed receiver Tyrell Williams and tight end Darren Waller. Between them, Williams and Waller caught 13 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown, and they both have explosive-play potential.
Waller, in particular, surprised with his ability to body defenders out of ideal leverage with his size and physicality, which he then transforms seamlessly into downfield explosiveness. The Raiders are going up against Kansas City’s vulnerable pass defense in Week 2, so be advised. Huge sleeper potential here with those receivers.
DJ Chark, doo doo doo doo doo…
OK, nobody expected sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew to be the Jaguars’ starting quarterback going into Week 2 and beyond, but that’s exactly what happened after Nick Foles broke his collarbone early in Jacksonville’s 40-26 loss to the Chiefs. Minshew absolutely excelled in relief duty, completing 22 of 25 passes for 275 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The pick was more on running back Leonard Fournette, who let Minshew’s quick pass hit him right in the face before the ball fell into the hands of defensive end Frank Clark. Minshew is a low-key fantasy pickup himself, given that the Jags face a shaky Texans secondary in Week 2, but the real sleeper here is second-year receiver DJ Chark, who went off with 146 yards and this touchdown on just four catches.
Yeah, so much for that whole “Minshew doesn’t have a deep arm” narrative, as well. Jacksonville’s passing game could be sneaky interesting this season, and Chark will definitely be a factor all over the field.
Don’t give up on the Browns defense … yet.
The Browns have perhaps the NFL’s most terrifying defensive line with Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi, and while they pressured Marcus Mariota to a point in Cleveland’s 43-13 loss to the Titans, it wasn’t nearly enough for a back seven that appeared ill-assigned and out of place on several big plays. Given the overall lack of discipline, there is a temptation to give up on this defense as a product of hype and move on. Don’t. Not yet, at least. On Monday, the Browns face a Jets offense so restrictive, it had two receivers (Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson) with minus-4 yards after the catch each. Jamison Crowder had 14 receptions against the Bills … for 99 yards. Head coach Adam Gase seems to have created an offense designed to implode upon itself, which gives these battered Browns an ideal opportunity for a much-needed mulligan.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018.
