The Congressional Budget Office estimates that approximately 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed each day of a government shutdown.
Why it matters: Those furloughed employees, as well as congressional staffers, will not receive paychecks, putting pressure on lawmakers and the White House to find an agreement to reopen the government.
- The daily cost of those employees' compensation will be "roughly 400 million," CBO director Phillip Swagel wrote to lawmakers on Tuesday.
Driving the news: The government will shut down at midnight if Congress doesn't authorize a short-term spending stopgap.
- The White House has warned that temporary furloughs could turn into permanent firings.
Zoom in: CBO is basing its estimates on the agencies' contingency plans and departments and the Office of Personnel Management (OPM).
- "The number of furloughed employees could vary by the day because some agencies might furlough more employees the longer a shutdown persists and others might recall some initially furloughed employees," Swagel writes.
- Every agency and department must decide which employees are "excepted" and which ones to furlough. None of them will receive pay during a shutdown.
- "Active-duty military personnel generally are considered excepted employees and thus are required to work during a government shutdown. Like other federal employees, they are paid once appropriations are enacted," Swagel writes.
Between the lines: Members of Congress do receive pay during a shutdown.
The intrigue: The Trump administration can keep certain federal parks and monuments open if it wants to, but they are likely to be unstaffed.
- Departments and agencies can also choose to pay some federal employees out of either mandatory spending accounts or from funds appropriated by Congress in the "one, big beautiful bill" law.
- That gives the Trump administration the ability to pay employees it thinks are critical.
Zoom out: If and when a shutdown ends, federal employees and congressional staffers will receive paychecks.
- In the meantime, it's difficult to calculate the effect of their delayed paychecks on economic growth.
- "The effects of a government shutdown on business activity are uncertain, and their magnitude would depend on the duration of a shutdown and on decisions made by the Administration," Swagel writes.
