There are obvious situations where you should buy a half-point. If a spread is 7.5 or 3.5, it costs a bunch to buy that half-point. Well, I am here to espouse the benefits of the half-point buy any time you’re feeling shaky about a bet.
Here’s a real-life example. Thursday Night Football this week featured Seattle -1.5 points. In some cases, books won’t even offer a moneyline bet because the spread is so low. Buying the half-point moved the vig from -110 to -120. It’s cheap. The game was going to be close. Buy insurance. It’s not that much money. NFL lines are often very close to the actual result. I know someone who always buys the half-point no matter the situation. Better to push than to lose, right?
Now if you’re super confident about a bet, don’t bother with buying points. If you are just betting to get some action, buying points can be smart. You can’t go broke winning less money but still winning — or pushing a bet.
For the newcomers, this isn’t a normal betting article. I won’t pick every game. I will actually use over/unders for game totals and team totals. I’ll throw in a prop bet if it’s interesting and on the board. I will definitely throw in teasers and parlays.
A quick reminder on teasers: On two-team teasers we get six points to play with. Let’s use completely hypothetical Pittsburgh v. Cleveland line that is listed Pittsburgh -9, and an Atlanta v. Tampa Bay line that is listed Atlanta – 7 as an example. That means we can move that line six points either way — so Steelers -3 or Cleveland +15. To do so we must move another line as well. In this case, our teaser bet is Pittsburgh -3 and Atlanta -1. We must win both bets. Meaning if Pittsburgh were to win by three — a push — we’d lose. If Atlanta wins by one, same thing. We must win each side. Teaser bets are also known as sucker’s bets because they are actually pretty difficult to hit. Everyone puts money on it thinking it’s an easy win and then they lose. We have crumpled betting tickets in our hands and maybe we use them to wipe the tears. Teasers come in the six-point, 10-point, and 14-point variety. We can do three-team six-point teasers for better odds. We will always explain it.
And remember, this is just for fun. Because watching football is supposed to be fun. Alright, let’s get started.
Home teams in CAPS, odds, as always, lines used are the mode listed here. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Baltimore Ravens v. PITTSBURGH STEELERS Over 44.5
Feed me the over in this game. That sounds weird in a Ravens-Steelers game. That’s why this game has a relatively low total.
Well, this isn’t a normal Ravens-Steelers game. This isn’t going to be two defenses dominating and two offenses just trying to score 10 points to win the game. The Ravens defense has not been good this year. They haven’t passed the eye test. They also haven’t exactly wowed advanced analytics. They are 29 in defensive DVOA. The Steelers are middle of the road at a solid 19. That means both defenses are in the bottom half of the league.
The Ravens need to outscore people to win. That’s their new current identity. The Steelers offense looks like it found its legs against the Bengals last week. The Bengals have the 30th ranked defense according to DVOA. The Steelers put up 27 points against them. At this point, the two teams need to up at least 22 points each. It seems like that’s very possible.
Denver Broncos +7 (-135) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The 0-4 Broncos are traveling to Los Angeles to play division rival Chargers at Dignity Health Sports Park. Everything about this game screams to take the Bolts. The Broncos are toasted. They lost their last game to fall to 0-3 in heartbreaking fashion to the unstoppable force that is Gardner Minshew. The Broncos should have a letdown game.
That’s why we are taking Denver. Everyone is counting them out. They actually haven’t been all that bad. They have two last-minute losses to the Bears and Jaguars. They shouldn’t be 0-4 and they are being treated as one of the worst teams in the league.
Also, the Chargers haven’t been all that impressive this year. Their defense has underperformed. Their offense goes in fits and starts. Austin Ekeler is great, but now they have to split his touched with Melvin Gordon. It just feels weird. Take the Broncos in a home game in Los Angeles. Yes, I meant what I said there.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+135) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Let’s get nuts. The Bucs are +135 on the moneyline. A moneyline bet is where you pick a team to win the game. There is no spread. Underdogs get more money for the $100 bet. Favorites need more money — whatever the minus number is — to collect $100. In this case we are betting the underdog to win outright.
The Saints don’t have a passing game without Drew Brees. They rely on the run to score points. The Bucs happen to have a top-five run defense. That’s not great for New Orleans since Teddy Bridgewater is more of a game manager at this point.
The Bucs have been putting up points. The Saints defense is good, but the Bucs may be up for the challenge. They can throw the ball whenever they want as long as Jameis Winston is protected. Tampa did exactly that when they played the Rams last week. The Bucs are one a roll, so let’s ride them.
DALLAS COWBOYS -3 (-120) over Green Bay Packers
Hammer the Cowboys in this game. If Dallas won last game the spread would be around five to six points. The Packers are probably going to be without Jamaal Williams and Davante Adams. Those players are kind of important to the Packers offensive attack.
The Cowboys should have learned their lesson from last week and they will factor Ezekiel Elliott — and maybe even Tony Pollard — into the passing game. If they do that, they’ll have more success than doing the obvious run on first down thing they did last week against the Saints.
The only reason to take pause is that the Packers had 10 days in between games, but those 10 days aren’t enough to suddenly create talented players on offense. Aaron Rodgers can’t do everything. The Cowboys win this game going away.
Minnesota Vikings -4.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Vikings played horribly last weekend, but that’s how every offense looks against the Bears. The Giants defense looked good last week, but that’s how everyone looks against the Redskins offense.
Remember when the Giants defense looked bad against almost everyone else? That’s the Giants defense that’s going to show up against an angry Vikings offense that will look to score as many points as possible to silence its critics. Daniel Jones won’t be going up against a soft defense this week either. It’s tough to picture the Minnesota defense folding against the Giants offense.
Chicago Bears -5 v. Oakland Raiders (London)
The Bears absolutely destroyed the Vikings offense last week. Now they are going up against the Raiders. It will be shocking if Oakland scores more than a touchdown against this defense.
Also, has anyone considered that right now Chase Daniel may be better for the Bears offense? Sure, he’s not winning a Super Bowl but neither was Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky could catch fire and win a high scoring game. Daniel is more of a solid game manager. The Bears need more of that against the Raiders.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS
We are riding the Gardner Minshew train as long as we are getting points. This game is actually intriguing because Minshew and Kyle Allen are both young quarterbacks who seem to have it.
People forget, but Kyle Allen was actually the top quarterback recruit in the country when he committed to Texas A&M. He fell of the map after transferring, but he has the ability. Minshew played extremely well in the Pac-12 at Washington State, but he also transferred in college.
This game seems like it’s going to end up being close when it comes down to it. The Jaguars have to figure out a way to stop Christian McCaffrey — which is not easy — and the rejuvenated Leonard Fournette will get a lot of action for Jacksonville. The under in this game is intriguing as well.
Three-Team Ten-Point Tease
New England Patriots – 5 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3.5 over New York Jets
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1 over Carolina Panthers
The obvious three-team teaser with the biggest favorites of the week. Find me a loss there.
Good luck to all.
2019 Record: 6-7
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
