WASHINGTON _ Super Tuesday contests will be critical in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. But there are also plenty of primaries further down the ballot that will provide clues about the battle for Congress in 2020.
Voters will head to the polls in 14 states and one territory on Tuesday, and five of those states will be holding congressional primaries: Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Texas. All but Arkansas are House and Senate battlegrounds in 2020.
Many of the congressional primaries may not be resolved on Tuesday, however. It could be days or weeks before votes are fully counted in California because mail-in ballots can be postmarked on Election Day. The state has a unique top-two primary system where all candidates compete on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to November. Primaries may also be unresolved in Texas and Alabama, which both have provisions where the top two candidates advance to a primary runoff if no one wins a majority of the vote. The Alabama runoff is March 31; the Texas contest is May 26.
Here are seven dynamics to watch as the results roll in:
1. Incumbents in trouble?
Two Texas lawmakers are facing competitive primaries: Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar and GOP Rep. Kay Granger.
Cuellar is facing civil rights attorney Jessica Cisneros, who has the backing of a slew of progressive groups and high-profile Democrats, including presidential hopefuls Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Cuellar is considered one of the few anti-abortion Democrats left in Congress.
Cuellar says he reflects his district, which is heavily Hispanic and socially conservative. Cisneros says that's not the case. Though Donald Trump won the state by 9 percentage points in winning the presidency in 2016, Hillary Clinton beat him in this district by 20 points. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the 28th District race Solid Democrat.
Outside money has poured into the race, with a group affiliated with EMILY's List spending more than $1.2 million against the congressman. Cuellar, meanwhile, has gotten support from Democratic leaders including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but also from some groups that have typically backed Republicans, including the Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity Action.
Outside groups have also been spending in Granger's primary in the 12th District, which includes Fort Worth. The Club for Growth is backing Granger's primary challenger, former technology executive Chris Putnam, who has been critical of Granger's role in government spending. Club for Growth Action and an allied PAC have spent more than $2.2 million combined against Granger.
The longtime congresswoman has gotten some help from Winning for Women Action Fund and the Congressional Leadership Fund, which have spent nearly $1.4 million combined.
Trump has endorsed Granger in the race, raising questions about whether a tea party-style challenge still works in today's Republican Party. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican.
One other incumbent to keep an eye on is California Democratic Rep. Jim Costa, a member of the Blue Dog Coalition whose campaign has spent more than $829,000 on his primary. His chief Democratic rival is Fresno City Councilwoman Esmerelda Soria.
2. Familiar faces
Super Tuesday primaries also feature some familiar faces, including former lawmakers and high-profile politicians. Trump's former attorney general, Jeff Sessions, is running in the primary for his old Senate seat in Alabama, which is one of Republicans' best pickup opportunities with Democratic incumbent Doug Jones the most vulnerable senator on the ballot this year. The crowded primary is expected to go to a runoff, and the other top Republicans in the race are GOP Rep. Bradley Byrne and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville.
In California, two House members are looking for a comeback. Former GOP Rep. David Valadao is running again in the 10th District, which he lost in 2018. And former GOP Rep. Darrell Issa is running in the 50th District, which adjoins the district he previously represented. Issa is locked in a heated race with former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio in the race to replace former GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter, who resigned at the beginning of the year after pleading guilty to misusing campaign funds.
Former GOP Rep. Pete Sessions is also looking to return to the House, running for the open seat in Texas' 17th District, a much more Republican-leaning seat than the 32nd District, where he lost in 2018. There's a familiar face in another deep red open seat in Texas with former White House physician Ronny Jackson running in 13th District. Both races are expected to go to a runoff.
Elsewhere in Texas, former state Sen. Wendy Davis, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2014, is running to take on GOP Rep. Chip Roy in the 21st District. Davis is expected to avoid a runoff since only one other Democrat is running.
3. Second time's the charm
Several candidates who lost in 2018 and are making a second run for Congress have primaries on Tuesday. Some who came close to winning in 2018 appear poised to advance past their primaries this year, including Republican Young Kim, who nearly defeated Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros in California's 39th District, and Democrats Gina Ortiz Jones in Texas' 23rd District and Ammar Campa Najjar in California's 50th District.
In Texas' 22nd District, Sri Kulkarni has led the Democrats in fundraising and could avoid a runoff after coming within 5 points of retiring GOP Rep. Pete Olson in 2018. Ortiz Jones, Campa Najjar and Kulkarni are all competing in open seats this year.
Other candidates have faced more competitive primaries despite being their party's nominees in 2018. Mike Siegel is running again in Texas' 10th District, but that Democratic primary could go to a runoff. EMILY's List has backed attorney Shannon Hutcheson in the race, but hasn't spent in the primary. A group that backs candidates who support science, technnology and mathematics, 314 Action Fund, has spent $364,000 to bolster physician Pritesh Ghandi. The winner of the runoff would face GOP Rep. Michael McCaul in a race rated Likely Republican.
Jan McDowell, an accountant, might not even make the runoff in Texas' 24th District despite coming within 3 points of GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant in 2018. Marchant is retiring, and the open seat is a top Democratic pickup target. In the primary, McDowell has been outraised by former Air Force Col. Kim Olsen and former school board member Candace Valenzuela. EMILY's List has spent $209,000 to support Valenzuela.
And in North Carolina, Kathy Manning had the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's support for her 2018 bid in the 13th District, but she's now running in a contested primary in the 6th District, which became more Democratic in recent redistricting.
North Carolina's 2nd District also shifted towards Democrats in redistricting, and features another familiar face. Deborah Ross, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2016, is running there. Both Manning and Ross are competing in primaries that have centered on identity politics.
4. GOP women face first hurdle
More than a quarter of the Republican women running for the House are competing in primaries on Tuesday, including several who have earned the backing of GOP women's groups. Those candidates include Kim, who has cleared her primary field, and fellow Californian Michelle Steel, who is running in the 48th District. Multiple women's groups have also endorsed Texas Republicans Genevieve Collins, a businesswoman running in the 32nd District, and Beth Van Duyne, a former Irving mayor running in the 24th District. Some GOP women's groups are also backing Jessica Taylor in Alabama's 2nd District, an open seat now that GOP Rep. Martha Roby is retiring. Both Texas primaries and the Alabama race could head to a runoff given the number of GOP candidates in those race.
VIEW PAC, a group that supports Republican women, has also endorsed former Bellaire mayor Cindy Siegel, who is facing Army veteran Wesley Hunt in the primary. It's unclear if Siegel will force Hunt, who has the backing of top GOP leaders and Trump, into a runoff. VIEW PAC has also endorsed Monica de la Cruz-Hernandez in the more Democratic 15th District in Texas.
Although no GOP women's groups have taken sides in California's 45th District primary, it features two women, Peggy Huang or Lisa Sparks, in a crowded race to take on Democratic Rep. Katie Porter.
5. What's in an endorsement?
Tuesday's primaries will be another test of the power of Trump's endorsement in Republican primaries. The president has backed Granger and Hunt, and a handful of other candidates who also have support from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
In Texas, Trump also endorsed Van Duyne and August Pfluger, a former National Security Council adviser running in the open 11th District, which could head to a runoff since there are nine other Republicans on the ballot. Trump has also endorsed California state Assemblyman Jay Obernolte in the open 8th District.
The president isn't the only one picking sides. Some outgoing lawmakers have signaled their preferred successors, who first have to win their primaries on Tuesday.
Retiring North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows recently endorsed activist Lynda Bennett, the only woman in the crowded GOP primary to replace him. A former aide to Meadows is also running in that race for the 11th District nomination. And in Texas' 23rd District, retiring GOP Rep. Will Hurd has endorsed Navy veteran Tony Gonzales.
6. Senate scramble
Tuesday will also test whether the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee gets its preferred candidates in North Carolina and Texas.
In North Carolina, former state senator and Army veteran Cal Cunningham, who has been endorsed by the DSCC, is expected to win the Democratic nod. But Tuesday will show whether Republican meddling in the primary had any impact. Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, paid for ads bolstering state Sen. Erica Smith, who is more liberal than Cunningham. The ploy forced Cunningham and his allies to spend resources ahead of the primary, but Democrats don't think that will ultimately hurt Cunningham's bid to take on GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.
In Texas, the DSCC has endorsed Air Force veteran MJ Hegar, who ran unsuccessfully for the House in 2018. Hegar's primary has highlighted a divide in the party over winning strategies, and it is expected to go to a runoff.
7. It's special
A special election is also happening on Tuesday in California's 25th District, which opened up after Democratic Rep. Katie Hill resigned. Hill stepped down after illicit photos of her were released online amid allegations of inappropriate relationships with a campaign staffer, which she admitted to, and a House staffer, which she denied.
Hill flipped the 25th District from red to blue in 2018 and Democrats are looking to hold onto the Southern California district in 2020. Clinton carried the district by 7 points in 2016 and Inside Elections rates the race Likely Democratic.
If a candidate receives a majority of the vote on Tuesday, he or she would win the special election outright. But that is not expected to happen since there are a dozen candidates on the ballot.
If no one wins a majority of the vote, the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, advance to a May 12 runoff. Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith is expected to advance to the runoff. On the Republican side, the top two candidates are former GOP Rep. Steve Knight, who Hill defeated in 2018, and Navy veteran Mike Garcia.
Outside Democratic groups have been spending in the race. There have been some signs that Democrats would rather face Knight in May, since they already have a playbook to defeat him from 2018. The DCCC and House Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Pelosi, have together spent more than $969,000 on the primary.
The primary for the full term in the 25th District is also on the ballot on Tuesday, which has raised some concerns about voters being confused by having to vote twice in the same congressional district.
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