Among the many aspects of having a successful draft in fantasy football is learning to avoid players that could hurt your chances both in the short term and in the long term.
No position has more draft value than running backs. It’s why they are the one dominating the early rounds of the draft. Finding a nice balance of risk/reward is fine, but there are some players that you should simply avoid at their current average draft position (ADP).
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator using a 12-team, half-PPR scoring format as of July 14.
Here are six running backs to avoid drafting in fantasy football:
Le’Veon Bell — New York Jets — ADP: 1.10 (RB7)
There is no denying Bell has been a fantasy god when healthy. Not only is he a talented running back, but he’s also had the benefit of working in one of the best offenses of this decade—the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Now, after a year of holding out, Bell is with the Jets. While the volume he will receive should match his ADP, those goals might be a bit lofty to finish as the RB7. The Jets offense should be better with some new additions and Sam Darnold entering Year 2, but you also have to worry about new head coach Adam Gase, who has been known to use a committee more than he should.
That isn’t to say Bell won’t receive the bulk of the work. He absolutely will. But it still might not be enough to give him the production as the RB7. If he slips to Round 2 of the draft, his value certainly rises. But I’d rather put my money on the higher-upside running backs going around the same price.
Mark Ingram — Baltimore Ravens — ADP: 4.06 (RB22)
Ingram flourished during his time with the New Orleans Saints but now joins a Ravens backfield that will forever be cloudy with John Harbaugh running the show. I’ve learned the hard way what it’s like to invest relatively early in a Ravens running (looking at you Alex Collins).
Ingram has averaged 13.76 fantasy points per game over the last five seasons. Solid numbers for the RB22, right? Absolutely. But now, he enters a Ravens backfield that is notorious for using a committee and shaking up the touches to entire room.
Maybe I’m still a bit burned from my history of drafting the Ravens backfield, but I’m hands-off on Ingram in the fourth round, especially with how limited his upside is.
Sony Michel — New England Patriots — ADP: 4.12 (RB25)
There is no denying Michel was solid during his rookie season, but there are some valid reasons of caution for drafting the Georgia product at his current ADP, even despite his immense talent.
First, Michel won’t be much of a pass catcher. He caught only seven passes during his rookie season in 13 games and we know James White will be the receiving back out of the backfield. Michel is extremely talented and should play well in the Patriots offense.
However, in a crowded backfield working in a two-down role and the chance that White and others see the field often, Michel might be a candidate to wait on at his current ADP.
Derrius Guice — Washington Redskins — ADP: 6.02 (RB29)
There was a lot of hype for Guice entering the preseason of his rookie year in 2018. That is until he suffered an unfortunate ACL tear during the preseason opener. Though he’s been working his way back, there were complications following the surgery as he contracted an infection. He’s also now dealing with a hamstring issue even though he feels it’s nothing to worry about.
With the strong injury implications clouding the outlook for Guice in addition to the fact that the Redskins have an extremely crowded backfield composing of the likes of Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson, the upside is extremely limited for Guice as a sixth-round pick.
The Redskins offense is also one that isn’t expected to be among the top half of the league. If he falls to the later rounds, Guice becomes a potential value. But at his current ADP, there are way too many question marks to feel confident in selecting him.
Kareem Hunt — Cleveland Browns — ADP: 8.05 (RB38)
For a player that will be suspended for eight games of the 2019 season after violating the league’s personal conduct policy, Hunt is certainly going extremely high. In that, there is no guarantee the Browns will give him a significant role.
In fact, it’s more likely that the starter in the room, Nick Chubb, reprises his role as the workhorse back—especially if Chubb gets off to a wonderful start. Hunt is going ahead of some solid sleepers in the eighth round but shouldn’t even be considered until the double-digit rounds.
With how much volume Chubb is likely to get combined with the looming suspension, it’s hard to even consider Hunt until the later rounds of the draft.
LeSean McCoy — Buffalo Bills — ADP: 9.10 (RB45)
Taking a shot on the big name of McCoy might sound fine in the ninth round, but there are several options to consider over him. Shady is no longer the running back he used to be and now finds himself in an extremely crowded backfield on an offense that isn’t expected to be very good, again.
With Frank Gore and rookie and rookie Devin Singletary in the backfield getting snaps with McCoy and with the latter’s recent inefficiency rushing the football, there is a likelihood that he doesn’t hit the RB45 mark.
McCoy is a big name that most will feel comfortable taking in the ninth round, but there are plenty of other high-upside sleepers to grab around that ADP.
