With just over a week until the legal tampering period opens, the Indianapolis Colts are putting the final touches on their big board ahead of free agency.
Entering this part of the offseason with an estimated $86.2 million in salary-cap space, the Colts could be major players if they want. Though we know that’s unlikely, they are still being linked to several free agents set to hit the market.
While there are a number of free agents the Colts should have interest in, here are six players they should steer clear of in the open market:
Derrick Henry | RB | Age: 25
This isn’t to say that Henry isn’t talented or that he doesn’t deserve an increase in pay. But there are several reasons why the Colts shouldn’t even consider Henry on the market. Running backs in general have a short shelf life. It’s the nature of the position, and it leads to a large crop of them failing to live up to second contracts.
The Colts also already have a promising back in Marlon Mack, with whom they likely want to get an extension done. Henry would be a bruiser behind the Colts offensive line, and he certainly would have success. But that contract would not be worth it three years down the line when Henry’s body begins betraying him.
Henry is talented and is going to get paid. But the Colts should allow the Titans or another team to make that mistake.
Marcus Mariota | QB | Age: 26
Some are willing to give Mariota a chance because of his age, potential and the fact that he dealt with a new offensive coordinator in just about every season he played. Those factors do bode well in an argument for Mariota, but Colts fans know better than most the type of quarterback he really is.
Oft-injured and inaccurate for the majority of his time with the Titans, Mariota might fit well in the West Coast scheme of Frank Reich. Mariota doesn’t like to push the ball downfield and when he does, he’s inconsistent as a passer. He often drops his eyes when evading the pocket and while he’s tabbed as a mobile quarterback, he rarely puts up consistent rushing numbers.
Mariota might be a nice project for a team that already has a starter in place, but the Colts are still figuring out who their quarterback is. Best not to sign another one that brings just as many question marks.
Leonard Williams | DT | Age: 25
Throughout his short tenure as the general manager of the Giants, Dave Gettleman has made some head-scratching moves. Among the biggest has to be the trade for Williams. Giving up a third and a fifth-round pick for a player set to hit free agency was simply a bad move, especially given that it was a lose-lose situation.
Gettleman claims the Giants wanted to gather information on Williams. But Williams hasn’t shown to be the player he was drafted to be and now wants to get paid as one of the top interior defensive linemen in the game. There is no denying the Colts need help at the position, but Williams hasn’t recorded more than 7.0 sacks in a season and did so only once, which was 2016.
Williams might be intriguing at the right price, but he shouldn’t be paid as a starter because he hasn’t shown to be all that impactful in recent seasons.
Nelson Agholor | WR | Age: 26
There has already been a connection made between Agholor and the Colts, mostly because Frank Reich is the head coach and they both spent time together with the Eagles. And while the Colts do need wide receiver help, Agholor shouldn’t be on the list of priorities in free agency.
He’s shown flashes since entering the league, but Agholor is best when he’s working from the slot. The Colts don’t need another slot wide receiver. They need outside help. Not to mention, it is probably time for Chris Ballard to find some top-end talent in the room. Depth is needed for sure, but adding Agholor would just be another one the long list of upside players and reclamation projects at the position.
He will be cheap so he’s still potentially a target for the Colts. But signing him won’t have that much of an impact.
Shaquil Barrett | EDGE | Age: 27
Adding to the pass rush is an objective Chris Ballard will try to achieve every offseason, regardless of the state of the unit. Coming off of an insane career season in 2019, Barrett is going to get the bag. He had 19.5 sacks, 37 quarterback hits and 19 tackles for loss. He had more sacks and quarterback hits in one season with Tampa Bay than he did in his entire career with Denver.
There is certainly a chance Barrett figured something out with his game or finally found the right fit schematically. But his outlier of a season could see him net roughly $15–16 million per year on the open market. Even with some help needed at the pass rush, the Colts shouldn’t take that risk.
Barrett never had a season with more than 5.5 sacks. Regression is surely coming for the 27-year-old. Since 2005, only four players have had more than two seasons with at least 14 sacks—only two of which came within a four-year span. Barrett probably won’t be added to that list, and the Colts shouldn’t get caught up in overpaying after one elite season.
Chris Harris Jr. | CB | Age: 30
The Colts are likely to be in the market for a cornerback this offseason, whether that’s in free agency or the 2020 NFL draft. Harris Jr. has been one of the top players at the position for a while now and though he could help whatever team signs him, the Colts need more help on the outside than they do in the slot.
The Colts already have Kenny Moore manning the slot. They have a promising young cornerback in Rock Ya-Sin on the outside while Marvell Tell also develops his game in the slot. What the Colts need more is an boundary cornerback to plug in—the ideal player would be Byron Jones.
Harris Jr. still has some left in the tank but for what he could go on the market and given the need for a boundary cornerback, Harris Jr. shouldn’t be all that high on the big board.
