We did it! We ended the regular season over .500 — and I bet you thought I was going to say we made it to wild-card weekend. A 6-3 record — and hitting on two parlays — helped save the season and now it’s time to keep the hot streak going into the playoffs.
Playoffs best bets are a bit different than the normal best bets during the regular season. We will bet on every single game. If there’s a total we like, we will take it, but there will be at least four game bets/picks.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Buffalo Bills +125 over HOUSTON TEXANS
Under 43.5
Let’s get started with a bold prediction. The Buffalo Bills will win their first playoff game in forever with a victory over the Texans. We aren’t even taking the points and you should always just take the points and not get cute — for record-keeping purposes we will take the points as well.
This is a simple pick because the Buffalo Bills have been more consistent this year. The argument that they haven’t beaten anyone is kind of odd since they could have beaten the Patriots twice, but everyone says the Patriots aren’t good either. They embarrassed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in Dallas. They won the games they should have won. Buffalo has been more consistent than Houston by any measure this year. That’s a fact.
Now, I would switch this bet if Will Fuller was playing but all reports say that it’s a longshot he will play in this game. That means Tre’Davious White gets to match up with DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of the Buffalo defense gets to do what it does, which is shut down opposing offenses. This isn’t rocket science. J.J. Watt is coming back from injury, but he’s not going to be able to make a huge impact in his first game back after being out most of the season.
The over kind of looked tasty, but it’s tough to take the over in any game where the Bills are playing because Josh Allen hasn’t proven he can move an offense consistently. The Bills make just enough plays to win this game.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -4.5 over Tennessee Titans
Under 44.5
I know. I know. Everyone loves the Titans in this game and this where the underdog moneyline is actually a play. I recognize everyone is waiting for the Patriots dynasty to die. I just don’t think it happens this week, at home, in bad weather.
It will be raining or snowing depending on how cold it gets in Foxborough Massachusetts. That benefits the defenses in this game and the Patriots defense is better than the Titans defense — last weekend was an aberration. Plus, the Titans offense is predicated on big plays in the passing game. The weather may put a slight hindrance on Ryan Tannehill’s ability to go deep after play action.
Really this pick is based on sheer confidence that if this is Tom Brady’s last game in New England — it isn’t — that he won’t want to walk away from Gillette Stadium a loser. The Patriots dynasty lives on one more week until they get absolutely worked by the Chiefs.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7 (-135) over Minnesota Vikings
The revenge for the Minnesota Miracle will happen in New Orleans this week. Per usual, please buy the hook for insurance purposes at 7.5.
There are two fun gambling rules here to take advantage of: don’t bet against the Saints at home in the dome, and don’t bet on Kirk Cousins in any meaningful game. Take it to the house.
The Saints defense should be able to stop the Vikings rushing attack which should put the game in Cousins’ hands. Read that sentence again and tell me if you’re comfortable taking the Vikings. Also, a Bill Simmons playoff betting rule that still holds true: always bet on the better quarterback, and also only pick an underdog if you think they have a real shot of winning this game.
The only thing that scares me in the slightest is that the offense lacks weapons outside of Michael Thomas. Alvin Kamara simply hasn’t been old Kamara this season. I don’t trust the small sample size at the end of the season. Jared Cook could fill in as the second weapon, but the Vikings defense has the talent to slow down the tight end.
Still, take the Saints.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +1.5 over Seattle Seahawks
The Eagles are home-dogs against the 11-win Seahawks. That makes sense. What doesn’t make sense is why so many people are on the Seahawks at an alarming rate.
When everyone is betting on one team, go the other way. There’s a reason that there are tall shiny-buildings built in the desert and it’s not because they give away easy wins.
The Eagles aren’t at full strength — especially if Zach Ertz doesn’t play this Sunday — but they finally have some players who have stepped up. Miles Sanders should be healthy. Boston Scott provides a nice change of pace. Greg Ward may be just good enough to give the Eagles a true outside receiving threat.
The Seahawks aren’t healthy either. They will have to rely on Russell Wilson to win this game. The Eagles won’t let Marshawn Lynch — coming off whatever he was doing this season — create a running threat for Seattle. So it’s all on Wilson’s shoulders.
We’ve seen this game before. A team that barely won it’s division and had a poor regular season record hosts a team that should be superior based on performance and record. In fact, it happened in Seattle once.
2019 Record: 61-60-2
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
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