It’s the end of the year. There are only two weeks left in the regular season. That means two weeks left to bet on random teams that won’t make the playoffs. There’s only a short time to throw a ton of teams into teasers and parlays. Betting on Lamar Jack against Bad Team X — this week it’s the Browns — won’t be possible. Also, time is running out to get above .500 on the season.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Let’s get to it.
Houston Texans -3 (-135) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS and over 50.5
Alright, Houston, show us something. If you’re a real playoff contender and not a one and done normal Texans team, go into Tampa and win the game. Do it convincingly. The Bucs don’t have their top two wide receivers. There was talk from Bruce Arians that the Bucs running backs will have to help in the passing game. The problem is that Ronald Jones is the best Tampa Bay running back and he can’t catch. Breshad Perriman is now the top receiving option for the Bucs. Go into Tampa and win. Otherwise, the Texans are just frauds.
As for taking the total over, the Bucs have been an offensive machine and the Texans defensive backfield is the opposite of whatever good is. The Texans passing attack is tough to stop when all three of their receivers are healthy. All three of their receivers happen to be playing in this game. Let’s go points.
Buffalo Bills +7 (-135) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
We are buying the hook again just in case. Seven points are way too much for a Patriots offense that has Tom Brady averaging below six yards per attempt. Julian Edelman is hurt and did not look good last week. It’s not good for New New England.
This game comes down to that Spiderman meme where there are two Spidermen pointing at each other. The Bills and Patriots are essentially the same teams. They have dominating defenses, true shutdown corners, and mediocre quarterbacks who struggle against blitz pressure. The under isn’t a bad bet here either, but 37 points is too low for my risk appetite.
If you’re looking for a prop, take whatever the over is on Devin Singletary’s rush yards. It’s going to hit.
Two Team Teaser
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -0.5 over Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens -3 over CLEVELAND BROWNS
Let’s go with the third Saturday game and add some action that carries over into Sunday. The Rams had a deflating loss last weekend and almost have nothing to look forward to unless the Vikings lose their final two games. Minnesota is favored by 5.5 points against the Packers in Minnesota this week and will be favored next week as well. The Niners are coming off their worst loss of the year and need to win to keep any hope at the one seed. Kyle Shanahan has a history of success against Wade Phillips’ defenses. All the Niners need to do is win at home.
The Browns are falling apart at the seams. Something needs to change but that won’t happen until after the season — read: Freddie Kitchens coaching or Freddie Kitchens calling plays and installing the offensive game plan needs to go. The Ravens will blitz Baker Mayfield every chance they get. Cleveland has no shot at stoppling Lamar Jackson — no one in the league does really.
TENNESSEE TITANS +3 (-135) over New Orleans Saints
If the Titans are as good as everyone said they were before losing to the Texans they will find a way to win this game. It’s been over a calendar year since Drew Brees has played football outside. That’s correct. He’s only played in domes or been injured.
Nissa Stadium happens to be an outdoor field. The Titans defensive secondary will focus on Michael Thomas and Jared Cook. Ryan Tannehill is still apparently a threat off play-action. That doesn’t suddenly go away. We’ll take the points for the home dog. The Saints will probably win though.
Two Team Parlay
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 over MIAMI DOLPHINS
New York Giants +1.5 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The only reason I am making this pick is that it’s funny. I don’t like this bet. Don’t make this bet.
It’s the toilet bowl. The Bengals actually played well last week against the Patriots. They showed they can run the football. Their defense showed up. The Dolphins won’t be able to stop Joe Mixon and the Bengals rushing attack. It would be very Bengals to win the game that would lock up the top pick in the draft.
The Giants will do the same thing. They’ll hurt their draft position by beat the rival Redskins. Daniel Jones returns. Saquon played one of his best games of the year last week. We’ll take the points here.
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 over CHICAGO BEARS
The Chiefs are on fire right now. Their defense has improved to a top-15 unit in DVOA now that their recent games are being taken into account. Their offense is getting back to last year’s form. Patrick Mahomes is healthy. The Bears have nothing to play for. The Chiefs could still get a bye if the Patriots slip up.
Get ready for a ton of Mahomes-Mitch Trbuisky graphics. Sorry Bears fans.
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 53-54
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
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