There’s always one week at the end of the season when things get turned upside down when it comes to gambling. Hot teams cool off for no apparent reason. Teams that are left for dead try for some reason. Let’s just say that type of week could be the 15th session of the NFL season.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
OAKLAND RAIDERS -6.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars
This is the easiest bet of the week because if the Raiders don’t win in the final game at the Oakland Coliseum, they shouldn’t be allowed to move to Las Vegas. It’s that simple. That Raiders need to win this game for their fans and the city of Oakland.
It also helps that the Raiders have what could be the worst team in the NFL coming into town. The Jaguars have absolutely laid down. Their offensive line is bad. Gardner Minshew can’t create his mania if he can’t get time to pass. His favorite target D.J. Chark is out. Everyone on the coaching staff and front office is on the hot seat.
This is an emotional pick, but we’re going with the Silver and Black.
Two Team Six-Point Teaser
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3.5 over Denver Broncos
OAKLAND RAIDERS -0.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars
Why not tease down the Raiders as well just in case they don’t cover but win.
As for the Chiefs-Broncos game, there are two ways this could go. It could be a letdown game for Kansas City after their big win against the Patriots last week. We call that pulling a Texans. The other option is that the Chiefs blow out the Broncos.
The Broncos have looked good recently. Their defense is playing well. When they do lose, they lose close, and they may have found their quarterback of the future in Drew Lock.
And that’s why I am going with the Chiefs here. Because everyone is crowning Drew Lock after two games. He will have a letdown and it will be this weekend.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +1.5 over Minnesota Vikings
We are going against conventional wisdom. This will be a home game for the Vikings — at least according to the prices on the secondary market — but we are going with the Chargers anyway.
Los Angeles’ defense is getting healthy and should matchup well against the Vikings. The offense is using its weapons. Austin Ekeler is dual-threat running back who can put up 100 yards receiving and 100 yards rushing in a single game. Melvin Gordon provides a nice change of pace to Ekeler. Philip Rivers played well last week even though he has been very up and down on the season as a whole. The Vikings secondary could give him the chance to build some end of season momentum.
This is just a pick against the public. The Chargers find a way to win.
Houston Texans +3 (-135) over TENNESSEE TITANS
The Texans looked horrible last game. They had a huge let down after they beat the Patriots. Their pass defense is horrible. Actually, their entire defense is bad as they rank 30th in DVOA. We’re still picking them to cover — and maybe even win.
The Titans look like one of the best teams in the NFL since Ryan Tannehill took over. No one wants to tackle Derrick Henry. The Tennessee defense has been good all year.
We are still going with the Texans for a few reasons. It would be very Texans of them to win this game after looking as bad as they did last week. The Titans haven’t beat a good team — outside of the Chiefs in a real fluky game — during their winning streak. Everyone is high on the Titans. The public is high on the Titans. That’s why we are taking the Texans.
Chicago Bears – GREEN BAY PACKERS Under 40.5
The Packers offense has struggled the past few weeks. They move in fits and stops. Aaron Rodgers is holding onto the football too long — a bad habit that has now happened with two coaches — and their offense lacks explosiveness.
That’s not great for a team when they are going up against the Bears defense which hasn’t been as dominant as last year but is still very good. I’d also expect the Bears to try and run the football against the Packers defense that struggles to stop the run.
This game will not be pretty. Take the under.
Two Team Parlay
Los Angeles Rams -1.5 over DALLAS COWBOYS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS -1.5 over Buffalo Bills
It’s our first parlay in a long time. A reminder you have to hit both bets to win a parlay. It pays out at a higher rate though so the risk is worth the reward.
The Rams and Cowboys game is a tale of two teams going in different directions. The Rams are finally playing well and look healthy. The Cowboys look horrible. Let’s play the momentum.
The Steelers defense is one of the best in the league. Josh Allen struggled against the Ravens defense last week. The Baltimore defense is good but it’s not Steelers good. It’s tough to trust Allen in a big spot here. The Steelers should be able to put up enough points to win this game as long as Duck Hodges doesn’t turn the ball over.
2019 Record: 51-50
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
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