It’s been the year of the underdog so far. I am not talking about David slaying Goliath are anything. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the scrappy team that has no chance is winning names. It means that underdogs are absolutely cleaning up this NFL season.
Take away the Dolphins, Jets, and Redskins and underdogs are hitting at a 66 percent clip. That’s nuts.
Here’s the thing about underdogs, bookmakers love them. Most casual bettors and public money go heavy on favorites. Those folks would prefer to take the team they think is going to win. Taking an underdog plus the points has a lot of mental risks put into it. After all, those bets have a mental disconnect where the team could lose but still win the bet. Plus, most of the favorites are well-known public teams that people have certain biases towards. It’s tough to bet the underdog.
It’s not tough for sharps to bet the underdog and any gambler worth the tickets they’ve placed knows that betting dogs is probably the smarter move. It’s just that it’s so easy to take the favorite. It makes sense. The underdog stinks. There’s no way they can cover.
This can go two ways. First, underdogs can keep on covering like crazy. The other option is that your buddy at the bar starts telling you how much underdogs are covering, bookmakers adjust, and favorites come roaring back. This is a no-win situation . . . kind of like picking games.
As a side note, the normal explanation on teasers, over/unders or parlays are in previous betting posts. We are just getting right to the action.
Home teams in CAPS, and we are moving to Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Cincinnati Bengals v. BALTIMORE RAVENS over 47.5
Both of these defenses are actually bad. The Ravens ranked 24th in defensive DVOA and the Bengals are at a solid No. 31. Sure, the Bengals offensive line also features two of the worst tackles in the game and Andy Dalton could be crushed by the Ravens defense, but maybe the Bengals need this game to get right.
The best way to attack the Ravens defense is through the air. The Bengals don’t exactly have playmakers. The thing is, the Bengals are great at scoring garbage time points.
This game plays out the following way: the Ravens jump out to a big lead. The Bengals score a touchdown here and there but it never gets close. The Ravens essentially close things out by the end of the third. This is followed by the Bengals scoring two garbage times touchdowns that don’t matter. I am thinking something like 38-21 makes sense.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -4.5 over Houston Texans and Over 55.5
This is not a parlay. Please do not read it as one. This is two separate bets. Let’s spread out our risk here.
The over is obvious. Right now the Houston offense is running on all cylinders. Deshaun Watson looks great. DeAndre Hopkins will have a breakout game here because maybe people will actually cover Will Fuller IV after his offensive explosion last week. The Chiefs have no pass rush and Chris Jones has already been ruled out. Kansas City isn’t exactly known for its defense.
It is known for its offense and winning early in the season. Kansas City got embarrassed last week in primetime against the Indianapolis. They were absolutely pushed around and ran over. They lost a game to an 11-point underdog outright at home. That’s not great my friends. This is a bounceback game for the Chiefs. It has to be. Otherwise, the Texans may have a tiebreaker at the end of the season. The Texans don’t have an offense like the Colts where they will grind out the Chiefs and keep Mahomes off the field. This will be a shootout and a cover by the Chiefs.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -1.5 over New Orleans Saints
There is literally only one reason I am taking the Jaguars in this game: it looks like a trap. I understand the Jaguars are at home — which is worth three points — but you’re telling me the Saints are only 1.5 point favorites over the Jaguars on a neutral field?
Everyone and their grandmother will be taking the Saints in this game. The public loves taking the Saints. Almost 62 percent of betting tickets are on the Saints. Even more public money is on the Saints. Sharps are on the Jaguars. This is a trap. Take Jacksonville.
CLEVELAND BROWNS +1.5 over Seattle Seahawks
Did I watch the Browns get destroyed by the Niners on national television? I absolutely did — I am glad you asked Mr. voice in my head — and I am still picking the Browns this weekend.
This is an overreaction game. The last time everyone saw the Seahawks they were playing great against the defending NFC champion Rams. They were moving the ball down the field with ease. Russell Wilson looked like an MVP.
The last time we saw the Browns, we all know what happened. That will stick in everyone’s head and the public will take the Seahawks. We get a chance to do two things here: benefit off of the overreaction and also take a home dog. We love home dogs in the NFL.
The Browns will come out at home and do well. The Seahawks won’t pressure Baker Mayfield as much as the Niners did. The Cleveland defense will figure out how to stop all the other weapons around Russell Wilson which will stress the offense. If Cleveland wants to continue to be considered a playoff hopeful, they need to win now.
Three Team 10-Point Tease
Atlanta Falcons / ARIZONA CARDINALS over 41.5
Dallas Cowboys / NEW YORK JETS over 32.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +16.5 over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Falcons defense is not good. The Cardinals defense is also not good. Both offenses are kind of good. Teasing this down makes sense.
The Cowboys will have a bounceback game against the Jets. As long as Sam Darnold plays for New York, this bet is golden. The Cowboys may honestly cover the 32.5 by themselves.
As for the last part of this bet, it’s more belief in the Steelers defense than it is in Devlin “Duck” Hodges as the Steelers quarterback. The Chargers haven’t been impressive all year. They had high expectations. They haven’t lived up to it. Plus, this is a home game for the Steelers in L.A..
LOS ANGELES RAMS -3 (-135) over San Fransisco 49ers
This goes back to the last time everyone saw the Rams they lost to the Seahawks and the last time everyone saw the Niners they were dominating the Browns.
Plus, this bet factors in that the Rams absolutely need to win this game if they have any hope of winning the NFC West. They’ve done that every year that Sean McVay has been coaching the team.
I am petrified of the Niners pass rush against the Rams offensive line which has been disappointing this season, but it’s time for the Rams to step up. McVay and Kyle Shanahan have a lot of familiarity with each other so this chess match is going to be interesting. As always, buy the half point at three just in case.
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 9-12
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
