It’s been close to seven years since the UFC last visited Philadelphia. The promotion returns to the “City of Brotherly Love” for Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 2, and the main event seems like it could be a perfect matchup for the fight-hungry fans in Philly.
The headlining bout pits former WSOF lightweight champion Justin Gaethje against Edson Barboza in a scrap fans have been giddily anticipating since it was officially announced in late January.
In the co-main event, former two-division WSOF champion David Branch looks to get back in the win column when he faces Jack Hermansson in a pivotal middleweight matchup. Also on the main card is an intriguing women’s strawweight matchup between former title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Michelle Waterson.
UFC on ESPN 2 takes place Saturday at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The event airs on ESPN following early prelims on ESPN+.
Inside, check out seven burning questions about the fight card.
1. Are you prepared for this?
Even the most jaded MMA fan has to be looking forward to the main event of UFC on ESPN 2. I’m usually one who is quick to dismiss the sometimes ham-handed marketing techniques the UFC uses to push its fights, but the promotion nailed it when coming up with a catchphrase for the matchup between Edson Barboza (20-6 MMA, 14-6 UFC) and Justin Gaethje (19-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC). The UFC is simply calling the bout “A Fight for the Fans.” That it is.
Gaethje, who is the No. 9 ranked fighter in the USA TODAY Sports/MMA Junkie MMA lightweight rankings, has won five fight-night bonus awards in his four UFC fights. All four of those bouts ended in a knockout. Gaethje was on the losing end of two of those scraps, but the excitement level of those contests was so high that the losses might have actually made Gaethje more popular and more of a must-see fighter.
As for the No. 6 ranked Barboza, he has cashed eight fight-night bonus checks during his 20 fights with the UFC. Yes, he has gone the distance a bunch of times during that span, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t try and finish every fight he competes in. A wildly entertaining striker with some of the best highlight-reel finishes in the game, Barboza is tied for the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history with seven.
If I had to pick one thing to focus on regarding this fight, it would be the striking stats. Over his four UFC contests, Gatehje has landed a staggering 8.53 significant strikes per minute, which ranks him second in the UFC. However, he absorbs even more blows than he lands at 10.54 significant strikes per minute, which is awful for a fighter of any caliber. No UFC fighter absorbs more significant strikes than Gaethje. As for Barboza, he lands 3.99 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.14 significant strikes per minute. While Barboza’s striking differential is not as alarming as Gaethje’s, those numbers are also not something to celebrate.
Wait, on second thought, fans should like those stats a lot. The numbers point toward a fight that could be a contender for “Fight of the Night” and if history tells us anything, maybe even “Fight of the Year.”
UFC on ESPN 2 marks the 11th straight weekend the UFC has presented a fight card and this matchup, at least on paper, looks like the perfect fight to end that run before the promotion takes a two-week break heading into UFC 236.
2. Can David Branch find his focus?
David Branch was on a 10-fight winning streak when he joined the UFC. During that span, he won and defended the WSOF middleweight and WSOF light heavyweight titles. Things haven’t been as good for him with the UFC. Currently ranked No. 9 in the 185-pound division, Branch has alternated wins and losses during his four-fight run with the promotion and is coming off a TKO loss to Jared Cannonier, who stepped in on short notice at UFC 230 to replace Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza who was moved to the co-main event slot of that event to face ex-champ Chris Weidman.
Branch said that some outside the cage issues and the change in opponent left him feeling empty on fight night.
“Not to take anything away from my opponent, he beat me – it was a beautiful right hand he landed on the inside and found the opening,” Branch told MMA Junkie. “But to my credit, I think emotionally I was just not there. I felt it during the walkout – I was trying to get that fire. It’s not that I lost that fire, but it’s just with so much happening in the lead-up, there’s a lot of things I was going through personally, there was a lot of things I was going through with family and then the opponent switch was just the cherry on top.”
Like the Cannonier fight, Branch is facing an unranked opponent in Philly, but he said he won’t suffer the same fate he did in November.
“He’s a good fighter,” Branch (22-5 MMA, 4-4 UFC) said of Jack Hermansson (18-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC). “He wouldn’t be in the UFC if he wasn’t. I’m taking him very seriously and I haven’t overlooked any of his abilities. I’ve done everything possible to prepare for anything he can do that I think is going to be a threat so I can neutralize those things and cause massive damage.”
Hermansson is on a two-fight winning streak and has four finishes in his most recent victories. A win over Branch could very well launch him into the rankings.
3. What did that last fight do to Josh Emmett?
In December 2017, Josh Emmett defied the odds when he scored an upset first-round knockout victory over ex-featherweight title challenger Ricardo Lamas. However, Emmett’s win was a bit tarnished by the fact that he missed weight by more than two pounds.
Despite coming in heavy for the Lamas matchup, Emmett parlayed his stunning knockout victory into a UFC on FOX main event bout against veteran competitor Jeremy Stephens in February 2018. Emmett made weight for that contest, but he didn’t make it past the second round. Stephens knocked him out in controversial fashion. The fight left Emmett with severe facial injuries that required surgery to repair. Severe vertigo further delayed Emmett’s return to training. He has not fought since that devastating loss to Stephens.
The big question about Emmett (13-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC), who is an honorable mention in the featherweight rankings, is will he be the same fighter he was before the Stephens fight when he steps into the octagon to face Michael Johnson (19-13 MMA, 11-9 UFC)? Emmett told MMA Junkie that he struggled physically, mentally and financially during his recovery, if he lets any of those thoughts creep into his mind during his scrap with Johnson he could find himself in trouble in his comeback bid.
Johnson is on a two-fight winning streak entering this matchup, both of those victories came after he dropped to the 145-pound division.
4. Will pushing in all the chips pay off?
The UFC, ESPN and WME seem to be all in on Michelle Waterson in the lead up to UFC on ESPN 2. And as we know from the recent past (Hi there, Paige and Sage) that type of investment has not always paid off.
Waterson, who is represented by WME, was the focus of a recent ESPN “E:60” feature as well as a lengthy profile in ESPN The Magazine’s “World Fame 100” issue. The push is a bold one considering that Waterson’s opponent in Philadelphia is no easy out. In fact, that opponent, Karolina Kowalkiewicz is the No. 6 ranked fighter in the strawweight division, which puts her significantly higher than Waterson (16-6 MMA, 4-2 UFC), who is an honorable mention in the rankings. And while Kowalkiewicz (12-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) is coming off a knockout loss to Jessica Andrade, it has to be noted that Andrade earned a title shot from the strength of that stoppage victory. It also needs to be said that Kowalkiewicz is favored over Waterson in this matchup.
While there are reasons to believe that the bet on Waterson might not pan out, it’s also understandable why she is getting a push on this card, what with the high profile nature of the event and her two-fight winning streak. Now, she has to get by an opponent who has only lost to a UFC strawweight champion and two other women who fought for that title.
Waterson seems confident that she can get things done in Philadelphia.
“I’m going in there to get the ‘W,'” Waterson told MMA Junkie. “My intention is to go in there and fly. Let it fly and enjoy myself and if that happens, it’s going to be spectacular.”
5. Can Jessica Aguilar turn things around?
Jessica Aguilar has endured a precipitous fall since she joined the UFC. When she signed with the promotion in 2015, Aguilar was on a 10-fight winning streak, which included two defenses of the World Series of Fighting strawweight title. At the time, she was considered one of the best competitors in the weight class. Her first fight in the UFC was a title eliminator. She lost that bout to Claudia Gadelha by unanimous decision. Since that 2015 setback, Aguilar has gone 1-2 and entirely fallen from the 115-pound rankings, where she was once as high as No. 3.
Aguilar entered her most recent fight as a significant underdog to Weili Zhang, who was one of the biggest favorites on the UFC Fight Night 141card. Zhang dominated that contest, bloodying and submitting Aguilar in the first stanza.
At 36, Aguilar’s time seems to be running out with the UFC. She might need a win in Philly to save her job. She definitely needs a win on the UFC on ESPN 2 card if she has any hopes of rising back up the rankings. Aguilar (20-7 MMA, 1-3 UFC) accepted this fight on short notice and the oddsmakers aren’t giving her much of a chance against her younger opponent, the 31-year-old Marina Rodriguez. Rodriguez (10-0-1 MMA, 0-0-1 UFC), who is coming off a majority draw with Randa Markos, is a -345 favorite over the former WSOF champ, who is a +285 underdog.
6. Can Ray Borg catch a break?
Ray Borg can be excused if he feels like a black cloud has been following him for the past two years.
Borg had a September 2017 title fight fall through the day before he was scheduled to face then-flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson at UFC 215. When he did get the chance to meet Johnson at UFC 216, Borg suffered the first submission loss of his career, via one of the craziest armbars in MMA history. Things get exponentially worse for Borg after that defeat.
In April 2018, Borg was injured by broken glass when Conor McGregor threw a hand dolly at a bus carrying UFC fighters and personnel from a UFC 223 media event at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Due to an eye injury, he was unable to fight Brandon Moreno on that card. Borg was then forced to withdraw from the rescheduled fight when his young son had to undergo two brain surgeries.
Not long after that, Borg was sued by his former manager, who the fighter then filed a complaint against with the New Mexico Regulation and Licensing Department. Borg was later pulled from a November 2018 matchup against Joseph Benavidez for an undisclosed medical issue. During this time, Borg’s son underwent five additional surgeries.
With all of that, the fact that Borg is on his third scheduled opponent for the UFC on ESPN 2 card probably seems inconsequential to the former flyweight title challenger. The No. 4-ranked flyweight is making his bantamweight debut on the Philadelphia card – and his troubles continued at the official weigh-ins. Borg was the only fighter to miss the mark and came in at 137.75 pounds for his fight. He’ll have to forfeit 20 percent of his purse.
Borg (11-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) faces two-division LFA champion Casey Kenney (6-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC), who fought this past Friday, on the prelims and he sounds like he wants to make a big impression when he steps into the octagon in Philly.
“But going through what I’ve gone through in the last year, and seeing what my son has been through, that (expletive) changes you, to where I don’t give a damn what happens on Saturday night,” Borg told MMA Junkie. “I’m in there to kill someone. I’m at the point in my life where I don’t care what happens on Saturday night. If I get dropped or wobbled, whatever, you’ll be damn sure I’ve left everything in there.”
7. Can Sabina Mazo make some noise?
You may remember Sabina Mazo for the two brutal head kick knockouts she scored in 2017 while fighting for Legacy FC. Those two stunning finishes, which earned her a degree of viral celebrity, also received her consideration for MMA Junkie’s 2017 “Newcomer of the Year” award. Or you may recall that she won and defended the Legacy FC women’s flyweight title in 2018. There’s also the chance that you hadn’t heard her name before she signed with the UFC in December. Whatever the case, the 21-year-old Columbian makes her UFC debut in Philadelphia.
Mazo (6-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is unbeaten in six pro fights and if she can get a win against Maryna Moroz (8-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC), who is moving up to flyweight after a 3-3 run at strawweight with the UFC, she could find herself on the fast track with the UFC’s matchmakers.
Mazo might not have a great deal of experience, but she has a good camp behind her in Kings MMA.
Moroz is on a two-fight losing skid entering her first UFC contest at flyweight. She is a very active striker, but she tends to miss far more than she lands. Her striking accuracy is a rather abysmal 24 percent.
THOUGHTS TO PONDER
Yeah, that happened in Philly
The last time the UFC was in Philadelphia, UFC President Dana White reportedly paid Brian Ebersole a $70,000 bonus for his win. That bonus wasn’t part of the performance-based awards. White handed Ebersole that cash as a reward for getting his opponent, Dennis Hallman, out of the cage in an expeditious manner due to Hallman’s cage attire. White called the bonus a “thanks-for-getting-those-horrifying-shorts-off-TV-as-soon-as-possible” award. However, it would be incorrect to refer to what Hallman wore to the cage that night as shorts. It was a Speedo. Hallman wore a blue Speedo, with sponsors on it, during his fight thanks to a lost bet.
After the event, White was, let’s say, unhappy.
“I’ve never been so embarrassed being in the UFC,” White said.
Will the ratings hold?
The UFC sure was pumped up about the ratings for the UFC on ESPN 1 fight card in February. The promotion pointed out that the event was the highest-rated UFC Fight Night card on cable since January 2016 and that the ratings for the broadcast, which was headlined by a matchup between former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez and Francis Ngannou, marked an 83 percent improvement over a February 2018 Fight Night event. Now the question is, can the UFC hold on to those numbers?
C’mon, you can’t just give someone a new nickname without telling them
When Karolina Kowalkiewicz arrived in Philadelphia for UFC on ESPN 2 she had a new nickname,”The Polish Princess,” which was a surprise to her.
“It’s not my idea,” Kowalkiewicz told MMA Junkie.
Kowalkiewicz said that she thinks the UFC gave her the new monicker, which she did admit she is fond of. Be that as it may, the UFC probably should have run something like that by her before she arrived for fight week.
Fighting for a job
Ross Pearson has always been a fun fighter to watch inside the octagon, but he hasn’t had much success over the past few years. Pearson (20-15 MMA, 13-12 UFC), who joined the UFC in 2009 as the winner of Season 9 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2012-13 and is 5-9 since 2014. His job could very well be on the line when he faces Desmond Green in a lightweight battle. Green (21-8 MMA, 2-3 UFC), who has been a member of the UFC roster since 2017 is also at risk in this matchup. Green is 1-3 in his past four fights.
His own personal 10-year challenge
Kevin Holland had an unenviable matchup in his UFC debut when he faced Thiago “Marreta” Santos on two week’s notice. Holland might have lost that fight, but he showed no nervousness and more than a fair share of confidence and creativity throughout the 15-minute battle. He also showed an incredible amount of heart and cockiness during that fight, trash talking one of the heaviest hitters in the middleweight division throughout the bout. Holland followed that loss with a submission win over John Phillips in November.
Holland, who has family from Philly, is looking to make good on his own version of the “10-year challenge” at UFC on ESPN 2. The first event he attended as a fan was UFC 101, which took place at Wells Fargo Center in 2009.
Holland (14-4 MMA, 1-1 UFC) meets Gerald Meerschaert in Philadelphia, which should not only be a good test for Holland, but an entertaining scrap for the fans as neither fighter likes to go the distance. Meerschaert (29-10 MMA, 4-2 UFC) is coming off a submission loss to Jack Hermansson in December.
For more on UFC on ESPN 2, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
