Cupid's stellar performance over the past one year now makes it the most expensive stock in the FMCG category with a trailing-twelve-month P/E of 197. The stock of this contraceptives manufacturer has surged 620% in this period, remaining unaffected with domestic and external challenges and market cycles. While fundamentals remain supportive and technicals strong, experts suggest caution, suggesting against fresh entry at current levels.
Cupid shares are currently trading above their 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of Rs 98 and Rs 70, respectively, according to Trendlyne data. The stock has also displayed enviable stability with a one-year beta of 0.7 in a volatile market which has been hammered with foreign outflows, falling rupee, valuation concerns, tariffs and war.
If this looks less impressive, investors should know the stock has surged over 4,500% in the last three years.
Nitant Darekar, Research Analyst at Bonanza said Cupid's extended rally has "real substance" behind it, suggesting strong earnings, multi-year growth visibility and a fast-scaling FMCG portfolio. "What was once a pure condom exporter is now a three-engine play - a high-margin B2B export business (90% of revenue, backed by WHO/UNFPA prequalification and entries into 125 countries), a fast-scaling domestic FMCG portfolio, and an emerging IVD diagnostics vertical targeting 4x capacity by end2026," Darekar said.
"Add the Palava facility ramp-up, GCC and Saudi FMCG plans, and a record order book providing multi-year visibility, and the growth runway looks credible," he added.
The company in its quarterly update on March 31, said Cupid will comfortably surpass its FY26 annual guidance of Rs 335 crore in revenue and Rs 100 crore in net profit, supported by strong execution, improving operating leverage, and sustained demand momentum. It further guided for strong visibility ahead, with expectations of achieving a revenue of Rs 600 crore in FY27 and net profit margin in excess of 30%.
The company is yet to announce its Q4 earnings, but its Q3 earnings were robust. The net profit in October-December quarter of FY26 stood at Rs 33 crore, surging 200% year-on-year Rs 11 crore in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, sales soared 103% in the reported quarter at Rs 104 crore versus Rs 51 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.
The company has reported sequential growth in its profit after tax (PAT) and revenue from operations for the past six quarters.
Red flags
Darekar said Cupid is priced for perfection with a TTM P/E near 200X and 43X book value, leaving zero margin for slippage in an uncertain global environment. He has advised existing investors to book partial profits and hold the rest with fresh buyers are better-off waiting for a healthy correction.
An FMCG peer comparison data available on the NSE suggests Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Health Care, Gillette India, Emami, Honasa Consumer, Bajaj Consumer Care and Anondita Medicare have P/Es of 36.47, 41.48, 23.18, 70.78 and 36.12, respectively.
Technically, Cupid is in a secular uptrend and still looks strong for a target of Rs 135+ levels on a positional basis, said Nilesh Jain, Vice President - Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse. He sees a support at Rs 110, recommending investors to remain invested with a trail stop loss near the support. Avoid fresh buying since the risk and reward is not favorable, he warned.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
