The easiest way to lose money is to bet the board. That means betting every single game. So if you’re in a hole — like I currently am right now with a 14-23 record — the best way to get out is to bet heavy on one or two games.
That takes discipline. It means researching games before betting on them. Often time it means choosing games you might not even watch. It’s tough. Also, if you lose there’s no way to hedge.
Betting the board is more fun though. The counter-argument is that winning money is more fun. Betting more games means a higher chance of losing. Even the best sports handicappers in the world shoot for a 60-percent hit rate. There’s a reason there are large shiny buildings built in the middle of the desert and it’s not because casinos lose money.
The problem here is that I don’t put bet amounts on picks. For example, if I put three units — a unit is a standard amount bet per bettor — on the Cardinals moneyline last week, and one unit on a teaser that lost, I’d still be up about three units — since the Cardinals moneyline was +135. It’s too far in the season to switch to units, but it’s definitely a chance to make next year.
Home teams in CAPS, and we are moving to Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -5.5 over Denver Broncos and Under 43.5
The Colts are coming off a big win last week so this could be a letdown game, but the Broncos are just bad. They couldn’t move the ball against a mediocre Chiefs defense at home in their last game. It won’t be easy moving the ball against a Colts defense that’s better.
The Colts play a super slow pace so the under is in play here as well . . . unless Jacoby Brissett continues on his MVP pace and throws the ball over the field. Brissett is second in the NFL in touchdown passes. He doesn’t lack the arm strength to make every throw. He’s just no flashy, much like his team. This is a business-like win for Indy.
Los Angeles Rams v. CINCINNATI BENGALS Over 48.5
It’s a teacher mentor battle with Sean McVay bringing the Rams to the midewest to go up against Zac Taylor and the bad Bengals. The Bengals aren’t going to be able to stop the Rams offense. They may score 40 by themselves.
The only concern about the total is that the Bengals offense has been horrible. They can’t run the football — and they’re bad at a historic level. That has to be frustrating for Joe Mixon.
Here’s a guess that the Rams will score 30-plus points and the Bengals will get some garbage-time points. Maybe McVay gives his former protege a break.
New York Giants +7 (-135) over DETROIT LIONS
There are a lot of reasons to bet against this week. They lost their best offensive player and center of their gameplan for the season when Kerryon Johnson went down with a knee injury. They traded away a strong locker room presence when they sent Quandre Diggs to the Seahawks. Darius Slay was none too pleased about the trade. The Lions defense also hasn’t been very good this year. They are currently sitting at 21st in defensive DVOA.
The Giants have what should be a fully healthy Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones shouldn’t see a ton of pressure from the Detroit front. We’ll take the points — and actually, buy a half-point for insurance.
Philadelphia Eagles +105 over BUFFALO BILLS
The Eagles are my new Falcons. I can’t quit them. I keep betting on them and they keep losing — even though I took the Cowboys last week. Here’s why we are betting the Eagles this week: it’s one of those team A needs to win the game more than team B type of games. That’s it. It’s the only logic.
There’s another reason. The way to beat the Eagles is to pass against their putrid pass defense. The Bills would much prefer to run the football. The Eagles are much better at stopping the run than stopping the pass. This game is perfectly set up for an Eagles upset.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -12.5 over Cleveland Browns
First things first, we aren’t betting against the Patriots and their dominant defense until the don’t cover. The Browns have more talent in their skill positions than any other opponent the Patriots have faced this year. The problem for Cleveland is that their offensive line won’t let them use that talent.
A bet on Cleveland wouldn’t be idiotic. They are coming off a bye. They need a win. They are the most talented offense the Patriots have played this year. Their defensive line could cause trouble for Tom Brady . . . actually we are flipping the bet.
Bet: Browns +12.5 over Patriots
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 14-23
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
