We’ve seen it before. A perennial playoff team suffers and injury to, the retirement of, or an exit of their quarterback. Since that’s kind of the most important position in football, the team struggles the next year. Finding the next franchise signal-caller becomes a chore. That team bottoms out — and sometimes make moves with the future in mind like trading veterans and loading up on draft picks — until they can find their new franchise quarterback. It’s the normal cycle of things in the NFL. The question is whether or not the Patriots will follow the same pattern now that Tom Brady has chosen to take his talents elsewhere.
The path to a high draft pick is clearly visible. Don’t sign a veteran quarterback and ride with Jarret Stidham. If Stidham struggles early on, rest some veterans, maybe make some trades, figure out how to stockpile assets to move up in the draft and target Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. Remember, this is the Patriots we are talking about. They aren’t going to tank and here’s why:
We are talking about Bill Belichick
Belichick didn’t suddenly go from being a genius and considered by many to be the best coach of all time to a bumbling coach who doesn’t know how to use timeouts or build a team. He’s been prepared for this for a while. He knew this day would come. If he was nervous about Brady leaving he would have fawned over the six-time Super Bowl winner and given him whatever he wanted in terms of cash and control.
Plus, this is the exact type of challenge that will energize Belichick. Like anyone who excels in their field, Belichick has an ego. He will want to prove to naysayers that he can win without Brady. He will be more focused than ever on building a winner. The man hates losing more than anything. He’d never want to sacrifice a year.
We have a historic data point
Given it was only one year and that makes it completely anecdotal, but the Patriots have played a season without Tom Brady. At the time, Matt Cassel came in for Brady and the Patriots won 11 games.
Yes, the 2008 Patriots were coming off an 18-1 season. They had Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Rodney Harrison. They had a strong team. That brings us to . . .
The Patriots defense
The Patriots defense was one of the best units in the league last year. They still have Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. New England just re-signed Devin McCourty. Their linebacking corps saw some veterans exit — Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins — but they have some young talented players there. The entire — and very talented — defensive backfield will be back. The defense is probably good enough to win six-game by themselves.
The offense
The offense may lack weapons on the outside but if they are healthy they should be serviceable. The Patriots may even invest a few draft picks in receivers and tight ends. That would be a risk if Brady was around since he historically doesn’t do well with younger wideouts.
The offensive line is intact and will return four starters from last year — now that Joe Thuney is under the franchise tag — and David Andrews — who missed all of last year — is expected to be back. That continuity is important. The Patriots also have a slew of running backs they can use if they decide to go with a heavier ground attack. The cupboard is not completely bare.
The division
The Buffalo Bills are by far the biggest threat to the Patriots’ complete domination of the AFC East. They will be good, but if Josh Allen doesn’t have any growth this year, it isn’t like a new dynasty in the AFC is on tap. The Jets still have a lot of holes. The Dolphins are making some interesting signings and pressing the fast forward button on their rebuild, but they are still a few years away. Currently, the Bills and Patriots are both even money to win the AFC East.
The schedule
The 2020 schedule is not that bad. Sure, they play the Chiefs but the rest of the AFC West games are all winnable. That’s three games. Split the division and that’s three more games. If they can beat the Cardinals and Rams and sneak out a win in some of their tougher games (Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, Baltimore) they will be right on the verge of a playoff berth.
