The New England Patriots have one of the most difficult decisions that an NFL franchise can make. They have to decide who their starting quarterback will be next season.
Tom Brady is still an option. He might be the option. But he can enter free agency this offseason, and his contract prevents the Patriots from franchise-tagging him. New England and Brady could be set for a breakup. Maybe. Probably?
Still, the Patriots may end up having no shortage of other options.
Dak Prescott, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston and Teddy Bridgewater, among others, are pending free agents. Extensions will come over the next few months. The options will thin out. The NFL draft will also present a few tantalizing options, like Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jacob Eason. And of course, there’s always the trade market, where stars like Cam Newton might be available.
Here’s who the Patriots might consider as a starter in 2020 if they part ways with Brady.
1. Jarrett Stidham, QB, Patriots
Technically, he’s the most obvious option. He served as Brady’s backup for the entire 2019 season, even when Cody Kessler arrived to serve as the team’s third-team quarterback. That transaction transpired immediately after Stidham threw a pick-six in his regular-season debut. He was filling in for Brady during a blowout. But Stidham didn’t get demoted. Though his public-consumption body of work has been small, the Patriots have seen a lot of him. And perhaps we’ll begin to hear rumblings — which have already started — that they’re very impressed with his development in 2019.
Maybe they’ll give the 2019 fourth-round pick a shot at the job.
2. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
If there’s any player that makes sense for the Patriots, it’s Tagovailoa. He is a product of Nick Saban, who is basically Belichick’s bestie. If Belichick is going to make a significant commitment to Tagovailoa, the Patriots coach will need major assurances that the young quarterback is worth it. Saban’s sign-off would be a hefty one.
And make no mistake: Tagovailoa would be a huge commitment.
He’s likely to go in the top five picks. And if the Patriots coming sniffing around Tagovailoa, the NFL world is going to know how badly they want him. Teams could ratchet up the asking price in a big way. The price is already likely to be huge. Using the Chiefs’ trade up to get Patrick Mahomes in 2017 as a framework, the Patriots would likely give up their 2019 first-rounder, their 2020 first-rounder and a second-round pick.
But Tagovailoa is a rare talent whose stock may slip only because of his hip injury. Otherwise, he’d be in the mix to be the No. 1 pick alongside Joe Burrow.
3. Jacob Eason, QB, Washington
The Stidham selection was an outlier in what we thought we knew about the Patriots’ likes and dislikes on quarterbacks. He was inaccurate in college but was mobile and boasted a powerful arm. He had the raw talent but rough-around-the-edges approach which the Patriots avoided. Instead, they brought in players who might naturally emulate Brady.
But if Brady is gone, perhaps his system will go, too. That could be especially true if offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels leaves for a head coaching job. The Patriots could be starting from scratch. They could go with a player who is entirely unlike Brady. Eason would certainly be a divergence. He would also probably not require the Patriots to trade up in the first round. He might be there at No. 23 where they pick. He has special physical tools but is an erratic passer and decision-maker. It would take a special coach to develop him. Enter Bill Belichick.
4. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
Let’s get weird.
In our description of why Eason might fit, we discussed the Patriots potentially being open to running an entirely different offense without Brady. They’ve always worked around their personnel to create a system that suits their best players. If they added Newton, the offense would look different. But that shouldn’t exclude him as an option. His injury issues provide reason for concern — they also provide a buy-low opportunity and a chance to reclaim an MVP-caliber quarterback.
Perhaps Belichick likes the idea of rejuvenating a quarterback.
“When you’re talking about mobile quarterbacks, guys that are tough to handle, tackle, can throw, run, make good decision – I mean, I would put Newton at the top of the list,” Belichick said in September 2017.
Then again, that feels like a long time ago in Newton’s career.
5. Jameis Winston, QB, FA
He might be the worst decision-maker in the NFL. So why would Belichick want to work with him? Well, he’s also one of the NFL’s most electric playmakers. If Belichick thinks he can retrain Winston’s brain to only make half of the boneheaded decisions he makes in a given game, then Winston could be one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Even Winston knows that.
“You look at my numbers, I’m ballin’,” Winston said at the end of the 2019 season.
Does Belichick think Winston is too far gone? Or would the Patriots could consider the money and time necessary to remold him?
6. Marcus Mariota, QB, FA
Mariota went one pick after Winston in 2015, but their careers couldn’t have taken a different turn. Mariota has always been safe. In 2019, he proved too safe. His tenuous approach was holding back the Titans offense. When quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is likely to re-sign with the Titans, took over, the offense took off. Mariota was clearly holding back Tennessee. But Mariota reminded me of Matt Cassel when he went to Kansas City as a starter after excelling with the Patriots in 2008.
Mariota might be the most natural fit for what New England did in years past. But the Patriots would have to see his film and identify something which the Titans could not. New England would have to raise his ceiling in a way that few think he’s capable of.
7. Philip Rivers, QB, FA
Drew Brees will be the best stopgap option in free agency, but he’s likely to return to the Saints. So then it’s Brady, who — for the sake of this exercise — we’re assuming is leaving New England. That could put Rivers in the driver’s seat in New England. No franchise lets its players down quite like L.A. Perhaps Belichick can help Rivers enjoy a year or two more of success. The question will be whether Rivers’ family makes the conversation a nonstarter. They are based in San Diego, and if they didn’t uproot to L.A., they may not want to uproot to the Boston area. If that became a possibility, I could see the Patriots negotiating a team-friendly deal for Rivers’ to start in 2019.
Meanwhile, the Patriots would likely roster three quarterbacks, with hopes Stidham and a 2020 draft pick can develop into their franchise quarterback.
