The Super Bowl is the last gasp to bet on football — outside of the XFL — and this is the time with most bets possible. People love player props — and books like them too since fans usually lose money on them — and we’ve already taken a look at some Chiefs’ play props. Now it’s time for the Niners.
Jimmy Garoppolo passing yards
Over – Under 238.5
Let’s get this out of the way, expect this game to be more high scoring than we think it’s going to be. Both teams had top-five NFL offenses by almost any metric. The Niners were able to push around the Vikings on the ground. They absolutely ran over the Packers. The Chiefs should be the same . . . right?
Garoppolo averaged 10 yards more — 248 yards — than the total number. The Chiefs will be eight in the box early on in the game. They just stopped Derrick Henry when he was on a rampage. The Niners will have to pass the ball in this game at some point, even if it’s just to keep up with the Chiefs’ high scoring offense. Yes, Garoppolo hasn’t had to pass the ball in the first two games, but this one is different. George Kittle hasn’t been unleashed this playoff. We are taking the over with Jimmy G. Speaking of Kittle . . .
George Kittle
Receptions Over – Under 5.5
Yards receiving Over – Under 70.5
Kittle has four receptions in two playoff games. He has three games all season where he had less than four receptions total. He’s been asked to block in the first two games, but that means Kyle Shanahan has something up his sleeves for his best offensive player.
Expect to see a lot of Tyrann Mathieu on Kittle. That’s a tough matchup, but Kittle is up to the task. He’ll be fired up to prove he’s better than Travis Kelce. Kittle will have read that letter his dad writes him before every game and he’ll be ready. The Kansas City defense has given up 5.8 receptions and 58 yards per game to tight ends this season. No way we are taking the under. It’s time for Kittle to hit the over on his player prop.
Raheem Mostert
Rush yards Over – Under 60.5 (-182 / +150)
Carries Over – Under 15.5 (-120 / Even)
Repeat after me: Do not trust Kyle Shanahan with any single running back ever. This game could feature Tevin Coleman. It could end up with Matt Breida getting touches. Raheem Mostert ran all over Green Bay’s defense but that in no way means he’ll be getting the most carries because that’s how Kyle Shanahan operates. His running game is an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, and smothered in confusion. It’s a really good running back, but Kyle Juszcyk could be featured for all we know. Plus, we are getting positive odds. When the books zig, we zag, and this line is fishy. Under for Mostert for both bets.
Will Jimmy Garoppolo throw an interception?
Yes – 140 No +125
Is this the free money window, because I absolutely love free money. Garoppolo is good for two to three passes directly to the other team because he misses a linebacker or he didn’t look off a safety. Kansas City must take advantage of those mistakes. Yes for -140.
DeForest Buckner Tackles
Over – Under 3.5
I like Buckner’s tackles number more than I like Bosa’s — and we will get to a Bosa bet — because Buckner is going to be more stout against the run than Bosa is. Plus, any run up the middle, Buckner will be there to stop Damian Williams. Factor in a sack here and there and over 3.5 tackles seems like it makes sense. Bosa will be too far upfield to be a run stopper anyway. Buckner will be there for any interior run.
Nick Bosa to record a sack -134
Well, the section headline makes this obvious. Nick Bosa will record a sack. The newly crowned defensive rookie of the year is athletic enough to chase after Mahomes and Bosa will be too much for Eric Fisher to handle for an entire game.
