You’re currently coming out of a long weekend haze, trying to figure out how many calories you had from Wednesday night all the way into Saturday. It’s been a week full of food, drinks, friends, family, and football. Now you get more football on Sunday. There are some really good games. Those games may not be the best contests to bet on, but what else are you going to do on Sunday?
If you followed our advice for Thanksgiving you started the week with a nice 5-2 record. Let’s get right to the games.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Cleveland Browns -1.5 over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
If this was Mason Rudolph at the helm for the Steelers then we’d hammer the Browns. Rudolph is not the answer for the Steelers and they probably need to realize that in a permanent fashion sooner than later. They figured it out in the short term since they are starting Duck Hodges.
The under is also an interesting thought in this game. The only reason this spread is close is because of how good the Steelers defense has been since adding Minkah Fitzpatrick. T.J. Watt should be at the top of the list for consideration for Defensive Player of the Year.
The problem for Pittsburgh will be their ability to score. Everyone is injured. The Browns should be able to put up enough points to win the game here. Baker Mayfield is suddenly good again. The Browns LSU receiver contingent is finally getting open and putting up big numbers. Cleveland’s two-headed running attack is rounding into form.
The Browns can’t make a playoff run unless they win this game. They survive for another week.
Green Bay Packers – NEW YORK GIANTS over 45.5
The easy pick here would be to take the Packers -6.5, but the smarter pick would be to just take the over. The Packers defense has been struggling and they aren’t great at stopping the run. Now they play Saquon Barkley. The Giants offense is essentially the Carolina offense and they put up 16 points — should have been at least 22 points — in some crappy weather in Lambeau. Let’s say we get three touchdowns from New York.
We will get at least four touchdowns from the Packers. They were embarrassed on national television last Sunday. This means we can expect an Aaron Rodgers game where he slings the ball all over the field to show that he and the Packers offense are still a force to be reckoned with. The Giants have the 27th ranked defensive DVOA. The Packers have the 22nd ranked defensive DVOA.
New England Patriots -3 (-120) over HOUSTON TEXANS
If there were any time in the history of this rivalry — on-sided rivalry — for the Texans to win this game, it’s this Sunday night. The problem for the Texans is that the Patriots are coming in hot on defense and probably angry on offense.
This will be the first week in the past three that the Patriots are playing in good weather since the game will be in a dome. It also doesn’t help that the Houston defense hasn’t been good since J.J. Watt went down.
Everyone is saying that the Patriots may struggle with Deshaun Watson since he’s a mobile quarterback, but they’ve played mobile quarterbacks outside of Lamar Jackson and done just fine.
Bill O’Brien is 0-5 against Bill Belichick. If you want to bet that will change, feel free. I won’t be doing it.
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Vikings are coming off a bye. Kirk Cousins already broke the primetime curse earlier this year. Minnesota is one spot ahead of Seattle in DVOA — but six spots ahead of them when defenses are compared.
The Seahawks have been winning games in odd ways this year. That’s fine, but it’s tougher to do that against disciplined teams. The Vikings are coached well where they won’t make certain mistakes against Seattle that other teams have made.
Sixty-one percent of the bets are on the Seahawks according to Action Network. Only 53 percent of the money is on Seattle. There’s a plus-eight percent of sharp money on Minnesota. It’s just a feeling that Minnesota pulls this one out.
Tennessee Titans – INDIANAPOLIS COLTS under 43.5
This under is a pick based on pace and style. The Colts were one of the slower-paced teams in the league early in the season. They are in the middle of the pack now. Tennessee has played slower than the Colts.
Both teams will want to rely on their defense. Both teams will try and stay in the heavy run game. Derrick Henry is apparently just rounding into form coming into the last third of the season. Jonathan Williams will be the premier back for the Colts.
Just take the under in this game. It could turn into a field goal battle.
Two Bet Six-Point Tease
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3.5 over Oakland Raiders
Raiders-CHIEFS over 45.5
There’s an old-time gambling ruled that says “do not bet against Andy Reid after a bye.” He’s 17-3 all-time after a bye and 10-1 at home after a bye. The Chiefs are playing this game in Kansas City.
The problem here that the 9.5 point spread is way too much to be laying in a divisional matchup — nevermind a divisional matchup that the Raiders need to win to stay in the playoff race.
So we will go with the tease. If you can buy an extra half point — or even a full point — to bring this number a bit lower go ahead. Maybe even add the Eagles to the tease and make a 10-point three-teamer — definitely do that.
If you just want to take this game its the Chiefs teased down and the over teased down. Easy money.
Good luck this weekend
2019 Record: 44-41
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
