It seems like every year there’s a hot team. Two years ago a lot of people thought the Niners would make their way into the playoff conversation. Anyone who picked San Francisco was just one year off — not bad really. Last year, the hot team was the Browns. They had just picked up Odell Beckham Jr. They finished the year on a nice little run in 2018. Baker Mayfield was going to build on his last year. Freddie Kitchens did well as offensive coordinator. Of course, we all know how that went. Maybe we were all one year too early with the Browns as well. That’s the point of all of this. Some teams will get hyped past their ability and their season will be disappointing because so much was expected. So who is this year’s 2017 Niners or 2018 Browns? Here are a few thoughts:
Arizona Cardinals
It almost fits the playbook to a tee. Kyler Murray is coming off an Offensive Rookie of the Year honor. Kliff Kingsbury is in his second year implementing his system in Arizona. The Cardinals added a big-name wide receiver when they traded for DeAndre Hopkins. They can add offensive line help in the draft or focus on improving their defense.
The problem for the Cardinals is that they are still very young and they may be in the most difficult division in the NFL. The NFC West is stacked. There’s more tape on Murray and teams will force him into tougher situations. Kliff Kingsbury was lauded for his performance last year, but the Cardinals didn’t even finish .500. This could be Texas Tech all over again.
Still, expect the Cardinals to be a lot of folks’ sleeper team when it comes time to choose a squad that will make a surprising run at the playoffs.
New York Jets
A lot of people thought the Jets would finish second in the AFC East last year. It was a coin flip between the Jets and the Bills . . . and we all know how that ended. Now the Bills are going to be expected to win the AFC East, and the Jets will be the sleeper team that everyone wants to pick to make a run at a wild card.
It makes sense. Sam Darnold will get his second year in Adam Gase’s scheme — there we go with the second-year situation again — and the Jets have a high draft pick to use on whatever position they might need. The Patriots are theoretically out of New York’s way. The Dolphins aren’t ready to make a run yet. Plus, the Jets get national media coverage due to their large market. People will be pumping up the Jets by the time the season rolls around.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This makes no sense at first look, but the Bucs almost fit everything we need. Bruce Arians in his second year — it’s a theme at this point — and the Bucs just added the greatest quarterback of all time. Mind you, most of the national media agrees that Brady lost a step last year, so now putting them in the Super Bowl is a bit confusing.
Betting markets are acting similarly with the Bucs to how they acted to the Browns last season. Tampa moved from +3300 to between +1200 and +1600 at different books. We are making the assumption that Brady will fit into the Bucs offense. We are also guessing that the Bucs defense will be able to replicate last year’s success.
The Bucs are also in a very tough division. The Saints are going to be good. The Falcons are trying to reload. The Panthers may surprise people. There’s a chance the Bucs could fall flat.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts just picked up DeForest Buckner and Philip Rivers. They have one of the best offensive lines in football. They have a young defense. They don’t have a first-round draft pick, but they don’t need it. A lot of people will be picking the Colts to win the AFC South, and they will be a sleeper Super Bowl pick in the AFC.
The problem is that Rivers wasn’t all that good last year. The Colts need more production from their weapons on the outside and Marlon Mack needs to stay healthy for their rushing attack.
The Titans should be considered the top team in the AFC South. The Texans will be competitive. It’s not a slam dunk for the Colts.
Dallas Cowboys
Get ready for that Cowboys hype train to come screaming full force into the station because it’s the Cowboys and we always have to consider the Cowboys when it comes to the Super Bowl.
What if the problem wasn’t Jason Garrett? What if their offensive line is breaking down? What if Dak Prescott just isn’t consistent? What if Amari Cooper only plays when he wants to or Ezekiel Elliot breaks down from usage. The Dallas defense has some talented players, but it underperformed last year. Maybe the Cowboys are what they were under Garrett: a mercurial team that doesn’t play up to its potential.
Cleveland Browns
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Someone out there is going to hype up the Browns. They just added offensive line help in Jack Conklin. They can play a bunch of two tight end sets now that they Austin Hooper. Kevin Stefanski is going to fix Baker Mayfield’s bad habits and Odell Beckham Jr. will come back with a vengeance. The defense will be better than it was last season.
That could all happen. The problem for the Browns is that the AFC North is still extremely tough. We don’t know how Stefanski will adjust to being a head coach. Maybe Mayfield’s bad habits under pressure will never be fixed. We simply don’t know what’s going to happen so picking the Browns to make a playoff run seems a little risky.
