The UFC returns to the ESPN mothership on Saturday night, as the company heads to Minneapolis for UFC on ESPN 3.
There are a handful of consequential bouts on the card, none bigger than the heavyweight main event between former champion Junior Dos Santos and former title challenger Francis Ngannou.
Additionally,Joseph Benavidez takes on Jussier Formiga in a rematch, which is intriguing on its own merits, but may also end up serving as a title eliminator, depending on how things shake out in the UFC’s flyweight division. And the ageless Demian Maia will look to fend off another up-and-comer when Anthony Rocco Martin comes at him in a welterweight fight.
UFC on ESPN 3 takes place at Target Center in Minneapolis. The card airs on ESPN. Here are six burning questions heading into the event:
Will Francis Ngannou take the next step in his redemption tale?
We’ve seen rags-to-riches-back-to-rags-and-then-returning-to-riches stories in MMA before. But rarely have we seen them play out with the speed Ngannou has cycled through the various stages.
Ngannou (13-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC) seemed a destined to be a cautionary tale after his first rise through the UFC, one in which the then-still-newish UFC ownership group went all in on making the Cameroonian slugger appear to be a cross between Rocky Balboa and Mike Tyson.
Then Ngannou fell flat against champion Stipe Miocic at UFC 220 and looked even worse in a loss to Derrick Lewis in his next bout. UFC president Dana White threw Ngannou under the bus for his company’s matchmaking decisions, a colorful contrast to his recent comments on Darren Till.
Since then? There was the 45-second knockout of Curtis Blaydes in a UFC Beijing fight that seemed designed to be a setup for Blaydes, not Ngannou; and the 26-second finish of Cain Velasquez at UFC on ESPN 1.
The jury’s still out on whether Ngannou has the stamina to defeat someone who can outlast his furious starts. But the mere fact he’s back here, in a spot where another finish of a former champ almost assuredly nets him another title shot, is a testament to Ngannou’s resilience and ability to shrug off his critics.
Is Junior Dos Santos about to force his way into another title shot?
If Ngannou’s rise, fall and rebirth is impressive, then how do you even classify Dos Santos (21-5 MMA, 15-4 UFC) these days? Even knowing that heavyweights tend to last longer than their smaller brethren, Dos Santos’ 11-year run in the UFC has been remarkable.
There was the famous knockout of Velasquez to claim the heavyweight title at UFC on FOX 1. There were the two subsequent losses to Velasquez, kickstarting a period in which he went 3-3 and got into the sort of down-and-dirty firefights that make you concerned for a fighter’s long-term health. That stretch ended with a loss to then-champ Miocic, and you figured days as a contender were done.
Maybe JDS’ always-sunny disposition enables him to shake off things that would knock others off track for good. Whatever it is, he’s 3-0 since the loss to Miocic, his last two wins via TKO. If Dos Santos can finish Ngannou, how can he be denied the winner of the upcoming Daniel Cormier-Miocic fight?
What awaits the Joseph Benavidez vs. Jussier Formiga winner?
Under ordinary circumstances, the stakes in the co-main event between Benavidez (27-5 MMA, 14-3 UFC) and Formiga (23-5 MMA, 9-4 UFC) would be clear cut. These are the top two contenders to Henry Cejudo’s 125-pound title.
For Benavidez, the path finally seems clear after losing twice to Demetrious Johnson back in the day. A win over Formiga would make him 9-1 since his second loss to “Mighty Mouse” in Dec. 2013. For Formiga, it would mark a final fulfillment of his potential. He arrived in the UFC in 2012 heralded as The Next One at flyweight, only to go 5-4 in his first nine fights, including a stoppage loss to Benavidez. A win here would give him five in a row.
But these aren’t ordinary circumstances. The flyweight division has been all but wrecked by what seemed like a UFC decision to eliminate the weight class, but it hasn’t yet been completely carried out.
And Cejudo is now both flyweight and bantamweight champion, and is also taking time off to recover from shoulder surgery. When he returns, he could decide to defend his bantamweight belt first, which would put the winner of this fight on hold even longer
So, the stakes in a bout which would normally be an obvious title eliminator have changed to: The winner might get Cejudo. Eventually. If the division still exists by the time he gets to the cage. And if they don’t die of old age before Cejudo doesn’t get around to defending his flyweight belt.
Like we said, all on it’s own, this looks like a pretty good fight, so enjoy it for what it is.
Can Anthony Rocco Martin pass through Demian Maia’s gate?
Dong Hyun Kim. Jon Fitch. Neil Magny. Gunnar Nelson. Jorge Masvidal. That’s just a partial list of the competitors who likely saw Maia as the keeper of the gate in the welterweight division who needed to be vanquished, only to find themselves on the wrong end of things as Maia (26-9 MMA, 20-9 UFC) worked toward a title shot of his own.
And that’s just at welterweight. Jason MacDonald, Ed Herman, and others can tell you what Maia did to their middleweight title dreams back in the day.
Up steps the latest hotshot, Martin (16-4 MMA, 8-4 UFC), who comes into Saturday night the winner of four straight bouts and seven of his past eight. Like many of Maia’s previous foes who entered on hot streaks, none of their previous foes have Maia’s name value, making Maia a key fork in their road.
So how will Martin fare in his biggest test to date, under his biggest spotlight? The difference between the Maia who beat, say, Nelson and the Maia of today is that Maia is now 41 and has openly talked about seeing the finish line in sight. Of course, that was of little use to Lyman Good, whom Maia submitted in under three minutes in February.
This fight isn’t exactly a title eliminator, but it should illuminate exactly how much Maia has left to give and give us a real idea what might be Martin’s ceiling.
Can Eryk Anders rebound?
Make no mistake about this: Eryk Anders is fearless. After winning his first two UFC fights, he had no problem making a huge jump in competition, going to Brazil and engaging Lyoto Machida in a five-round fight on Machida’s home turf before losing a split decision many thought Anders (11-4 MMA, 3-4 UFC) won.
The former University of Alabama football standout continued to aim high from there, taking a main event against Thiago Santos on short notice in which he took a horrific beating. That started a three-fight losing streak, most recently, a loss to Khalil Rountree Jr. in which he again demonstrated toughness but little else.
Clearly, something’s gone wrong in Anders’ camp. As admirable as his can-do attitude has been, his skills in the cage haven’t kept pace with his spirit, and if he keeps taking beatings, he might never reach his potential.
Which is why it’s a good thing Anders finally seems to be pumping the breaks. Anders meets Vinicius Moreira (9-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC), a Dana White’s Contender Series alum, on the preliminary card. It’s precisely the sort of “one step back to take two forward” approach Anders needs to make at this point in time.
Contender Series guys on main card
The past couple weeks have demonstrated that we’re not exactly sure what qualifies for a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Obvious big leaguer Brendan Loughane was denied a deal by White in the first week of this season because he dared to go for a takedown late. This week, White awarded two contracts after an entire card which served as the most effective new cure for insomnia that’s come down the pike in years.
However, one thing has become clear: If you can manage to navigate White’s constantly shifting goalposts for what qualifies one for a contact at Contender Series, the UFC will then put their muscle behind you. Saturday night’s main card features a pair of Conteder Series alums: Lightweight Roosevelt Roberts (8-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC), who takes on Vinc Pichel (11-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC), and light heavyweight Alonzo Menifield (8-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC), who goes up against Paul Craig (11-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC).
Consider also the career trajectories for the likes of Johnny Walker and Kevin Holland, and it seems obvious: Maybe White uses a magic eight-ball to figure out who to sign on Contender Series. But once you’re in, you’ll get every chance to succeed.
For more on UFC on ESPN 3, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
