BENGALURU: An analysis of vaccine stock in the US, the UK, EU, Canada and Japan, has found there are currently (by September-end) 500 million vaccine doses available for redistribution, whereas 1.2 billion doses will potentially be available by the year-end.
The analysis was conducted by UK-based science information and analytics company Airfinity and endorsed by the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations.
Of the 500 million doses available for redistribution, about 360 million are earmarked for donation, as are around 1 billion of the 1.2 billion doses expected to be available by the end of the year. While a complete report will be officially released on September 7, Airfinity shared an abridged version of the report with select journalists from across the world, including TOI.
The analysis predicts what these nations need going forward and what is available to be sent elsewhere. It assumes western countries will continue their vaccination programmes for everyone above 12 years, and also proceed with booster shots for all.
Rasmus Bech Hansen, cofounder and CEO, Airfinity, said: “The world has reached a tipping point when it comes to vaccine availability and production. For large western countries the challenge is no longer supply, but demand. The global supply chain is increasing production and our forecast shows that high income countries can have confidence that there is plenty of doses coming. This should reduce the need for stockpiling.”
Booster doses for all
Explaining the method used for the analysis, the firm said calculations were based on supply forecasts to each country. Surplus doses scenarios account for initial vaccination campaigns and booster doses for all. The remaining is counted as available for redistribution.
“The scenarios shows the real-world uptake of vaccines and boosters for all (based on current data) and then compares this against an 80% uptake rate under different vaccination and booster scenarios, to show how many doses could be remaining from the agreed supply of approved vaccines,” it added.
On top of vaccine doses which are currently available, there are plenty coming down the line, Airfinity said, adding that global vaccine production has increased, with production hitting a total of 6-billion doses to date.
As per the analysis, manufacturers are currently producing 1.5 billion doses per month and this is expected to continue growing. Around 11.3 billion doses are required to vaccinate the world’s population and Airfinity forecasts show output will reach that figure by the end of 2021.
While more than 1 billion doses have been pledged to be donated by the G7 and EU, less than 15% has been delivered. Analysis shows that more than 1.2 billion doses could be available for donation by the G7 in 2021 alone, while still maintaining stock for domestic booster doses for all adults.
“How these stocks are distributed, where they go and whether they are re-sold or donated is ultimately a political decision. With these numbers, I believe the world has a better basis for making these critical allocation decisions and avoiding wasted doses,” Hansen added.
