It’s important to not lose faith when picking games. Slow starts exist for a reason. This year, underdogs were covering like crazy to start the year. There’s been a bit of a correction. That’s why we are finally over .500 for the first time this season. It only took 12 weeks to slog through the losses and the upsets, but we are back after two 7-2 weeks in a row.
One of the reasons we got here is an addiction to unders. Everyone wants to bet the over when it comes to totals. Overs are fun because points are fun. Finding that right under can be just as fun. It’s weird not cheering for points but once you get on the under train, it’s hard to get off. It’s important to note that sharps normally bet unders — and underdogs — because the public goes the other way. Follow the sharps.
Let’s get to Week 12. Home teams in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Three Team 10-Point Teaser
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +0.5 over Carolina Panthers
CLEVELAND BROWNS -0.5 over Miami Dolphins
Dallas Cowboys +16.5 over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Teasers have not been hitting the past few weeks, but this one is too good to pass up.
The Saints aren’t losing to the Panthers in New Orleans. Drew Brees and company had their wakeup call when they were handled by the Falcons two weeks ago. If they do lose, they can kiss any chance at the top seed in the NFC goodbye. The Panthers are 5-5 which is mediocre, but they aren’t even truly that good. Their current DVOA is 27th in the league which makes them much closer to the Bengals than it does to some team like the Browns. Speaking of the Browns . . .
There’s no way that Cleveland can lose to Miami at home. The Dolphins already won their big games this season. The Browns will struggle to put pressure on the quarterback without Myles Garrett, but the Miami line is a bunch of below replacement level players. Cleveland has found a way to leverage its two running back attack the last few games. Baker Mayfield looks much more comfortable than he did at the beginning of the season. It’s an easy win.
Which brings us to the third leg of the teaser. The Patriots offense is bad right now. Getting Isaiah Wynn back at left tackle won’t be a cure-all even if he does play up to Patriots fans’ expectations. They can’t run. They may be without Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu. It’s not looking good for a New England offense that is thin on talent. This doesn’t mean the Patriots will lose, but they aren’t covering 16.5 points against a very talented Dallas team.
LOS ANGELES RAMS +3.5 over Baltimore Ravens and Under 46.5
The Rams under bet has been solid for the past few weeks. That’s because their offense can’t score points, but their defense is one of the better units in the league. The Rams are now eighth in defensive DVOA.
The Ravens are 10th in defensive DVOA which means it will be hard for the Rams to score points as well. Factor that in with the Ravens ball control offense and that should mean a lower scoring affair.
As for the Rams pick, there are a few reasons for that. You have to love a home-dog. The Rams can’t lose of they can kiss a shot at the playoffs goodbye. Maybe Aaron Donald is the trick to stopping Lamar Jackson. There’s always a come down to earth game for trendy midseason Super bowl picks. I could be overthinking this.
Oakland Raiders -2.5 over NEW YORK JETS
Speaking of not overthinking things, welcome to the Raiders versus the Jets! The Raiders are currently sitting at 6-4 with a legitimate shot at the AFC playoffs. The Jets do not have said legitimate shot at the playoffs.
New York is playing better now that Sam Darnold is performing up to expectations. Of course, those wins came over the Giants and Redskins who are not only the dregs of the NFC East but the dregs of the NFL as a whole right now. Let’s not get too excited about Gang Green coming off two wins against very bad teams.
The Raiders have been competitive in almost every game — even when they were blown out by the Packers in Green Bay. They have an identity and at this point in the season, that’s important. Derek Carr is playing well. Josh Jacobs is in-line for Offensive Rookie of the Year — although Kyler Murray might win it — and the Raiders defense is improving. Don’t overthink it.
Green Bay Packers +3.5 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
The Niners have looked vulnerable the past few weeks. Sure, it was against division opponents, but their dominance early in the season has been tough to replicate. They have injuries at key positions on their offense. It’s tough to take them seriously against a Packers team coming off a bye.
Of course, the Packers better hope they fixed their run defense in their bye week. Otherwise, the Niners will slice through them on a way to victory.
This is more of a bet on Aaron Rodgers than it is anything else. Rodgers will look to get back in the MVP race. Aaron Jones will be able to run the ball against the wide-nine set of the Niners defense which should set up play-action. Davante Adams is finally truly healthy. The Packers may not win this game, but we will take the 3.5 points and the hook.
BUFFALO BILLS -3 (-135) over Denver Broncos
We’ll buy the hook to try and protect this pick with a push. The Bills offense finally looked good last week, but everyone looks good against the Dolphins defense.
The Broncos also looked good for exactly three quarters and then they blew a chance at an upset in Minnesota. Brandon Allen hasn’t looked bad, but he’s not going into Buffalo and winning a football game. Sunday’s forecast calls for 39 degrees. It’s Bills’ weather.
Buffalo also needs to win this game because the next portion of their schedule is brutal. A win will really help them with their chances to make the playoffs. Devin Singletary is getting a bigger load of touches which — as much as we love Frank Gore — is the best thing for the Buffalo offense.
Three Team 10-Point Tease
Denver Broncos-BUFFALO BILLS under 47.5
Detroit Lions-WASHINGTON REDSKINS under 52.5
New York Giants-CHICAGO BEARS under 50.5
The old three-team tease hitting all the unders. The Broncos-Bills game in the cold should go under since the strongest units on both teams are their defenses.
The Lions and Redskins could be a rock fight. Each team will try and establish the run as much as possible. Bill Callahan is essentially running Adrian Peterson into the ground. Bo Scarborough will get the carries for the Lions. Jeff Driskel has shown himself to be a better runner than a passer. It’s tough to figure out where points come from in this game.
The Giants and the Bears under is the only thing that’s scary so feel free to tease that game to over 30.5. This pick might change come Sunday. This is more a pick where we have trust in the Bears defense than anything else.
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 36-35
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
