As fantasy football drafts are being planned and managers are gearing up for another season, there will be plenty of discussions about which wide receivers to target and which ones to avoid.
While missing on a wide receiver might not set you back as much as missing on a running back, there are still some options that should be avoided when drafting. Whether it’s due to injury, inconsistency or simply their situation, there are a handful of wide receivers shouldn’t be taken at their current average draft position (ADP).
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator using a 12-team, half-PPR scoring format as of July 17.
Here are six wide receivers to avoid drafting in fantasy football:
Amari Cooper — Dallas Cowboys — ADP: 3.08 (WR13)
There are many who believe Cooper will see a transcendent turnaround now that he’s with the Cowboys. After all, he was the WR11 during his time in Dallas. While that looks nice, don’t let the looks on the surface fool you. Cooper is still the exact same player that he was in Oakland.
While Cooper was the WR11 from Week 8–17, he was still incredibly inconsistent. Over that span, Cooper scored 132.0 fantasy points. 78.7 of those points came in two games. He finished the season having recorded fewer than 80 receiving yards in seven of his final nine games.
In total for the 2018 season, Cooper finished a week outside of the top 36 at the position in 53.3% of his games, per The Fantasy Footballers. Draft Cooper in the third round if you want, but it’s likely he’s still the same frustrating player that he was in Oakland.
Adam Thielen — Minnesota Vikings — ADP: 3.04 (WR11)
Thielen’s season in 2018 was truly the tale of two halves. He crushed it in during the first eight games of the season. He was the WR1 without dispute, scoring 165.0 fantasy points over that span while recording at least 100 receiving yards in every game.
Then, the second half hit and Thielen plummeted. After being the WR1 over the first eight games, Thielen was the WR19 over the final eight games. He was averaging just 11.9 fantasy points per game during the second half.
Now, which Thielen will we see? That’s the question. If first-half Thielen shows up for the majority of the season, you’re happy with the current ADP. But it might not be the case.
As Kevin Stefanski takes over as offensive coordinator, we saw at the end of 2018 the Vikings want to run the ball way more. In the three games Stefanski was running the offense, Thielen caught just nine passes for 137 yards. With Thielen and Stefon Diggs competing for what could be some relatively limited targets, it could be hard for the former to live up to his current ADP as WR11.
Tyler Lockett — Seattle Seahawks — ADP: 5.03 (WR22)
Lockett finished the season as the WR14 in half-PPR scoring thanks to an incredibly efficient campaign in 2018. It was historic in some regards as Russell Wilson had a perfect passer rating when targeting Lockett.
While Lockett is a great talent and extremely fun to watch, there is major regression heading his way. He caught 57 passes in 2018 and 10 of them went for touchdowns. Lockett had the highest rate of touchdowns-per-target—seven. No player with at least 70 targets had efficiency numbers of that stature.
Couple that with the likely efficiency regress of Wilson (8.4% TD rate), the desire of the Seahawks to be run-first and with some new weapons joining the mix, Lockett’s ADP might be a bit too rich.
Jarvis Landry — Cleveland Browns — ADP: 5.11 (WR25)
Despite being an immensely talented wide receiver, Landry’s outlook for the 2019 season doesn’t look to be on par with his current ADP, which has him as a borderline WR2. For the first half of the season, Landry was among the league-leaders in targets, averaging 11.8 per game. This helped him finish the first half as the WR21.
However, as Baker Mayfield got more comfortable in the offense and began to spread the ball around, Landry’s targets plummeted. Over the final eight games, Landry didn’t see double-digit targets once. His rate dropped to 6.9 targets per game—also a result of the offense switching coordinators to Freddie Kitchens, who is now the head coach.
Juice would finish the second half as the WR25—right where he’s currently being drafted. But that was without the addition of Odell Beckham Jr., who is not only supremely talented but also a huge target monster.
Landry will be a great wide receiver for the Browns in real football, but he’s not worth taking at his current ADP.
N’Keal Harry — New England Patriots — ADP: 9.08 (WR41)
Taking a mid-round chance on a talented rookie wide receiver in one of the best offenses in the league might not seem like a bad idea, but there’s a high chance it doesn’t work out right away.
This isn’t an indictment of Harry, but more of the situation he’s in. Rookie wide receivers historically don’t begin producing until the second half of the season. And while Harry is intelligent enough to make strides in learning the ins and outs of the complex Patriots offense, it is certainly going to take some time before he makes a regular contribution.
With guys like Courtland Sutton, Larry Fitzgerald and Marquez Valdes-Scantling going around the same time as Harry, it might be best to pass on the rookie rather than burn a ninth-round pick on a guy that might burn a hole in your bench for the majority of the first half.
Corey Davis — Tennessee Titans — ADP: 9.05 (WR40)
While the former first-round pick has shown some flashes of excellence during his time with the Titans, it’s likely that his chance to become a reliable fantasy asset has come and gone.
With a troubling quarterback situation as the team figures out what to do with Marcus Mariota, some new additions in the form of second-round pick A.J. Brown, free agent Adam Humphries, the return of Delanie Walker and the desire to become even more of a run-first team with Derrick Henry, Davis won’t be consistent enough to even have upside.
There are simply too many things going against Davis for him to be a reliable asset on your bench. You would be better off taking a higher-upside player than buying into Davis in the ninth round.
